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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2131)2/26/2001 5:02:58 AM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) of 74558
 
Hello Maurice, Welcome to this den of ours. You may be the single person from down under the equator viewing this not yet so popular thread. Given that you are a bull that wandered inadvertently into our den, you should be prepared to take a bit of good natured and friendly ribbing.

I probably spent more time reading your post than you did writing it, and was alarmed at my inability to think up a comeback. Your sound bites are so outrageously challenging and jolting that they temporarily fused all my synaptic gaps. Please stay with this thread for a while so that we do not have to pursue you to the QCOM thread, weapons in hand.

Ok, my fellow comrades, start the BBQ, and I will prepare the sauce. Ribs are served today, imported from the upside down world of New Zealand.

Maurice, I will address some of your observations, but in reverse order, as it better suits the upside down world you have described in the post.

<<double your money back guarantee>>
With bulls like you still around, dangling bits exposed, I fully expect to double my money the hard way.

<<Alan Green$pan will cut interest rates all through 2001 as the stock markets rise>>
Is that what is happening down where you are? Then a thought hit me and I took my Nasdaq, SP500, DJI charts, flipped them around, and immediately saw that, by golly, you are right! The markets are going up, if you look at the charts reflected in the mirror.

<<Inflationary effects be zero [with oil dropping after being a huge highs]>>
Is that a statement of fact or a wish? And do you have spare barrels of oil to sell cheap? If oil price does drop, it will be because the stock markets of the economies using oil dropped. Cause and effect relationships are tricky to gauge.

<<I should add that Alan Green$pan is my idol. He was never targeting the stock markets, other than that they were a driver for Irrational Exuberance and a wild Wealth Effect.>>

in conjunction with

<<doomster mysticism>>

We of this den have no idols. We observe, evaluate, and see that the maestro allowed the irrational exuberance to fester long after he openly stated his concerns. We also saw that the maestro, believing in technology, yet also believed in Y2K disasters that never were. No, the mystics are not the folks within this den.

<<I expect to see a 16,000 Dow by February 2002.>>
Excellent! Suggest you to take out a jumbo mortgage, deposit with broker as new equity, leverage up with margin debt, and use the whole pot of chips to sell QCOM puts, generating even more chips, and buy calls on all 30 Dow stocks soonest. We will be waiting to celebrate with you, BBQ fire and sauce readied.

<<But of course the herd is free to panic and sell their shares at low prices to those who think the world will get better. The predators are always the top of the food chain. The herd in panic is not.>>

60+% constitute the herd, not the individuals in this den. We the lone hunters are not panic stricken, but wrecked with anticipation of a feast on ribs ripped from the bulls. We are not selling anything cheap to anyone. We sold expensive, very expensive, and are waiting for bulls like you to panic, and panic you will. Panic is only for folks who sold too late, not early. Agree with you that the predators are always on top of the food chain, by definition.

<<The panic in QUALCOMM [like many of the other panics outside the dotcom world] is based on lack of understanding of what's actually happening.>>

Why limit the thus reasonable panic to the dotcom world? It is not as if money lost there is not lost to the rest of the economy.

We will soon reach full understanding of the full extent of the damage. QCOM is but one chair on the Titanic.

<<Financial collapse of 2001? I don't see any reason for it. In fact, I see the contrary. The world is getting better in leaps and bounds every day. Not for everyone of course, but overall and on average and that's what makes the world tick.>>
The world looked beautiful for most of 1929. It takes but one morning realization to see the mistake made the night before. What is it you need to see before you panic? Give us a hint of your portfolio allocation so that we can learn how it should be done and watch for signs of danger, as you would define them. When you do see those signs up close, where do you suppose the indices would be?
Chugs, Jay

P.S.
Message 15410053
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