Troubling signs for bird flu Avian flu is spreading across the world twice as fast as scientists originally predicted. In less than a year, infected birds could reach the United States, arriving in Alaska and then spreading into Canada and the lower 48 states, including Colorado.
The virus already has spread across Asia and into Europe and Africa. Of the roughly 180 people sickened by the virus, 98 have died, according to the World Health Organization. The rapid spread has heightened public worries, and health officials urge citizens to be mindful of potential dangers but not to panic.
Human health, of course, is the major concern. Will some Americans get the disease from birds, as has happened elsewhere? More important, will the virus at some point mutate so it can be transmitted from one human to another, possibly triggering a pandemic like that of 1918? If that happens, disease specialists warn that tens of millions of Americans could become ill and millions could die.
Colorado chief medical officer Ned Colange notes no one yet knows what will happen. If the virus spreads, it won't necessarily be a pandemic. It could be less serious, like large flu outbreaks in 1958 and 1968. It's also possible that the flu could become less virulent as it spreads, he said.
The state has already stockpiled hospital beds, breathing devices and other equipment, and citizens might think about having extra food and water on hand, Colange said. If the disease spreads in humans, it could take as long as four months to develop a vaccine. Scientists would need to first determine the strain of flu and its virulence. Colange said the National Institutes for Health is working on a faster way to produce vaccines.
A pandemic influenza summit will be held in Denver next Friday. Federal and state officials will help state, local and private sector officials work on planning, prevention, response and recovery strategies. U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt is scheduled to attend. Leavitt said last week that more than half of the $3.3 billion allocated by Congress for bird flu will be used for vaccines. States also will receive some of the money. Colange said Colorado is getting $1.6 million for pandemic preparations. Still, Leavitt is urging states and local governments to make their own preparations.
That strikes us as very wise advice. denverpost.com |