Strategies & Market Trends
The coming US dollar crisis
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Emcee:  Real Man Type:  Moderated
Persistent high trade deficit of the last few years,
extremely high level of USD reserves in foreign central banks,
and the recent series of interest rates cuts by US Federal reserve
have led to the dollar crisis, a sharp drop of our currency.

Any currency crisis eventually involves much higher 10-year and
30-year interest rates and a meltdown of all asset classes,
with the possible exception of precious metals. This thread
will focus on the discussion of ongoing USD currency crisis,
and the ways to survive it.

Long-term target (~ 3-5 years) if the Fed stays the course:

US asset prices may skyrocket, in dollars, along with commodities,
if these actions are taken to the extreme (as they were) and the country falls
into hyperinflationary depression. US asset prices will fall sharply
priced in sound currencies and gold.

Hyperinflation chart - USD in gold OZ, monthly, is a straight line that
goes to zero in 2011.*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2009&y=monthly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Current tentative scenario: A double dip recession, with the second deeper dip
happening as the Fed tries to battle inflationary result of enormous bailouts. For it
to unfold, US has to come out of recession this year. Realistic scenario for USD:
Similar to 1985-95. The dollar will drop to new lows again and will probably bottom
in the 60-s. The grounds: US external net indebtedness is not that high.
$20 Trillion US assets held by foreigners, $17 Trillion foreign assets held by USA.
A genuine recovery after 2011-12 driven by manufacturing (optimistic scenario).
Hyperinflation for decades (pessimistic scenario).

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final
and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. The
breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by
the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from
further credit expansion."

-- Ludwig von Mises

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom

"Against this backdrop the crucial question is: where is the borderline between a "good" and "bad" rise in debt-to-GDP ratios? To Austrian economists the ratios spell danger. They maintain that today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrians fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order."
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61164Unlike the reality of Xi your hero....get a grip EJ propaganda is fake news, andggersh-25 seconds ago
61163 but surely (no not that Shirley) it must be what you've stated, what else cggersh-4 minutes ago
61162Clever .. Picking 1999 as the beginning year and 2013 as the ending year for Putarun gera1yesterday
61161Some believe Putin is just an easily manipulated figurehead for the 100 gangsterElroy Jetson-yesterday
61160Placing all of your real potential opposition in prison makes it easy to win a vElroy Jetson-yesterday
61159geez, with money "data" like that, it's almost as if russian economarcher-yesterday
61158I would trade Trump for him in a heartbeat, hell, I would even throw in Hilary aSawdusty1yesterday
61157He makes some sense but has far to much trust in the military leadership. Not suggersh-yesterday
61156Gotta agree, remember ever since FDR passed on tptb have done everything in theiggersh1yesterday
61155I find that very kool indeed. When I see regular army guys, ex senior detectiveThe Pre Beakerite-yesterday
61154That is pretty impressive, but things usually, eventually, go bad when a leader Horgad-yesterday
61153Interesting very interesting twitter.comggersh-yesterday
61152Propaganda does work, living proof is are very own Elroy.-g-ggersh-yesterday
61151Not that the man is a hero but I can imagine to the Russians he most certainly iggersh2yesterday
61150The Zuck isn't all that bright, along with all his Hawford buddies seems as ggersh-yesterday
61149Eventually, yes... I'm still not sure this is really that time... this couGROUND ZERO™-yesterday
61148>> This is where buying dips can be very costly... So BTFD will change tobull_dozer1Monday
61147Here we go.... No 10 is concerned about citizens privacy rights now -lol- youtuThe Pre Beakerite2Monday
61146Should be interesting how this one pans out. I think a lot of people world wideThe Pre Beakerite-Monday
61145The Mercers are criminal scum. Elroy Jetson-Monday
61144The election fixers. Pre Beakerite-Monday
61143The DOW broke down below the bearish triangle today as anticipated, this is not GROUND ZERO™-Monday
61142Dow down usd down go figure. Is this the new normal?Real Man-Monday
61141I fully agree on all points... clearly, these markets are not happy about sometGROUND ZERO™-Monday
61140Yea, technically it’s a quake warning, unreliable as it is. Big quakes often folReal Man-Monday
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