Oil May Rise on Lower U.S. Supplies, Cold Weather (Update3)
By Mark Shenk
bloomberg.com
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise from a two-month high because of concern that U.S. fuel inventories will drop as cold weather arrives in the eastern U.S.
Twenty-nine of 40 analysts, traders and brokers, or 73 percent, said prices will increase next week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Four expected a decline and seven forecast little change. The percentage of people predicting a gain was the highest since July 2005. Last week, 49 percent said oil would rise.
Prices surged this week on forecasts that cold weather from Canada will reach the eastern U.S. during the first week of December. U.S. heating oil, crude oil and gasoline stockpiles fell last week, an Energy Department report on Nov. 29 showed. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is meeting Dec. 14 to weigh whether to cut output a second time this year.
``A sustained cold spell will raise the possibility that we'll see $70 oil before the end of the year,'' said Phil Flynn, vice president of risk management with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
Crude oil for January delivery rose $4.19, or 7.1 percent, this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures rose 30 cents, or 0.5 percent today to $63.43 a barrel, the highest close since Sept. 18.
``The cold should push heating-oil demand and prices up,'' said Steve Bellino, senior vice president of energy risk management at Fimat USA Inc. in New York.
Heating Fuel
Lower-than-normal temperatures will cover most of the U.S. from Dec. 6 through Dec. 10, the National Weather Service reported yesterday. The Northeast is responsible for 80 percent of U.S. heating-oil consumption.
The region will start to see below-normal temperatures on Dec. 3, said Jason Nicholls, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.
The market ``will dwell on weather next week, with colder conditions in the Northern U.S. states likely to increase heating-oil demand,'' said Gerard Burg, energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne.
OPEC agreed to cut 1.2 million barrels of daily output beginning Nov. 1 to bolster prices. The global oil market remains ``oversupplied,'' Mohammed Barkindo, OPEC's acting secretary general, said yesterday in Cairo, where he was attending a meeting today of oil producers and consumers organized by the government of Egypt.
``OPEC always tries to move the market in advance of their meetings and I don't see why this time should be any different,'' Bellino said. ``It looks like OPEC may already be reducing output.''
Refinery Operations
OPEC shipments will fall 0.8 percent in the month to Dec. 16 to 24.3 million barrels a day, compared with 24.5 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended Nov. 18, Oil Movements said yesterday.
Refineries operated at 88.1 percent of capacity last week, up 1 percentage point from the week before, the Energy Department report showed. Refiners typically start in November units that had been closed for maintenance as they prepare for increased fuel demand in the winter months.
``Prices will rise because refinery runs will increase with the end of maintenance,'' said Eric Wittenauer, an energy analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``The 1 percent gain last week will be the start of a recovery and we should see bigger declines than last week's 300,000 barrel drop'' in U.S. inventories.
Stockpiles declined 360,000 barrels to 340.8 million barrels last week, the department reported.
`Weak Bull Market'
Analysts looking for little-changed or falling prices said stockpiles were sufficient to meet demand. Crude-oil inventories in the week ended Nov. 24 were 14 percent higher than the five- year average for the week, the Energy Department said. Heating oil and diesel supplies were also above the five-year average.
Next week, warmer-than-normal weather will begin moving into the Great Plains, according to the National Weather Service.
``This is a very weak bull market,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``It won't take much to turn the market around. Warm weather and a weak economy do not make for a strong oil market.''
U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual pace of 2.2 percent in the third quarter, the slowest this year, the Commerce Department said Nov. 29. The U.S. consumes 25 percent of the world's oil.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 53 percent of the time since it was introduced.
Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the
coming
week. The results were:
RISE NEUTRAL FALL
29 7 4
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 1, 2006 15:56 EST |
