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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology

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To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (1685)7/17/1999 12:35:00 AM
From: Shane M  Read Replies (1) of 4656
 
Wayne,

I agree that the the numbers on MCY look very good relative to competitors. California I guess was the deal breaker. These things come and go though. Occassionally everybody wants to be in a given state for the growth prospects, and then something happens that makes everybody wish they weren't there. And then later everybody wants back in for some other reason.

At my company we were running from hurricane exposure in the years following hurricane Andrew, and still are to a degree. But the pendulum is perceptively swinging back to freeing up writing in CAT areas, despite the fact that it's actuarially still far from being profitable on a normalized basis. In some areas the normalized CAT loss _alone_ is sufficient to cause underwriting losses. i.e. Before we have the first XCAT claim we are losing money becuase the expected CAT losses are so high. When there's major pressure to grow the top line companies will do unpredictable things.

Shane
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