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John P's Market Laboratory
An SI Board Since January 2000
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Emcee:  John P Type:  Moderated
THE 10 YEAR WEEKLY CHART OF THE "BIG 3 " Global Bond Markets

The turn on a dime top in price --- bottom in Yield in the Big 3 Global Bond Markets






The 1 year chart of daily YIELD action amplifies the wild thrashing by Japan and Germany (the ECB)







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Here is the my Proprietary SPX JJP ATR cross of the Eur/JPY :$WTIC correlation chart. The methodology
reinforces the case that we experienced a bear market and has a very good track record. I explained how
the chart works in a post on 3/16/17 which I have re posted below the update chart, which has become even more bullish




---
this is my proprietary model that uses the EUR/JPY crossrate and then correlates it to WTIC.... so you
have 4 of the deepest largest markets in the world..... the Eur/JPY "RIsk On Risk Off" proxy then as a ratio
of the single most important global commodity input crude.

I have shown this 2 or 3 times this past 15 months............ but it's just esoteric enough that it does not
get traction in the layman and even the professional traders mind.



and it has had a very good record..... when the 14 week Average true range goes below the long term 200
week average true range with is calculated on the EUR/JPY Cross-rate and then divided as a ratio of
$WTIC.... what that calculation in KISS (KEEP it SIMPLE STUPID) is doing is showing when the relative
volatility of 3 of the worlds biggest pricing components stabilizes.... it creates the necessary price
stability in corporate planning models and in Global Macro Institutional Investor Models to expand risk
exposure...that is long US equity exposure.



To Clarify the signals are generated when the Blue 14 period ATR goes below the long term 200 period
Moving average.... and that generates a buy a the Average True Range of the EUR/JPY cross / by WTIC is
coming down.. what is nice about this model is that you can have signals that are in effect for 2 years or so
at a time.



The 72 Year Master Cycle in the US Bond Market








A chart from the Oct 2016 34th presentation at the New Orleans investment symposium



..

Since we are in the 7th year of long talked of Decennial Pattern we should expect pretty
serious pullback the last 6 weeks of Q3... and remember that October is often the month of
lows. Have some profits taken and some powder dry as you prepare for a real price check back.

7th & 9th Years of the Decennial Pattern


















The above charts start from 1915 and go to 2016.
Each decade is shown separately. As you can see the 7th and 9th years have been highlighted in yellow.
The reason for this was to show that highs have been made in the 7th and 9th years of a decade.
In some cases a high was made in the 6th year as in 1916-17, 1946, 1956-57, 1966 and 1976-77.

Odds that we rally straight up from Here.... Sunday June 24th into November 2017 are statistically
very very low. So asset allocation models have you rebalancing as your outperforming areas should
get pruned back into what the true allocation should be ... do not get endlessly pulled into asset class
"drift" and for sectors that have dramatically outperformed.. do not get pulled into "sector drift"




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Standing on Resolution hill...... being in the long bond as an investor over the past 20 years made your 86% more on your money than being in the SPX 500 that was as of Late Sept of 2016......

Message 30754163

However, the 36 year cycle of Super bull increases in treasury prices and / the very low levels they have left us where replicating the increase in bond prices and concomitant decline in yield in performance over the next 10 and 20 years is assuredly impossible, unless ..... we have a super seismic event or serious of them that would get FFunds rates back to 19% and get 30 year bonds yields 14 to 16% yield. Even a price adjustment to half those levels who act as a equity reset. .... It will not happen overnight and a quicker raise of the magnitude would create complete chaos in the financial markets. If stocks under-perform in this environment on a sustained basis it will be because we are back in the 1973-74, or Germany in 1922, or 1719-20 in France and England.

where the name of the game was massive inflation and houses, commodities and everything that benefits from a massive inflationary spike is the place to be.

And The Cryptocurrency Bull Market Mania is illustrative of the Massive Global liquidity Pump.....
Bitcoin, Ethereum... and the growing field of over 850+ cryptocurrencies is introducing the elements of
extreme speculation in the financial markets...


New developments on the Singularity ...... A. I.; Machine Learning -- Inferencing and the Global Financial Marketplace. to come

John
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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
19468the NDX daily.... shorter term... action is acting corrective since June 9th topJohn P-3 hours ago
19467Vioxx may have set records! “Merck has agreed to pay $950 million and has pleadmad_one2yesterday
19466A VIX Below 10 Means This… good reading: Sorry if this is was already posted Don Green-yesterday
19465Might want to also view through the lawsuit lens of how many of these "medimad_one-yesterday
19464Easiest Path to Riches on the Web? An Initial Coin Offering By NATHANIEL POPGlenn Petersen2Sunday
19463John, insurers can't hold junk without taking a penalty to their statutory sLogain Ablar1Sunday
19462Illinois could be 1st state with 'junk' credit due to budget Jun. 24, 2John P1Sunday
19461Hi Don, and what kind of care could doctors give us in the 1950's... I wasJohn P1Sunday
194603 or 4 years ago, my Dr. told me that the insurance company would only allow himThe Ox2last Friday
19459The crude oil is in a bear market once again: Energy Markets1. Crude oil entereJohn P3last Friday
19458OX I can still remember as a child in the 1950's having our family doctor aDon Green2last Friday
19457I think all anyone has to do is look at the cost of health insurance premiums frThe Ox-last Friday
19456Haven't had a lot of time to follow the markets closely. A couple hours herThe Ox2last Friday
19455Hi Chip, the DJIA continues to adhere to the support - resistance of the tines oJohn P-last Friday
19454Hi Don... yes the limitations of the VIX continue to manifest themselves as theJohn P-last Friday
19453Buyers beware: Lessons from the ethereum 'flash crash' The price of theJohn P3last Friday
19452Frank, since Sunday night June 11th and then your post on 06/14/17... many of thJohn P2last Friday
19451 The healthcare sector and the IBB have been showing VERY strong relative perfJohn P2last Friday
19450The CBOE Volatility Index is not a fortune-teller. barrons.com cumber.comDon Green-last Thursday
19449Stepping up to the challenge? eBay announced today a new Price Match GuaranteeDon Green2last Thursday
19448A Wall-Streeter-turned-Googler says bankers could do great things for tech, if oDon Green-last Thursday
19447Ox - I updated the chart you linked here to reflect a time forward weekly trend Chip McVickar3last Wednesday
19446This ‘irrational exuberance’ indicator could spell trouble for the stock market.Don Green1last Wednesday
19445Hi Ox, USD - Crude - Gold -Silver seasonality charts The USD index did stop gJohn P2last Wednesday
19444Amazon vs. Walmart saga continues. It turns out, Walmart isn't thrilled aDon Green1last Wednesday
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