|DSL IC Market Rebounding, Shifting to VDSL |
There are some nice charts and graphics @ the URL, but here's the text.
Wishing all Amatites a Healthy, Happy 2004,
DSL IC Market Rebounding, Shifting to VDSL
In-Stat/MDR, Scottsdale, Ariz. -- 12/1/2003
The market for DSL ICs rebounded, in terms of port shipments, in 2002, after a difficult 2001 that was characterized by an excess of inventory in the face of slower overall deployment of ADSL than had originally been expected at the height of the of telecom "bubble" in 2000. Total silicon shipments rose from 38.1 million ports in 2001 to 50.0 million ports in 2002. However, because of declining average selling prices (ASPs), total DSL IC revenue fell from $699.0M in 2001 to $594.9M in 2002.
There are several drivers and challenges for DSL services and equipment, and, as a component-level device, DSL IC shipments are largely a function of the growth of DSL services. Key drivers include consumer demand for broadband content and services, new service provider revenue opportunities, reduction of subscriber churn, dense urban populations in Asia and, to a lesser extent, Europe, and strong service provider competition in Asia. Challenges seem to be U.S.-focused, with service provider financial difficulties in the United States, longer local loop lengths in the United States, the problematic U.S. regulatory situation, predominance of cable modems as the broadband access technology of choice in the United States, and content provider intransigence.
In-Stat/MDR has also found that:
The DSL IC market was fairly concentrated in 2002, with the top four vendors — GlobespanVirata, STMicroelectronics, Centillium and Texas Instruments — together "owning" about 81% of the total ports shipments to the market in 2002. However, other vendors shipped significant portions of DSL subcategory ICs, such as VDSL and SHDSL.
In-Stat/MDR expects the total market for DSL ICs to grow from about 50.0 million ports in 2002 to 107.9 million ports by 2007. Likewise, total revenue is expected to rise from about $594.9M in 2002 to $732.8M by 2007.
The percentage of the market represented by ADSL will decline through 2007, while VDSL's percentage will grow significantly, mostly in the Asia-Pacific region. Although SHDSL will grow strongly over the forecast period, it will not comprise more than 10% of the market by 2007.