Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

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Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

An SI Board Since June 1996

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans	Symbol
10920	228	0	LRCX

Emcee: Cary Salsberg	Type: Unmoderated

In April, under the Tencor thread, I predicted that the semi
equipment stocks would test their January and March lows.

I was merely looking at a TREND since last summer and acknowleging
that the street had a STORY, i.e. semi equips are cyclical and the
boom cycle is ending.

Today's Lam announcement, AMAT's a few week ago, Merril Lynch's new
neutral ratings, and company warnings, in general, in the quarterly
reports have pushed many close to January and March price levels.

I would love to buy about 10 of these companies, right now, but the
TREND and STORY (see above) scare me.

If the negative scenario is played out, semi-equips will report
significant decreases in sales and earnings and in some cases zero
earnings or losses.

I believe the semi-equips will move lower from here in anticipation
of the negative scenario, but I believe nobody knows how extreme the
end of the boom cycle will be.

This will create a GREAT long term (3-5 years; 3-10 times your money)
buying opportunity. I will buy the good leading edge semi-equips
when I can pay no more than 2 times cash and 1.5 times book!

I am interested in critical comments based on empirical data!

Thank you.

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Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
10920	You're probably right. SOX isn't even down to January 2014 levels. [gr	Investor2	-	10/14/2014
10919	i think it could get much worse. !!! the blood is just starting to spirt!	rsie	-	10/13/2014
10918	Yes, i'm sure that does have a lot to do with the dormancy of the thread.	Investor2	-	8/18/2013
10917	4 of the top 6 thread contributors no longer post on SI. That could have a lot	The Ox	-	8/18/2013
10916	Yes, it's interesting how the thread suddenly died after more than 10,000 po	Investor2	-	8/17/2013
10915	Wonder when this thread would be OFFICIALLY DEAD Or is that DEAD MONEY	Pink Minion	-	8/17/2013
10914	<i>I think we could see the next batch of EPS upwards revisions in January	etchmeister	-	1/8/2010
10913	Also AMAT is relatively big, which would create some tendency to be slightly	TimF	-	12/18/2009
10912	As Fisher says, the last leg down and the first leg up are driven by psychology	Cary Salsberg	-	12/18/2009
10911	Funny how AMAT, supposedly one of the "top companies", had the smalles	Investor2	1	12/17/2009
10910	Recent Merrill Lynch EPS forecasts: AMAT FY11 $0.98 ASML CY11 e1.71 KLA	Cary Salsberg	-	12/17/2009
10909	I think we could see the next batch of EPS upwards revisions in January. The pun	etchmeister	-	12/17/2009
10908	I think we could see the next batch of EPS upwards revisions in January. The pun	etchmeister	-	12/17/2009
10907	<i>we could be 6 to 9 months from an economic recovery</i> Signs al	The Ox	-	12/17/2009
10906	RE: "But the future of the companies in the years and decades to come is im	Cary Salsberg	-	2/21/2009
10905	RE: "Now, we are in uncharted territory." Agreed. We could be on the	Investor2	-	2/20/2009
10904	Sometimes "worse they have ever seen" isn't really accurate, or	TimF	-	2/20/2009
10903	RE: "You being so bearish..." I just finished listening to earnings c	Cary Salsberg	-	2/20/2009
10902	Cary, You being so bearish, We must be close!!!	cluka	-	2/20/2009
10901	RE: "Does this qualify for BLOOD in the streets..." NO! Traditionall	Cary Salsberg	-	2/20/2009
10900	BtB the worst we've ever seen, imo. Not just the ratio but the actual #s th	The Ox	-	2/20/2009
10899	That sounds logical. Best wishes, I2	Investor2	-	11/20/2008
10898	Well, I am not surprised you are confused, but I did not say anything about rule	Cary Salsberg	-	11/20/2008
10897	Let me see if I understand your rules for this board. It is ok for you to talk	Kirk ©	5	11/20/2008
10896	I still own shares.	Kirk ©	-	11/20/2008

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