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Technology Stocks : Wintel's Demise
MSFT 245.47-0.8%Dec 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: Bill Jackson who wrote (313)10/8/1997 12:21:00 AM
From: Michael Olin   of 328
 
I think that this lawsuit can actually hurt Microsoft pretty badly. A whole sub-industry has grown up around Java. There are books, journals, training courses, programmers, etc. with substantial amounts of time and money invested in Java. They are not about to lie down and play dead just because MS thinks it can get by without Java. Let's not forget the substantial sums of money that Sun, Oracle and others have invested as well. They will not give up without a fight.

If Sun's claims are found to be true and Microsoft has violated the terms of their Java license I see two things that can happen:

1) Microsoft blinks and switches to a certifiable "100% pure Java" implementation - or -

2) Microsoft abandons Java and pushes Active-X like it's going out of style.

I don't see 2) happening. The average consumer may not care, but the development community will not go along. BillG got caught completely off guard by the ascendence of the internet. I don't think he was expecting Sun to go this route (litigation) to force Microsoft's hand. He may have been counting on just derailing the Java standards train. Imagine what would happen if Sun gets an injunction preventing the distribution of IE 4.0 until all Java code is removed. Java has too much momentum to simply fade away. Microsoft may have no choice but to comply.

-Michael
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