Technology Stocks: Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!  
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Share This Board Moderated By: Cary Salsberg -- (Not Moderated) -- Started: 6/5/1996 7:24:00 PM  Revision History

In April, under the Tencor thread, I predicted that the semi
equipment stocks would test their January and March lows.

I was merely looking at a TREND since last summer and acknowleging
that the street had a STORY, i.e. semi equips are cyclical and the
boom cycle is ending.

Today's Lam announcement, AMAT's a few week ago, Merril Lynch's new
neutral ratings, and company warnings, in general, in the quarterly
reports have pushed many close to January and March price levels.

I would love to buy about 10 of these companies, right now, but the
TREND and STORY (see above) scare me.

If the negative scenario is played out, semi-equips will report
significant decreases in sales and earnings and in some cases zero
earnings or losses.

I believe the semi-equips will move lower from here in anticipation
of the negative scenario, but I believe nobody knows how extreme the
end of the boom cycle will be.

This will create a GREAT long term (3-5 years; 3-10 times your money)
buying opportunity. I will buy the good leading edge semi-equips
when I can pay no more than 2 times cash and 1.5 times book!

I am interested in critical comments based on empirical data!

Thank you.

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10918Yes, i'm sure that does have a lot to do with the dormancy of the thread. Investor2-08/18/2013 08:55 PM
109174 of the top 6 thread contributors no longer post on SI. That could have a lot The Ox-08/18/2013 04:56 PM
10916Yes, it's interesting how the thread suddenly died after more than 10,000 poInvestor2-08/17/2013 12:53 PM
10915Wonder when this thread would be OFFICIALLY DEAD Or is that DEAD MONEY Pink Minion-08/17/2013 05:59 AM
10914I think we could see the next batch of EPS upwards revisions in January. The punetchmeister-01/08/2010 02:54 PM
10913 Also AMAT is relatively big, which would create some tendency to be slightly TimF-12/18/2009 11:05 AM
10912As Fisher says, the last leg down and the first leg up are driven by psychology Cary Salsberg-12/18/2009 08:45 AM
10911Funny how AMAT, supposedly one of the "top companies", had the smallesInvestor2112/17/2009 09:38 PM
10910Recent Merrill Lynch EPS forecasts: AMAT FY11 $0.98 ASML CY11 e1.71 KLACary Salsberg-12/17/2009 03:25 PM
10909I think we could see the next batch of EPS upwards revisions in January. The punetchmeister-12/17/2009 01:50 PM
10908I think we could see the next batch of EPS upwards revisions in January. The punetchmeister-12/17/2009 01:46 PM
10907we could be 6 to 9 months from an economic recovery Signs all pointing in the rThe Ox-12/17/2009 12:28 PM
10906RE: "But the future of the companies in the years and decades to come is imCary Salsberg-02/21/2009 12:32 PM
10905RE: "Now, we are in uncharted territory." Agreed. We could be on theInvestor2-02/20/2009 08:12 PM
10904 Sometimes "worse they have ever seen" isn't really accurate, orTimF-02/20/2009 04:21 PM
10903RE: "You being so bearish..." I just finished listening to earnings cCary Salsberg-02/20/2009 03:53 PM
10902Cary, You being so bearish, We must be close!!! cluka-02/20/2009 02:45 PM
10901RE: "Does this qualify for BLOOD in the streets..." NO! TraditionallCary Salsberg-02/20/2009 02:39 PM
10900BtB the worst we've ever seen, imo. Not just the ratio but the actual #s thThe Ox-02/20/2009 01:31 PM
10899That sounds logical. Best wishes, I2 Investor2-11/20/2008 07:04 PM
10898Well, I am not surprised you are confused, but I did not say anything about ruleCary Salsberg-11/20/2008 06:53 PM
10897Let me see if I understand your rules for this board. It is ok for you to talk Kirk ©511/20/2008 02:37 PM
10896I still own shares. Kirk ©-11/20/2008 02:34 PM
10895Kirk, one of your favorites (at least it was), and on my shopping list of greatEACarl-11/20/2008 02:09 PM
10894Mentioning UTEK is a non-starter. This is an advisory message. The next step iCary Salsberg-11/20/2008 12:52 PM
10893Cary’s List with insider buys AMAT, ASML, KLAC, NVLS, ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM TooKirk ©-11/20/2008 09:59 AM
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