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Technology Stocks : Google - No Soapbox

GOOG 165.42

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12:31 PM EDT

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From: Gabriel008	2/15/2006 2:36:05 PM
	of 25

We’ve questioned Alexa stats in terms of how accurately it represents growth in the search universe and by extension how closely it captures quarterly revenue growth. I’ve been monitoring Alexa for a while and compared its calculation of GOOG, YHOO and MSN growth in the Q3 to Q4 2005 period versus the Comscore Click Trends data for the same period. Alexa Comscore GOOG 18.9% 17.6% YHOO 0.7% -1.6% MSN n/a -21.9% It appears that Alexa’s universe of users is large enough to statistically represent the entire search universe. Now, if we look at the first 45 days of usage for the new year within Alexa we find search growth versus Q4 as follows; GOOG 28.7% YHOO 2.5% MSN 12.7% I’ve extrapolated the current numbers for the balance of February and March. These indicate that GOOG will grow search 32% over Q4. The issues to ponder are; - Calculation of revenue based on these search numbers and how has keyword pricing done in Q1 versus Q4 - Split between GOOG sites & network If YHOO holds to a 2.5% growth in Q1 we may see a 15% increase in revenue vs Q4. That’s assuming that keyword prices are approximately the same as in Q4.

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