Sorry I wasn't clear. Those two opinions are different time frames.
On a time frame of weeks to a few months, I am bullish. I think this current dip (6 weeks old) doesn't take out the 10/01 lows. Then, IMO, we will go on, and sometime this summer, take out the January 2002 high (Nas 2100). I am using margin now, following my policy of buy-the-dip/sell-the-rally. I'm guessing we're now close enough to the bottom of this intermediate-term dip, to be safely using margin. I will get off margin quickly, in the following rebound,as I did last October.
On a longer time frame (many months to a few years), I think we have not seen capitulation in the telecom/internet sector, including their equip suppliers. Notice, this opinion is not a market call. It's specifically about telecom/internet (a large sector, but not the whole market). To a certain extent, we are already seeing this. WCOM has recently taken out its 2001 low, while the Nas and S&P 500 are still well above those lows.
Am I being clear now? |
