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Technology Stocks : MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)
MSTR 202.58-3.9%3:59 PM EDT

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To: Beltropolis Boy who wrote (432)3/20/2000 4:24:00 PM
From: Turs  Read Replies (3) of 712
Boy does this feel GOOD! I had given up on my April puts that were bought in late January. But last week, after watching the stock triple in two months, I just couldn't stand it anymore and I bought some more puts (July 175). Made 9-fold on my money today! I just can't believe how many people were enamored of this thing. Moreover, the message being communicated by the company and the press is that it's just a revenue recognition thing related to timing. THAT'S NOT THE BIG DEAL. The big deal is whether the revenue is legitimate at all. Swapping floppy disks shouldn't count as revenue and certainly shouldn't be valued as highly.

Either way, we all knew it was just a matter of time before MSTR couldn't get some sap to enter into one of these arrangements at the end of the quarter so the company could make its numbers. I'm surprised they didn't cite Y2K as a culprit!

Congratulations to all who were patient with this hollow POS. Cash in and go buy yourself something nice.

QUESTION OF THE DAY: Does the stock keep falling or is it done? I think it's probably worth no more than 10-15X revs and there isn't a helluva lot of confidence as to what those revs are. But my stab is that revs this year won't exceed $225m, making proper valuation about $2.5 to 3 billion, or about $50/share. NO ONE will want to get involved with it so it's going to get painfully oversold as well. Any one else have thoughts?

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