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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (28360)3/19/2005 10:52:26 AM
From: John VosillaRead Replies (2) of 306842
 
Interesting stuff. Appears the number of months of inventory of new homes is still very low and you start to get the dangerous signs once you get near 6 months if you use the late 80's historical track. But this time the huge number of investors and speculators could make these stats appear to be much better than they really are and I bet the numbers are more concentrated in the high growth sunbelt markets than last time. Markets much more vulnerable this time (that can throw off national stats) to oversupply such as Phoenix, Vegas, Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Tampa and Orlando. Also noticed last time new home sales topped out in 1986 and didn't really fall of the cliff until 1990.
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