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Strategies & Market Trends
The coming US dollar crisis
An SI Board Since May 2007
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Emcee:  Real Man Type:  Moderated
Persistent high trade deficit of the last few years,
extremely high level of USD reserves in foreign central banks,
and the recent series of interest rates cuts by US Federal reserve
have led to the dollar crisis, a sharp drop of our currency.

Any currency crisis eventually involves much higher 10-year and
30-year interest rates and a meltdown of all asset classes,
with the possible exception of precious metals. This thread
will focus on the discussion of ongoing USD currency crisis,
and the ways to survive it.



Long-term target (~ 3-5 years) if the Fed stays the course:



US asset prices may skyrocket, in dollars, along with commodities,
if these actions are taken to the extreme (as they were) and the country falls
into hyperinflationary depression. US asset prices will fall sharply
priced in sound currencies and gold.

Hyperinflation chart - USD in gold OZ, monthly, is a straight line that
goes to zero in 2011.

fx.sauder.ubc.ca*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2009&y=monthly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Current tentative scenario: A double dip recession, with the second deeper dip
happening as the Fed tries to battle inflationary result of enormous bailouts. For it
to unfold, US has to come out of recession this year. Realistic scenario for USD:
Similar to 1985-95. The dollar will drop to new lows again and will probably bottom
in the 60-s. The grounds: US external net indebtedness is not that high.
$20 Trillion US assets held by foreigners, $17 Trillion foreign assets held by USA.
A genuine recovery after 2011-12 driven by manufacturing (optimistic scenario).
Hyperinflation for decades (pessimistic scenario).





"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final
and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. The
breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by
the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from
further credit expansion."

-- Ludwig von Mises

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom

"Against this backdrop the crucial question is: where is the borderline between a "good" and "bad" rise in debt-to-GDP ratios? To Austrian economists the ratios spell danger. They maintain that today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrians fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order."

mises.org
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60529Excellent read... theburningplatform.com Trump bloviated about the stock markeggersh3Monday
60528The Jill Stein Criminal Stooge Theory explained [graphic] Putin crony Jill SteElroy Jetson-August 7
60527I have yet to see a professional outfit that can top this one. Stephen Fry'sJoseph Silent1August 7
60526[graphic] caucus99percent.comggersh-August 7
60525Excellent read.....maybe the "dollar crisis" ain't all that importggersh1August 7
60524There is something startling and refreshing about Australian barristers wearing Elroy Jetson-August 6
60523Think about it this way. Today's neckware is no different than the long curvDoren-August 6
60522The book “Snakes in Suits: When Psychopaths Go to Work,” by criminal psychologisElroy Jetson1August 6
60521First thought is ya, right there with you, "He took a year’s sabbatical anggersh-August 5
60520Just watched this guys stuff on BBC Accidental Anarchist: Life Without GovernThe Pre Beakerite-August 4
60519I found that people down on their luck, and in a tough place economically, areThe Pre Beakerite1August 4
60518This guy and his sidekick keep it safe But all kidding aside that trail is safeggersh-August 4
60517Gottit thanks. Not a good sign. Is it safe for Miss Scarlett to ride along thThe Pre Beakerite-August 4
60516Try this one [youtube video]ggersh-August 4
60515Yes it's been removed both here and at Caucus99 where I posted it also, seemggersh-August 4
60514Anaheim doesn't want to be the dumping ground for mentally ill homeless peopElroy Jetson-August 3
60513youtube.comHorgad1August 3
60512Dont see that video now here, has it been been removed?The Pre Beakerite-August 3
60511your house [youtube video]ggersh-August 3
60510Started May 2007.... These things take time. -g- Us geezers be lucky up here.Slumdog1August 3
60509We saw the same inversion while George W Bush was President - US home prices douElroy Jetson-August 2
60508I think she is correct....our system has warts but at the end of the day I do noSawdusty1August 2
60507when was the thread started? finally happening? OT here's to the Canadian..ggersh5August 2
60506damn I see the comic now....did he really wanna stop by? -g/nfg-ggersh-August 2
60505how many illegal foreclosure by the mnucnkin helped with the making of the Obamaggersh-August 2
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