Jacob, Ok, I'm depressed. Regarding patterns, if we recognize a pattern of not being able to recognize certain kinds of patterns, then that would useful. I am not saying this applies to you, maybe it applies mostly to me with regards to being able to predict this market.
The argument that the internet is greater than those previous inventions is hard to defend I guess, especially on this thread with such bright minds as we have here. My argument may not be valid, but I tried at least to make this argument. The main point is the networking effect the internet brings that is still taking off. But I agree that you may be entirely correct, and I may be totally wrong. With my overly enthusiastic engineer approach to this question I envision many things that may not materialize, such as the preservation of a large part of the world's oil reserves due to increased networking, a great synergy of minds coming together as a result of this great network, to create new companies, new products, new technologies, which accelerates the capability of the internet, which increases its usefulness, and so on. It is all to complicated to really understand, but it seems at least to be more significant than these other inventions. The error in judgement could be explained by Katherine's post - it might just be my frame of reference.
As usual, your arguments are very good, and they make good sense. Thanks for the inputs. You are helping to make this bull into more of a bear, which, according to your model for internet/telecom, will probably save me a lot of money and aggravation going forward.
I am depressed not because I am more accepting now of your model for this tech debacle, but because I was not depressed much much earlier. There has been a financial cost to my enthusiasm.
Regards,
John |
