Copyright © 2013 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=37415Here is a thread for people who want to discuss Applied Materials as a company and/or as an investment without wading through hundreds of posts on the latest hot political issue. For the sake of those who are new to the subject, Applied Materials is the leading manufacturer of equipment used to ma...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/images/Logo380x132.pnghttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=3741538013210Gottfried"Applied Materials' CEO Discusses F2Q13 Results - Earnings Call Transcript" seekingalpha.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288991905/16/2013 7:27:29 PMGottfriedSIA March 2013 ww chip sales SIA data semiconductors.org  charts ww chip sales with SEMI equipment bookings ww chip sales and y-o-y change ww chip sales change with SEMI equipment bookings screencast.com  RSS feed available on the screencast page above [graphic] [graphic] [graphic]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288763925/5/2013 3:23:10 PMGottfriedSEMI data March 2013 semi.org  SEMI charts are at... screencast.com  SEMI chart from 2001 [graphic] SEMI chart from 1995 [graphic] Ratio of SEMI billings to SIA ww chip sales [graphic]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288472544/19/2013 7:10:51 PMrobert b furmanHi G, Nice reduction in short interest on Amat - perhaps part of the price strength. nasdaq.com  stocks for next time Settlement DateShort InterestAvg Daily Share VolumeDays To Cover3/15/201315,706,31410,859,8821.4462692/28/201317,151,75614,684,1081.1680492/15/201321,183,65415,055,5601.4070321/31/20131...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288226454/8/2013 3:35:58 PMGottfriedSIA February 2013 ww chip sales SIA data semiconductors.org  charts ww chip sales with SEMI equipment bookings ww chip sales and y-o-y change ww chip sales change with SEMI equipment bookings screencast.com  RSS feed available on the screencast page above [graphic] [graphic] [graphic]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288212634/7/2013 6:48:37 PMGottfriedSEMI data February 2013 semi.org  SEMI charts are at... screencast.com  SEMI chart from 2001 [graphic] SEMI chart from 1995 [graphic] Ratio of SEMI billings to SIA ww chip sales [graphic]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287921753/21/2013 6:50:02 PMGottfriedhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287821443/16/2013 3:30:03 PMGottfried"In spite of plunging sales and rumors the company plans to exit the business, Applied Materials (AMAT) remains "fully committed" to its solar manufacturing equipment ops, says division chief Charlie Gay. Thanks to massive industry overcapacity and the liquidity/solvency issues faced by many customers, Applied's solar ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287820503/16/2013 2:09:09 PMGottfriedSIA January 2013 ww chip sales SIA data semiconductors.org  charts ww chip sales with SEMI equipment bookings ww chip sales and y-o-y change ww chip sales change with SEMI equipment bookings screencast.com  RSS feed available on the screencast page above [graphic] [graphic] [graphic]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287749933/12/2013 4:36:29 PMGottfriedonly for a few "CBOE And C2 Plan To Launch Mini-Options On March 18 For AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, GLD And SPY" reuters.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287653023/7/2013 11:15:20 AMJeromeMini options = 10 sh per contract.......will these mini contracts will only for select stocks?http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287652043/7/2013 10:41:25 AMGottfriedhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287651533/7/2013 10:18:08 AMJeromeOptions.....Hey Gottfried.....I got a notice from Fidelity a couple of weeks ago that they were going to issue mini option contracts. Any idea what what that would be about? Some option contracts on high share price companies like AAPL, and Google are too high priced for me to work with. For myself I have been buying ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287648523/7/2013 6:25:52 AMGottfriedJerome, LOL! I qualify for old but I don't love this game. I need extra income. Some of my trades are ridiculously cautious. Others are just ridiculous. If it wasn't for the market I'd have extra time, but what would I do with it? Walk the dog even more? Thanks for the link to the idiot-maker story! These guys excel...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287645393/6/2013 9:48:18 PMJeromeBear Market predictors...........+ businessinsider.com  I have no idea if this rally will last another six weeks or another six years. But I do know that when you pass into the valley of long shadows no one will ask you how you did in the stock market? If you are near or past the age of retirement...the stock ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287643753/6/2013 7:41:22 PMGottfried"Applied Materials Announces 11 Percent Increase in Cash Dividend" phoenix.corporate-ir.net http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287609873/5/2013 12:26:59 PMGottfriedhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287576893/3/2013 7:24:21 PMGottfriedsame NDX scan but using ema instead of sma gives ALTR ATVI CHKP CTXS PRGO [type is stock] and [today's ema(12,close) > today's ema(200,close)] and [today's ema(25,close) > today's ema(200,close)] and [group is NASDAQ100] and [20 days ago ema(12) < ema(200)] with this scan HPQ is on the verge [graphic]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287576453/3/2013 6:56:07 PMGottfriedJ., I found no 'momentum' indicator on stockcharts. Maybe the 12 and 25 sma is a fair substitute?http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287576343/3/2013 6:45:44 PMGottfriedhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287575953/3/2013 6:16:10 PMJeromeArticle for the basis of this talk. stockdisciplines.com  There are a number of articles here but they are based on good analytical foundations. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287575533/3/2013 5:44:54 PMJeromeHi Gottfried... from your list HPQ and GLW are two that I own. HPQ is interesting because it got nothing but bad press, the past year and the more the stock sank the more bad press it generated. Now the process is reversed. Good press along with a PE about 5 points the way to a better near term future stock price. G...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287575403/3/2013 5:33:05 PMGottfriedlet's screen for these conditions [Ignore one day spikes and higher than normal volume in the last five days] visually for now. There are few stocks to screen visually [after the stockcharts screen] I'd like to read the article. Any screening requests? Stockcharts makes it easy to use indices and groups. You can even...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287574953/3/2013 5:11:23 PMJeromeGood work Gottfried. Some minor condition to go along with this screen. Ignore one day spikes. Higher than normal volume in the last five days is a major plus. A reversal would be the 10 and 20 day crossing the 200day moving average. This indicator is a good starting point. Its a basic indicator that has been prov...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287574553/3/2013 4:46:48 PMGottfriedthese SP500 stocks met the criteria [sma12 and sma25 above sma200 less than 20 days ago] AZO CNP GLW HPQ KO LO MJN PBI PCG PEG SCG SE T VFC VRSN VZ XELhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287573703/3/2013 3:58:25 PMGottfriedI've added a condition that the cross criteria was NOT met 20 days ago and ATVI is the only NDX stock that passed. This eliminates stocks that met the criteria months ago and now are too high to buy. For the SP100 HPQ T KO and VZ passed the screen. Any suggestions? Screen [type is stock] and [today's sma(12,close) > ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287573333/3/2013 3:30:16 PMGottfriedJerome, I set up a scan on stockcharts.com and 75 NDX stocks out of 100 pass the screen. The screening algorythm is For the last market close: [TYPE IS STOCK] AND [TODAY'S SMA(12,CLOSE) > TODAY'S SMA(200,CLOSE)] AND [TODAY'S SMA(25,CLOSE) > TODAY'S SMA(200,CLOSE)] AND [GROUP IS NASDAQ100] Here's the list [work in pro...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287573003/3/2013 3:08:53 PMGottfriedJerome, thanks for that indicator! One could set it up as a screen and then run it on all NDX stocks, for examplehttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287572673/3/2013 2:41:58 PMJeromeBuy signals for AMAT and BRKS Some time back ( six moths ago) I read an article from Investopedia that stated that the most reliable buy signal for a stock was when the 12 and 25 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average. They claimed to have run 46,000 simulations of various combinations and this was th...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287572203/3/2013 1:48:17 PMGottfriedSEMI data January 2013 semi.org  Next SEMI Book-to-Bill: March 21,2013 at 3:00pm Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) SEMI charts are at... screencast.com  SEMI chart from 2001 [graphic] SEMI chart from 1995 [graphic] Ratio of SEMI billings to SIA ww chip sales [graphic]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287421152/22/2013 11:29:49 PMrobert b furmanMaybe quicker. What I considered a generational run Started in October 1998 and peaked around March/april 2000. Although it was a mighty distribution it all occurred with in 18 months and then it blew up and hasn't been the same since. sigh Bob I viewed that as a fifth wave final wave runup - Most I trust and b...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287365472/20/2013 2:17:49 PMWoody_Nickelshttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287361262/20/2013 12:07:17 PMThe Ox UPDATE 1-Applied Materials forecasts strong quarter as orders pick up Feb 12 (Reuters) - Chip gear maker Applied Materials Inc , the world's largest chip gear maker, posted higher-than-expected quarterly results as demand for its display and semiconductor products picked up, and forecast current-quarter results la...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287250852/14/2013 5:03:58 AMrobert b furmanHi OX, Time for the drum roll and earnings tomorrow - critical time and I can not tell you which way she goes: No position and I'm watching: screencast.com  Bob Hoping for further break out but would love to rebuy a retracement - if it takes longer and it surely might. Bobhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287208612/12/2013 11:27:12 AMThe OxApplied Materials Inc. ( NASDAQ: AMAT) short interest grew by 40% to 16.73 million shares. That is about 1.4% of the company’s float.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287206382/12/2013 9:58:28 AMrobert b furmanEarnings in 2 days. If I remember correctly in October 1998, the earnings didn't need to be up - just the orders reversing. If Amat gives us what Klac did - it will move the sector IMO Bobhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287191922/11/2013 2:11:42 PMThe OxThe very good news is that the new blue bar in the chart is substantially higher than the last few. In the past, more often than not, this has signaled the start of a new upward period. This may be why we are seeing AMAT in a steady rising trend!?!http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287191862/11/2013 2:08:28 PMrobert b furmanCould be quite high. Apple makes a new lower price phone - competition in emerging markets can sell a lot of chips. The add a new watch and TV - with competitors as usual 18 months behind. Could be powerfully up for quite a while. A lot of chips to be sold G !! Bobhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287191562/11/2013 2:00:57 PMGottfriedhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287191432/11/2013 1:55:51 PMrobert b furmanHi G, Sure makes the end of 11 and all of 12 look like a nasty trough (regarding the YOY change of chip sales) Looks like we may be working out of a slump? Bobhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287188352/11/2013 12:03:38 PMGottfriedSIA December 2012 ww chip sales SIA data sia-online.org  charts ww chip sales with SEMI equipment bookings ww chip sales and y-o-y change ww chip sales change with SEMI equipment bookings screencast.com  RSS feed available on the screencast page above [graphic] [graphic] [graphic]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287164532/9/2013 7:11:58 PMGottfriedSEMI data December 2012 semi.org  Notes from SEMI: Next SEMI Book-to-Bill: February 21, 2013 • at 3:00pm PST SEMI charts are at... screencast.com  SEMI chart from 2001 content.screencast.com  [graphic] SEMI chart from 1995 content.screencast.com  [graphic] Ratio of SEMI billings to SIA ww chip sales content.s...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286886811/26/2013 10:53:10 AMSun Tzuhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286700771/17/2013 12:49:27 PMbacchus_iihttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286700311/17/2013 12:37:01 PMSun TzuOT - A belated happy new year everyone. I have an idea about a chip that I'd like to build and I'd like to learn more about how to go about it. I have a degree in VLSI design but my knowledge is outdated. The chip I am after is ultra large BUT it has two characteristics that should make it feasible: (1) there is ve...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286680531/16/2013 3:02:23 PMGottfriedOT - I'm just observing AAPL. Today "Prelim. Bearish Price Obj. (Revised): 424.00" stockcharts.com  your observations make sense to mehttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286651961/15/2013 12:34:00 PMThe OxOT - AAPL Agree, 448 is a 75% retrace of the run up from the June '11 lows to the 702 top. However, the risk reward balance is now in favor of buying here, with only 40 points to the downside. I have $648 as the current upside target of 75% retrace of the drop from 702 to 485. The analyst who cut AAPL today (and...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286650911/15/2013 11:51:53 AMGottfriedhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286648651/15/2013 10:25:55 AMGottfriedhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286643231/14/2013 10:14:46 PMJeromeAMAT's a problem in this tech market for the past two years. The stock has deteriorated from 16 to 11 per share in the past two years. finance.yahoo.com  Its been two years of dead money, with little hope on the horizon.. Unless earnings explode to the upside this year looks no better than the last two. But AMAT ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=286590751/11/2013 7:56:10 PM