Strategies & Market Trends
The coming US dollar crisis
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Persistent high trade deficit of the last few years,
extremely high level of USD reserves in foreign central banks,
and the recent series of interest rates cuts by US Federal reserve
have led to the dollar crisis, a sharp drop of our currency.

Any currency crisis eventually involves much higher 10-year and
30-year interest rates and a meltdown of all asset classes,
with the possible exception of precious metals. This thread
will focus on the discussion of ongoing USD currency crisis,
and the ways to survive it.

Long-term target (~ 3-5 years) if the Fed stays the course:

US asset prices may skyrocket, in dollars, along with commodities,
if these actions are taken to the extreme (as they were) and the country falls
into hyperinflationary depression. US asset prices will fall sharply
priced in sound currencies and gold.

Hyperinflation chart - USD in gold OZ, monthly, is a straight line that
goes to zero in 2011.*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2009&y=monthly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Current tentative scenario: A double dip recession, with the second deeper dip
happening as the Fed tries to battle inflationary result of enormous bailouts. For it
to unfold, US has to come out of recession this year. Realistic scenario for USD:
Similar to 1985-95. The dollar will drop to new lows again and will probably bottom
in the 60-s. The grounds: US external net indebtedness is not that high.
$20 Trillion US assets held by foreigners, $17 Trillion foreign assets held by USA.
A genuine recovery after 2011-12 driven by manufacturing (optimistic scenario).
Hyperinflation for decades (pessimistic scenario).

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final
and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. The
breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by
the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from
further credit expansion."

-- Ludwig von Mises

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom

"Against this backdrop the crucial question is: where is the borderline between a "good" and "bad" rise in debt-to-GDP ratios? To Austrian economists the ratios spell danger. They maintain that today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrians fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order."
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59744The gentlemen farmers of Wall Street: How the profit motive has seized America’Elroy Jetson-yesterday
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59742It dawned on me as I wrote how painfully obvious it was the whole time before I ggersh-last Wednesday
59741we get caught with an ounce of coke we go to jail do it 2/3 times it's probaggersh-last Wednesday
59740It had never occurred to me that HSBC and MI6 were tied in together. Maybe thatThe Pre Beakerite-last Wednesday
59739Well the $881 (that's known about) million HSBC laundering operation with dThe Pre Beakerite1last Tuesday
59738MI6 has to be owner of this money laundering operation called HSBC that claims ggersh2last Tuesday
59737Sweden hasn’t had any terrorist attacks since it took in a recent wave of 163,00Elroy Jetson-last Tuesday
59736HSBC is a very badly run bank. Their banks around the world run on 17 different Elroy Jetson1last Tuesday
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59734Globalism is like the endless wars in the middle east and Pandora's box... oDoren-last Tuesday
59733Can't improve on what you said.... have the cannibals eaten all that they cggersh-last Tuesday
59732I confess I still don't know much about dis. Oh, and I know about dat, stuffReal Man1last Tuesday
59731[graphic]The Pre Beakerite1last Tuesday Just when you thought it was safe to venture out, Frankensteinggersh1last Tuesday
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59725Good read Message 30990411 excellent read Message 30990381ggersh-February 17
59724GM will effectively stop selling cars in Europe due to the likely imposition of Elroy Jetson-February 16
59723 To: ggersh who wrote (130516) 2/16/2017 9:49:54 AM From: ggersh of 130517 Fggersh-February 16
59722What Trump Should Do Now That Andy Puzder Withdrew His Nomination For Secretary Elroy Jetson-February 16
59721After reading Russian accounts of their interactions with Michael Flynn and otheElroy Jetson-February 15
59720chicken, egg? common denominator is the scary part......ggersh-February 15
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