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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Neocon who wrote (150290)	11/1/2004 4:30:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) of 281500

wrong again, take a look at statistics textbook for instance 48% Bushy poll results with +/- 3% margin of error at 95% confidence it means the Probability is 95% that the true Bushy pctage in the entire population lies between 45% and 51% for instance a 48% Bushy lead over 47% Kerry with same margin of error at 95% confidence 3% margin of error individually means 4.24% margin of error for the difference it means the Probability is 95% that the true Bushy lead in pctage terms in the entire population lies between 1% - 4.24% and 1% + 4.24% THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BUSHY FROM TWO POLL RESULTS HAS MARGIN OF ERROR THE SAME AS FROM ONE POLL ON THE BUSHY KERRY DIFFERENCE when each poll has the same margin of error that is why only CNN/Gallup versus American Research versus New York Times should be only a couple points apart typically one poll in 20 should have differences over 4.24% when margin of error is in the 3% range instead, we see at least one poll way more than 4% different when only 5-6 polls are cited this is a routine occurrence, and just plain exposes the bias of the polls MAKE SENSE ??? I have found not one in ten analyst professionals who get it right so dont feel bad my job in corporations and consulting firms has been to inform their analysts what the heck it means the conflict usually invokes laughter the common quote I have heard has been... "it has been so long since I studied that stuff, and I have forgotten almost everything I learned" / jim p.s. hey, Wachovia cuts 4300 jobs the economy is improving down is up black is white this USGovt has done more to destroy truth than any in modern history

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