Strategies & Market Trends
The coming US dollar crisis
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Persistent high trade deficit of the last few years,
extremely high level of USD reserves in foreign central banks,
and the recent series of interest rates cuts by US Federal reserve
have led to the dollar crisis, a sharp drop of our currency.

Any currency crisis eventually involves much higher 10-year and
30-year interest rates and a meltdown of all asset classes,
with the possible exception of precious metals. This thread
will focus on the discussion of ongoing USD currency crisis,
and the ways to survive it.

Long-term target (~ 3-5 years) if the Fed stays the course:

US asset prices may skyrocket, in dollars, along with commodities,
if these actions are taken to the extreme (as they were) and the country falls
into hyperinflationary depression. US asset prices will fall sharply
priced in sound currencies and gold.

Hyperinflation chart - USD in gold OZ, monthly, is a straight line that
goes to zero in 2011.*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2009&y=monthly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Current tentative scenario: A double dip recession, with the second deeper dip
happening as the Fed tries to battle inflationary result of enormous bailouts. For it
to unfold, US has to come out of recession this year. Realistic scenario for USD:
Similar to 1985-95. The dollar will drop to new lows again and will probably bottom
in the 60-s. The grounds: US external net indebtedness is not that high.
$20 Trillion US assets held by foreigners, $17 Trillion foreign assets held by USA.
A genuine recovery after 2011-12 driven by manufacturing (optimistic scenario).
Hyperinflation for decades (pessimistic scenario).

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final
and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. The
breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by
the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from
further credit expansion."

-- Ludwig von Mises

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom

"Against this backdrop the crucial question is: where is the borderline between a "good" and "bad" rise in debt-to-GDP ratios? To Austrian economists the ratios spell danger. They maintain that today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrians fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order."
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61474Revealed ! Why all Scientologists were ordered to vote for Donald Trump! —— Elroy Jetson-yesterday
61473Cuts to "defense", i.e., war and imperialism? Nada, zilch, zippo. Not ggersh-Wednesday
61472From Jesse's Cafe. [graphic] jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.comThe Pre Beakerite1Wednesday
61471 agitator in chief? @soit_goes FollowFollow @soit_goes More Money for medicggersh2Tuesday
61470just did a quick google search and see william grieder's referred to by invemarcher-Monday
61469Thomas Frank is one smart cookie Try watching might help [youtube viggersh2June 14
61468I was wondering if anyone can recommend a book. What I'd like is a step byDoren-June 14
61467The video guy, Thomas Frank, at the bottom nails it perfectly. Or at least almosDoren-June 14
61466''I think if you look at the underlying economic fundamentals in this coggersh1June 12
61465 [graphic] John Roberts ?@johnrobertsFox Having now been in Beijing, Seggersh-June 11
61464Manyana.....-g "Junk In The Trunk" – Investors Get "Comfortable&ggersh-June 11
61463So if Faux said it... it must be a lie ?!? g/ng ? anyway,,, about that new car The Pre Beakerite-June 11
61462[graphic] crooksandliars.comggersh-June 10
61461CIA Station Chief Andy KIm is the leading candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize Elroy Jetson-June 9
61460 Big Trouble in “Slimlandia”, As Mexico’s Business Elite Press Panic Button rigThe Pre Beakerite-June 9
61459“Tortillas made in peasant communities solely from native maize (grown in those The Pre Beakerite1June 9
61458[graphic] caucus99percent.comggersh1June 8
61457'Desperate times call for desperate measures'. Not saying it is rigpolarisnh1June 6
61456Just think... if the Americans had stayed with King George, they would to have hThe Pre Beakerite-June 6
61455Today PM Justin Trudeau pressed Trump how he justified the new steel and aluminuElroy Jetson-June 6
61454Putin made me do it....-g-ggersh-June 3
61453amerika a so called democracy, where two partiesThe Russian spelling of America.zzpat-June 3
61452amerika a so called democracy, where two parties work for same goal, neither worggersh1June 3 [graphic]ggersh-June 3
61450754K seems to be on the light side of the "those"...-nfg-ggersh-June 3
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