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Elliott Wave Discussion
An SI Board Since August 2005
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Emcee:  gemx Type:  Unmoderated
Moderated By: gem-x -- (Moderated) -- Started: 9/20/2001 9:42:03 PM Revision History

**Update**
Here's an analysis of major bottoms in the history of the stock market:
-The supercycle low of 41.22 in 1932, bottomed in the vicinity of the wave 4 from 1880 to 1929 (40-50).
-The supercycle low of the 1973-1974 recession bottomed in the 520 level on the DOW...at the exact low of the wave 4 of the previous supercycle, which was 520.
-The 90-91 low on the DOW, bottomed in the same vicinity, testing the crash low of the 1987 bottom.

In all the major bottoms in history, each bear market ended within the wave 4 low of the previous supercycle.

Right now, we are right at that point. The Wave 4 supercycle low of the NASDAQ was 1357.02, with a close of 1419, and the DOW's supercycle wave 4 low was 7399. with a close of around 7773-7800.

the DOW has downside risk of another 600-1000 points, and the NASDAQ another 120 points. Tomorrow could be the day of infamy...a possible circuit breaking drop due to the triple witching expiration.

In the October low of 1998, the VIX shot up to an intraday high of 60, but closed in the 45 range. The previous week of that dour 1998 low had VIX readings that spiked to the 52 level, but closed each of those days in the 45 range.
Today, we had a VIX close of 49.04, which has never happened, but the all time high was set in Oct 1987 of around 129. In 1998, the put call ratio spiked as high as 1.23, but closed at 1.15 with a moving average around .80....today the put call ratio hit 1.27, a 21 day moving average of .88, and closed at the high. This would mean the readings have surpassed the Oct 98 low. If you look at the VXN, the highest reading registered was in March 2000 of 90, and today the VXN closed at 84.25.

Basically, within the next couple days, the ultimate bottom could be reached, and a massive reversal could emerge.

I'd like to see all the fear come to the ultimate crescendo tomorrow. The levels to watch on the DOW in the next couple days are 7400-7800 and on the NASDAQ 1357-1419.

This could be it in the next couple days, so hang tight.

**Update 1:45PM**
Thanks to Bin Laden, the NASDAQ is pricing the worst possible economic scenario. A DEPRESSION.
The two levels I'm watching now are 1455-1460 and 1355-1362.

The second zigzag is extending to the farthest reaches of the correction, the level of 1455-1460 would be the maximum length of Wave C, which is 2.618 X the length of Wave A (251 pts). This year has witnessed THE rarest wave formations known to man, and these zigzag fits the bill.
If there's no bounce off of 1455-1460, the last hope for a real bounce is 1355-1362 which is the October 1998 low, and the bottom of the previous Wave 4, when the NASDAQ crashed from 2000 to 1355. Also, the 1362 level would represent the exact crash wave lengths of the Great Depression from late 1929 to 1933. If people are yapping about a "recession", forget about it. This is a "depression", in the NASDAQ. The "D" word should be coming up in the next couple months...it's insane how nothing has been able to stop this crash wave yet, including massive liquidity of pumping from the Fed, coordinated rate cuts worldwide, including a hasty 50 from the Fed.
During the Great Depression, the Fed dropped rates to the 1.0-1.5 level before any kind of semblance of a recovery took hold.
The DOW needs to test the 7600 level, and the NASDAQ, 1460 and 1360. A breach of 1355 would mean that the NASDAQ is headed for 1000, 900, and the level that would destroy economic growth, NASDAQ 560.

The market is telling us something...and something very real, and very sinister..


"Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name, thy kingdom come, thy will be done on earth as it is in heaven, give us this day our daily bread, and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us, and lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil, For the kingdom and power and the glory are yours, now and forever..amen."
"Hail Mary, full of grace, the lord is with thee, blessed art thou amongst women, and blessed is the fruit of thy womb Jesus, Holy Mary, mother of God, pray for us sinners, and now and at the hour of our death, amen."
"Oh My God, I am sorry for my sins, in choosing to do wrong, and choosing to do good, I've sinned against you and others of your church, I firmly intend with the help of your son to forgive for my sins and to love as I should."

In the name of the Father, Son, and the Holy Spirit.

Amen,

The time is now to follow Jesus, our savior. I know the market could be pretty awful next week, but I refuse to profit off of the devil's doing. It's more than likely that Bin Laden's soldiers are holding heavy short positions, and to follow this path is dangerous.

(German authorities have discovered that people involved with Bin Laden have been shorting insurance stocks in anticipation of this event. Apparently, short sellers are helping terrorists fund their activities. People who are shorting stocks right now are going STRAIGHT TO HELL.)

I refuse to do it..not only for our country, the USA, but for God.

I was watching the scary events on CNBC unfold the morning of Sept. 11, 2001, and there was a formation in the cloud of smoke that I saw that scared the crap out of me, and scouring through the internet, I found a picture of it that pretty much confirmed it. If you're not following the word of God right now, this picture will do the trick.

angelfire.com

The time is now....I prefer to spread the word of God than to foster and support greed and evil.

This is and was a wake up call for all.

Also, reading through my old predictions, this one kinda put a little shiver up my spine...change Israel into Afghanastan (I mentioned the Israel thing, due to a TV show I was watching about UFO's, and Israel's common interaction with them):

From Aug. 30th:

"....The crash that destroys everything in it's path, turning the US into a third world country, and driving the world economy into self destruction. The DOW would need to be at the 1200 level, and the Grand Supercycle that started in the 1700's would be over, and evolution will turn into de-evolution.
And the aliens that have been hiding from us in their mother ships in Israel will come out of their pods and exterminate the earth."

PLEASE, FOLLOW THE PATH OF GOD.

(Don't miss Willy Wonka and The Chocolate Factory on Fox Family tonite...every time I've seen it, a huge positive life altering event has happened to me..)
**Update**
I've been absolutely bombarded with people asking me what I think may happen next week...and what the Elli
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