Copyright © 2013 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=56489This is a place to discuss subjects from specific investments to economic analysis. Sometimes political actions affect the investment climate and are then fair game. Through diverse opinions we all benefit. econbrowser.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/images/Logo380x132.pnghttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=5648938013210TimFShort Memories April 29, 2013, 12:26 pm I just heard a radio commercial today urging listeners to learn how to flip houses to great profit with absolutely no capital or down payment required. What a great idea. coyoteblog.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288680325/1/2013 7:04:09 AMTimFhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288676804/30/2013 9:19:19 PMTimFBitcoins: A GIANT BUBBLE? Maybe, but currency could still be worthwhile Lessons from tulip-hoarding Dutch speculators of 1634 By Tim Worstall theregister.co.uk http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288641024/29/2013 9:09:46 AMgreatplains_guyAre Earnings Expectations Realistic? John Mauldin April 17, 2013 In today’s Outside the Box, Sheraz Mian, Director of Research for Zacks Investment Research, gives us a thorough overview of corporate earnings trends for the past several quarters, along with consensus expectations for this year and next. Then he asks, ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288423664/17/2013 9:05:13 PMPeter DierksEurozone Signals Deposit Grab In Future Bank Bailouts Tue, Mar 26 2013 00:00:00 E A01_A1 By JASON MA, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY [graphic] The Cyprus rescue and a top European official's comments signal rich eurozone governments are ending their support for troubled banking sectors, which now face greater bank-run ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288018293/27/2013 10:36:12 AMTimFSorry, Folks: One Way or the Other, You'll Never Be Able to Completely Count on Retirement by Megan McArdle Mar 15, 2013 9:28 AM EDT Social Security. Corporate Pensions. 401ks. They're all risky, and that risk isn't going away. thedailybeast.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287970073/24/2013 5:14:48 PMgreatplains_guyHow To Protect Your Retirement Assets From The Coming Crash 3/19/2013 @ 8:00AM As a chronic prognosticator of doom, I’m often asked, “Do you heed your own warnings?” I sure didn’t the last time the stock market crashed. Despite forecasting the dot-com collapse in November 1999 (in an article titled, “Living in the S...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287950623/23/2013 8:57:55 AMgreatplains_guyThe Keynesian Depression By Scott Minerd February 23, 2013 Editor's note: This article was originally published on February 22 in John Mauldin's weekly e-letter. In 1968, America was literally over the moon. Apollo 7 had just made the first manned lunar orbit and the nation would soon witness Neil Armstrong’s moonw...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287429832/23/2013 6:43:15 PMBrumar89Housing Market vs. Financials February 16th, 2013 by Mebane Faber [graphic] …with a 2-year lag….great chart from SocGen: [graphic] mebanefaber.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287313662/17/2013 2:12:36 PMgreatplains_guyI am not quite sure what is driving this bubble. In the face of the most moronic fiscal and monetary policy in history with politicians arguing over how much to expand a bloated government, why is the stock market rising? Bubble? Late retirement fund matches? Late bonuses being invested? The Massive special dividends...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287178372/10/2013 8:35:48 PMPeter Dierks"We are living in the middle of the biggest bubble in history" Doug Casey, Chairman January 18, 2013 3:58pm GMT In this interview with GoldMoney's Andy Duncan, Doug Casey talks about the US government's schemes to "paper over" the real state of the economy, global currency wars, and what investors should do to prot...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286771891/21/2013 9:52:27 AMPeter DierksRising Market Likely An Illusion of Money January 14, 2013, 4:47 p.m. ET "So weakness equals strength, at least in stocks," you say in your Jan. 5 editorial "Jobs and Money." Yes, quantitative easing 1, 2, 3 and 4 devalue the dollar and therefore drive stock and commodity prices upward. But what does this tell us? ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286695341/17/2013 9:40:38 AMPeter DierksAfter ICE-NYSE Bid, CME Seen as Next Predator By Tara Lachapelle on December 21, 2012 IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) Inc.’s deal to buy NYSE Euronext is pressuring CME Group Inc. (CME), the world’s largest operator of futures exchanges, to mount a response. IntercontinentalExchange is purchasing NYSE Euronext in...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2862598312/26/2012 9:22:47 AMBrumar89http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2862161112/22/2012 2:37:25 PMTimFYes. OTOH I'm not sure that he made that 10 year return from predictions of what the market would do over the long term. He might be good at seeing the direction things are going for few weeks to a few months out, and getting ahead of it. That could make you a lot of money, but doesn't mean you know what things will...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2860768912/16/2012 12:34:02 PMBrumar89http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2860766412/16/2012 12:21:24 PMTimFOne problem with using past results to determine who is a good stock picker, if you start with a large sample, is that just by random chance some members of that large sample will be consistently good. The longer the period your considering, the smaller the number that would make it through on random chance, and the ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2860764112/16/2012 12:10:57 PMBrumar89Barron's publishes a Roundtable of discussions and stock picks shortly after the beginning of each year. Most such stuff is of little value. But there's a guy named Felix Zulauf who has had a very good run of results. A CAGR of returns of 25.4% over 10 years with NO down years. No negative returns in 2002 or 2008. Wort...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2860156212/13/2012 11:37:24 AMPeter DierksEconomic Bricolage We should treat failed entrepreneurs with the reverence that we reserve for fallen soldiers. November 26, 2012, 4:06 p.m. ET By MATT RIDLEY You don't need a physics degree to ride a bicycle. Nor, Nassim Nicholas Taleb realized one day, do traders need to understand the mathematical theorems of o...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2856994211/27/2012 10:16:50 AMTimFhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2845917710/7/2012 8:07:43 PMBrumar89Natural Gas and Oil Spread: Opportunity or a Pain Trade? Posted Oct 5 2012 by Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D. in Turnkey Brainwave [graphic][graphic] The chart above (with my annotations on the far right) is from a research piece by The Carlyle Group. From 1997 to 2005 oil and natural gas sat roughly at parity on an ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2845585310/5/2012 3:05:00 PMTimFThe prosociality of short selling Short selling is under attack. In 2010, the SEC adopted new restrictions on it. Spain and Italy have adopted purportedly temporary bans on it. I've noted many times over the years that short selling has many pro-social aspects, while being unfairly blamed for problems whose...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283888239/6/2012 12:40:49 PMPeter DierksUpcoming Crash Will Be ‘Worse Than 2008’ Says Economist Peter Schiff Wednesday, 13 Jun 2012 03:52 PM By Christian Hill Investors need to prepare for an upcoming stock market crash that will be “worse than 2008.” That’s according to a well-respected author and investor, making a recent appearance on Fox Busines...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283501748/21/2012 10:25:29 AMPeter DierksNice find. Until the retail investor returns the market will not head towards any bubble.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283489778/20/2012 5:38:13 PMgreatplains_guyPrivate Debt Is Crippling the Economy There won't be a recovery until credit card and household debt levels come down Anthony Randazzo August 10, 2012 America’s economic pundits are not very creative. For the past several years, their gripes about economic growth have fallen into several staid categories: Monetary pol...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283473528/19/2012 10:56:42 PMgreatplains_guyWhere has the retail investor gone? By Barry Ritholtz, Published: August 17 Lots of folks are wondering what happened to the Main Street-mom-and-pop retail investors. They seem to have taken their ball and gone home. I don’t blame them for feeling put upon, but it might be instructive to figure out why. Perhaps it co...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283473248/19/2012 10:34:56 PMPeter DierksThree Reasons Paul Ryan Makes the U.S. a Better Investment By Amity Shlaes Aug 13, 2012 4:55 PM CT Maybe U.S. financial markets have a chance after all. That's the message many of us take away from the news that Representative Paul Ryan will join Mitt Romney on the Republican presidential ticket. To see why the bu...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283348558/14/2012 12:26:32 PMTimFhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283171898/6/2012 9:38:57 AMTimFTrading Firm Lost $10 Million a Minute Because of Computer Glitch theatlanticwire.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283136568/3/2012 7:31:20 PMBrumar89 The Hedgehog's Error By M*_SamL | 07-31-12 | 10:09 AM Investors who “know” that European stocks are doomed are probably fooling themselves. University of Pennsylvania psychologist Philip Tetlock conducted a mammoth 20-year study on expert predictions. He found their performance modest, handily beaten by naive...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283098658/2/2012 11:59:44 AMBrumar892012 looking like a normal election year so far: Can It Really Be That Easy? [graphic]Sunday, July 29, 2012 at 11:26PM Throughout the year in reports to our Bespoke Premium clients, we have highlighted the similarities between this year and prior Presidential Election years numerous times. Most recently, in early...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=283023167/30/2012 1:31:46 PMgreatplains_guyUpcoming Crash Will Be ‘Worse Than 2008’ Says Economist Peter Schiff Wednesday, 13 Jun 2012 03:52 PM By Christian Hill Investors need to prepare for an upcoming stock market crash that will be “worse than 2008.” That’s according to a well-respected author and investor, making a recent appearance on Fox Business. ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=282928127/26/2012 12:01:53 AMBrumar89Investment Research - How to: This made me laugh. Gas Shocks ATP Higher June 17, 2012 You have not bought new pants in 6 years. You have, however, saved up $5,000 for your first ever IRA contribution. It is 9:30 am Eastern Standard Time Thursday June 14 and you are ready to go. You head over to Seeking Al...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=282132206/18/2012 11:21:00 AMTimFhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=282089226/15/2012 12:51:18 PMTimF 4 Dishonest Broker Tactics And How To Avoid Them June 30 2010 Filed Under » Investing Basics, Investment, Mutual Funds, Personal Finance, Portfolio Management, Stocks Any industry has its bad apples, and the brokerage industry is no exception. While most investm...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=282087436/15/2012 11:50:20 AMBrumar89Grumpy Old Accountants: SS is a Ponzi scheme SOCIAL SECURITY IS A PONZI SCHEME ... If one would do that, he or she would conclude that Rick Perry is mostly correct about his observations, though the present-day social security system does have a few features that distinguish it from traditional financial Ponzi sch...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=281395985/11/2012 3:39:44 PMBrumar89Grumpy Old Accountants: Stay Grumpy, my friends by Michael Tarsala If you don't know them already, allow me to introduce you to the Grumpy Old Accountants.[graphic] Two accounting professors -- Anthony Catanach Jr. at Villanova, and J. Edward Ketz at Penn State -- have been running a blog by that name for ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=281395855/11/2012 3:35:47 PMPeter DierksGenworth Chief Resigns in Wake of Australian MI Problems Michael D. Fraizer, chairman and CEO of Genworth Financial, resigned Tuesday afternoon, two weeks after the firm’s stock was hammered because of accelerating losses in its Australian mortgage insurance business. Fraizer is the second Genworth executive to r...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=281216635/3/2012 8:16:23 AMBrumar89Natural Gas Depressed By Associated Gas Production April 30, 2012 | by: Jeff B Depressed natural prices have caught the attention of the financial press with professional and amateur bloggers taking note. Some writers have observed the natural gas price charts and concluded the price must rise or spike sometime s...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=281148914/30/2012 9:55:46 AMBrumar89Ah, if only we could have a Death of Mining cover story. Then we'd know the bottom is in. If I could see something like that, I'd put a little longterm money into ACI. businessweek.com  theatlantic.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=281138244/29/2012 2:46:54 PMBrumar89[graphic] Dilbert on momentum investing. ( Dilbert via Frank Voisin) abnormalinvestinghttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=280847374/16/2012 12:45:54 PMTimFThe $110 Effect: What Higher Gas Prices Could Really Do to the Economy theatlantic.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=280315943/23/2012 11:59:51 AMBrumar89A chart on the oil / natural gas price ratio: [graphic] From Systematic Relative Strength and Bespoke If they were priced on energy equivalence, the ratio would be 6. How and when this will be brought back to a more historical ratio, I don't know. Presumably, in time natural gas will rise.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=279804002/29/2012 1:36:40 PMTimFhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=279433662/11/2012 6:07:34 PMgreatplains_guyI am not sure the farmland bubble is a bubble or if it reflects the value in non dollar denominated currency. As the dollars drops land prices rise in dollars. The same correlation seems to exist between dollars and gold. It is probably at least partially a bubble. Corn farmers have had three bumper cops on much of th...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=279192801/31/2012 9:17:03 PMPeter DierksThe Coming Tech-led Boom Three breakthroughs are poised to transform this century as much as telephony and electricity did the last. JANUARY 30, 2012 By MARK P. MILLSAND JULIO M. OTTINO In January 1912, the United States emerged from a two-year recession. Nineteen more followed—along with a century of phenomenal e...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=279173951/31/2012 10:16:37 AMBrumar89Farmland bubble: in siouxland [graphic] One of the hottest assets — and hottest topics — is farmland. Here’s the price of land in Sioux County, Iowa, as reported annually by Iowa State. In the area, land has sold for several thousand dollars an acre more than the last data point above, and at a recent auctio...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=279052501/25/2012 2:06:20 PMPeter DierksThere is a lot to fear for our economic well being. When government reduces as a percent of GDP the economy will be freed to grow quite well.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=278584381/3/2012 4:43:30 PMgreatplains_guySEC charges former Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives with securities fraud Published 12/16/2011 Washington, D.C., Dec. 16, 2011 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged six former top executives of the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2784425212/25/2011 1:17:16 AMgreatplains_guyGoldsmith comment: Below, you'll find an exclusive interview I conducted with Porter in December 2010. I asked Porter what problems America faces today, exactly what you can do to protect yourself, and what he would do to fix these problems. Plus, Porter reveals a never-before-heard prediction involving a freedom U.S. ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2784131612/23/2011 1:45:10 AM