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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Paul Kern who wrote (64931)10/25/2006 10:54:47 AM
From: CalculatedRiskRead Replies (3) of 306841
Oh my. NAR changed their seasonal adjustment to make September look better.

Historically, NAR has used 11.43 as their SA for Sept. They multiply actual X 11.43 to get SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This year they used 11.73.

Actual was 527,000.

So NAR reported 6,180,000 SAAR.

Using the old adjustment, the number was: 6,020,000.

Actual sales plummeted in September, off over 16% from 2005.

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