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Technology Stocks : Google - No Soapbox

GOOG 167.53

-0.2%

Mar 14 3:59 PM EDT

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To: Gabriel008 who wrote (12)	2/6/2006 12:45:55 PM
From: Gabriel008	Read Replies (1) of 25

We should keep an eye on Keyword prices as well. Fathom Online reported a 5% drop from Q3 to Q4. We should continue to see a drop in the post Xmas 1st quarter. And, this should be factored against Alxa's Reach & PV % increases from Q4. Alexa, as of Feb 5, is +15% on Reach and +11% on PV's for an aggregate of +27.65%. Factoring out a 7% reduction in Keyword pricing I'll assume a 5% reduction in the 27.65% growth [assuming this holds for Feb & March - highly doubtful since the previous 3 months included November & December]. Therefore, 22.65% rev increase with a 32% TAC or $2.615B gross and $1.778B net revenue. Other COG 8%; Operating expenses 23%; Stock based comp 3%; Taxes 10% [30% rate]; and Avg shares outstanding 305mm. NAT Profit $627.4. EPS GAAP $2.06, EPS Non GAAP app $2.20-$2.25 vs a Reuters of $2.00

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