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equipment stocks would test their January and March lows. I was merely looking at a TREND since last summer and acknowleging that the street had a STORY, i.e. semi equips are cyclical and the boom cycle is ending. Today's Lam announcement, AMAT's a few week ago, Merril Lynch's new neutral ratings, and company warnings, in general, in the quarterly reports have pushed many close to January and March price levels. I would love to buy about 10 of these companies, right now, but the TREND and STORY (see above) scare me. If the negative scenario is played out, semi-equips will report significant decreases in sales and earnings and in some cases zero earnings or losses. I believe the semi-equips will move lower from here in anticipation of the negative scenario, but I believe nobody knows how extreme the end of the boom cycle will be. This will create a GREAT long term (3-5 years; 3-10 times your money) buying opportunity. I will buy the good leading edge semi-equips when I can pay no more than 2 times cash and 1.5 times book! I am interested in critical comments based on empirical data! Thank you. | |||||||||||||||
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