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Technology Stocks : Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates -- VSEA
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To: cluka who wrote (1884)5/1/2009 3:53:17 PM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (1) of 1929
 
Conference call raised more questions than it answered and pointed to certain weaknesses in VSEAs business.

You have to me more specific on this one;
Varian was very specific about capacity additions and they "laid out" certain "precursors" for capacity additions.
"Productivity upgrades" are the first form o capacity additions and this business offers very healthy margins.
PLAD addresses applications beyond traditional implant for example litho ; they also compensate for etch nonuniformity by changing doping profile/level across the wafer to compensate for etch non uniformity.
CMOS sensor is somewhat lagging technology but PLAD addresses certain shortcomings when increasing pixel.
LRCX has zero business at Intel;
and what about AMAT's remaining installed base of implanters - who is going to upgrade those? Certainly not VSEA - eventually Varian will capture this AMAT business completely and there is NO single wafer besides ACLS - as far as I understand SEN Japan) is strictly batch and will try everything to extent batch but single wafer approach will slowly but surely grind down batch.
Varian continues to penetrate new customers. You are "in or out" and Varian is "IN" - it's not a matter whether they get the business - it's only a matter of when.

One comment about AMAT:
over the last 10 years they missed out on certain high growth applications such as implant
Compared to the past AMAT's etch business is marginal; they could not break NVLS copper business but they were successful in defending CMP.
The transition to copper might be bad news for AMAT because AMAT owned many applications based on Aluminum
As I posted on NVLS board the NVLS/TEL colaboration could be a direct blow to AMAT because it eliminates a PVD processing step which to my knowledge is dominated by AMAT.

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