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Strategies & Market Trends : AMAZON.COM RIDICULOUSLY OVERVALUED BY ANY MODEL (AMZN)
AMZN 1,807-1.8%3:59 PM EDT

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To: Bilow who wrote (167)8/1/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: Bilow   of 182
 
How are AMZN's international sales growing? We can pull the
data out of the SEC filings...

The raw data consists of total revenues, and percentage that
are international. Amazon's revenues are familiar to all:

HISTORICAL QUARTERLY RESULTS
REVENUE
(Thousands of U.S. Dollars)
1996 1997 1998 1999
1st Qtr MAR 875 16,005 87,361 293,643
2nd Qtr JUN 2,230 27,855 116,044 314,377*
3rd Qtr SEP 4,173 37,887 153,698
4th Qtr DEC 8,468 66,040 252,893

The international sales percentages were wonderfully easy to locate:

1Q98, 1Q97:
International sales represented 21% and 28% of net sales
for the quarters ended March 31, 1998 and 1997, respectively.

edgar-online.com

1Q99, 1Q98:
International sales, including export sales from the United
States, represented 22% and 21% of net sales for the quarters
ended March 31, 1999 and 1998, respectively.

biz.yahoo.com

2Q97, 2Q96:
International sales represented 28% and
37% of net sales for the quarters ended June 30, 1997 and 1996,
respectively, and 28% and 38% of net sales for the six months
ended June 30, 1997 and 1996, respectively.

edgar-online.com

2Q98, 2Q97:
International sales represented 22% and 28% of net sales for
the quarters ended June 30, 1998 and 1997, respectively, and 21%
and 28% of net sales for the six months ended June 30, 1998 and
1997, respectively.

biz.yahoo.com

3Q97, 3Q96:
International sales represented 26% and
35% of net sales for the quarters ended September 30, 1997 and 1996,
respectively, and 27% and 36% of net sales for the nine months ended
September 30, 1997 and 1996, respectively.

edgar-online.com

3Q98, 3Q97:
International sales represented 20% and 26% of net sales for
the quarters ended September 30, 1998 and 1997, respectively, and
21% and 27% of net sales for the nine months ended September 30,
1998 and 1997, respectively.


1996, 1995:
International sales represented approximately 39% and 33% of
net sales in 1995 and 1996, respectively.

edgar-online.com

1998, 1997 1996:
International sales, including export sales from the United
States, represented approximately 20%, 25% and 33% of net sales
for the years ended December 31, 1998, 1997 and 1996, respectively.

biz.yahoo.com

The above links are all to SEC filings. The 2Q99 filing isn't available
to me, so my international analysis has to stop with 1Q99. But the
above figures are sufficient to compute international and domestic
sales for the rest of the quarters, from the above sources, the percentages
marked with "c" are calculated from the above data. The 2Q99 international
percentage is my guess. We will know when the SEC filing happens.

1996 Int 1997 Int 1998 Int 1999 Int
----- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------- ---
1Q 875 41%c 16,005 28% 87,361 21% 293,643 22%
2Q 2,230 37% 27,855 28% 116,044 22% 314,377 23%E
3Q 4,173 35% 37,887 26% 153,698 20%
4Q 8,468 30%c 66,040 22%c 252,893 19%c
------ --- ------- --- ------- --- --------
Yr 15,746 33% 147,787 25% 609,996 20%

One is then able to fill in the missing data, and get both US and
international sales. Of course there are rounding errors, but the
data should be good to almost two decimal places. I have estimated
the 2Q99 figures as 23% international.

International / US sales:

1996 1997 1998 1999
Intr. U.S. Intr. U.S. Intr. U.S. Intr. U.S.
----- ------ ------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
1Q 359 516 4,481 11,524 18,346 69,015 64,601 229,042
2Q 825 1,405 7,799 20,056 25,530 90,514 72,307E 242,070E
3Q 1,461 2,712 9,851 28,036 30,740 122,958
4Q 2,551 5,917 14,816 51,224 47,383 205,510
----- ------ ------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Yr 5,196 10,550 36,947 110,840 121,999 487,997

The first thing to notice is that international sales as a percentage of
total sales has been falling trending down since 1Q96. I interpret this
to mean
that AMZN has been able to find acceptance in the US more readily than
overseas. This is probably due to international shipping (and perhaps
duty) costs.

The second thing to notice is that international sales are slightly below
trend for the fourth quarters, while above trend for the other quarters.
This is, no doubt, a seasonality effect. Maybe I will do a trend analysis
on the international and US sales separately...

-- Carl
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