Copyright © 2013 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=18363 This thread is to propose and discuss stocks in which Warren Buffett may invest. The world's greatest investor deserves study and discussion. There is a new book out called "Buffettology," by his ex-daughter-in-law. Preferably, contributors here will have read this book, and be prepared to discu...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/images/Logo380x132.pnghttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=1836338013210Sr KMARKETS | Updated May 16, 2013, 9:53 a.m. ET S&P Cuts Rating on Berkshire Hathaway By ERIK HOLM Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. had its credit rating cut one notch to double-A by Standard & Poor's, which cited the conglomerate's reliance on its insurance operations. The downgrade comes after S&P revised t...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288978825/16/2013 10:49:50 AMPaul SeniorI hold a little WFB and will extend my bank holdings with a starting small buy of USB this morning. I view USB as a weak buy within a strong general market.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288841115/9/2013 9:36:52 AMShane Mthanks for the reminder about the CNBC interview. I'll have to see if they replay it on TV.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288835785/8/2013 10:11:56 PMJurgis BekepurisBerkshire weekend links: beta.fool.com  - Motley Fool summary of Berkshire annual meeting money.cnn.com  - Buffett's interview at UNO mostly about women in business, but some good general quips as always. cnbc.com  - Buffett interview on CNBC. (~3 hours) cnbc.com  - Munger interview on CNBC http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288832495/8/2013 6:33:08 PMJurgis BekepurisInteresting that they don't buy back their own stock right now at 395 C$. This must mean that they don't consider it very undervalued.Well, price is above book a bit. I guess they are similar to Buffett: even though Buffett believes that BRK is worth (much) more than book, he does not really aggressively buy back sto...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288488134/20/2013 6:58:55 PMSpekulatiusCove Street capitals notes from Fairfax FFH.TO annual meeting: covestreetcapital.com  Interesting that they don't buy back their own stock right now at 395 C$. This must mean that they don't consider it very undervalued.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288484084/20/2013 1:03:23 PMprabinShane, There are few value investing groups in facebook. you just have to search. you can search by value investing on facebook "group" or by berkshire or contrarian...etc..some of them post their pic of omaha events and some tallk about how to reserve a room in omaha etc ...and sometime its like old and successful bu...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288377614/16/2013 12:46:56 AMPaul SeniorVRSN. I'll step up for a tracking position (just a few shares). Following in after the Buffett surrogate(s) investing for him who bought VRSN. gurufocus.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288321094/12/2013 6:41:22 PMJurgis Bekepurishttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288232704/8/2013 10:45:57 PMPaul SeniorLot of investment pro's owning KO. I don't see many (only Greenblatt) in COKE though. At COKE's current price, I'm interested. I'll take a few shares for a tracking/spec position. finance.yahoo.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288226064/8/2013 3:18:21 PMSr K That deal, struck in the week following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., gave Mr. Buffett preferred shares yielding 10% and warrants conferring the right to purchase 43.5 million Goldman shares at below-market prices. The WSJ is mixing today's GS price with the strike price of those warrants. Obviously...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288014293/27/2013 1:05:29 AMGlenn PetersenBerkshire Set to Get Big Goldman Stake Deal Marks Lucrative Twist to Warren Buffett's Crisis-Era Investment in Bank By ERIK HOLM And JUSTIN BAER Wall Street Journal Updated March 26, 2013, 6:49 p.m. ET Leave it to Warren Buffett to find a way to get hold of 10 million Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shares without ha...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288013373/26/2013 11:22:38 PMPete MasonI went about twelve years back or so. The funniest part was standing in line to board the flight to Omaha out of Dallas, overhearing the conversation behind me. Some girl was talking with her friend, remarking on how amazingly crowded this flight was, she had to go to Omaha every now and then on business, and the flig...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287732373/11/2013 8:43:11 PMgumnamShane - I went there about 8 years back and I would guess it is even bigger now. It was fun to listen to Buffet and Munger but we were sitting in a stadium. So it is not very different from listening to him on TV. The cool part was the tour of all the Netjet planes and modular housing and Sees candies and various co...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287659073/7/2013 3:18:35 PMJurgis BekepurisShane, As a general I dislike big crowds, but I kindof wonder if I should go to one of the Berkshire meetings just to say I've done it. And even though I'm not much on the celebrity thing - Warren is one of the famous people that I'd be interested in meeting, or at least be in the same arena with. The event has ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287583873/4/2013 9:30:16 AMShane MAs a general I dislike big crowds, but I kindof wonder if I should go to one of the Berkshire meetings just to say I've done it. And even though I'm not much on the celebrity thing - Warren is one of the famous people that I'd be interested in meeting, or at least be in the same arena with. The event has gotten so bi...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287582023/4/2013 6:30:12 AMJurgis Bekepurisp. 12 "Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations" - color me unimpressed by 7% ROE. Buffett cites 16.3% return-on-net-tangible-assets on page 13, but that's also not very impressive when you realize that it's not ROE and for most "Buffettology" companies return-on-net-tangible-assets is much higher. As true val...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287570363/3/2013 11:55:53 AMSr KCoca-Cola has a problem with the not "simply" orange juice: bloomberg.com  Coca-Cola Must Face Lawsuit Over Orange Juice Labeling By Andrew Harris - Mar 1, 2013 6:30 PM ET Coca-Cola Co. (KO), the world’s largest soft-drink maker, must face a consumer lawsuit challenging the labeling of its Simply Orange, Minute Maid ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287554093/1/2013 11:48:56 PMSr KLargest position: Wells Fargo (WFC) Only position with an unrealized loss: Tesco plc Page 15http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287550583/1/2013 7:12:07 PMGlenn PetersenThe letter: berkshirehathaway.com  Business Insider's initial take: BUFFETT'S ANNUAL LETTER: We Had A Crappy Year Joe Weisenthal| Business Insider Mar. 1, 2013, 4:01 PM Just out: Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter. We'll be reading through it and bringing you the best of the observations here. F...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287550413/1/2013 6:59:15 PMShane MRe: One of the possible Buffett criteria is longevity of the product agree. one of the key takeaways from the Buffettology book for me was centrality of long term predictability.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287432002/23/2013 10:59:05 PMJurgis BekepurisHere's another exercise I did yesterday. One of the possible Buffett criteria is longevity of the product: KO sells the same Coke now as it sold 10 years ago and will still sell Coke 10 years in the future (unless there is a much bigger backlash against carbonated drinks); same with WFC, AXP, MCO and even no-longer-Buf...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287404982/22/2013 9:40:14 AMJurgis Bekepurishttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287376602/20/2013 10:43:52 PMShane M(I forget whether he has some externally imposed limit above which he cannot go with AXP) I think you're right on this. I believe I recently read that he is maxed out on AXP due to banking regulations and all of his various financial interests. RE quote: So, is the answer: "Never sell, except when business loses it...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287374642/20/2013 8:52:47 PMShane M"Let's say you hold stock YYYY and it goes down - should you add, sell or hold? Any ideas?" Sorry if I rambled. On one of your questions: Assuming I'm already at a "full" position in YYYY In this scenario my "rule" is to not add until I'm back profitable in my existing position. I've staggered my buys now to arrive...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287374452/20/2013 8:42:43 PMPaul SeniorOT: I have shares of several on those two lists. Fwiw, I will go for a few tracking shares of LMT now. And average up just a bit on my MAUXF position.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287348622/19/2013 5:47:07 PMJurgis BekepurisI think your answer was a bit diagonal to what I was asking. :) Maybe I did not express myself clearly. :) Let's try to rephrase it: 1. Winner that will keep winning - Hold it! (or buy it) 2. Winner that will stop winning - Sell it! 3. Loser that will turn around - Hold it and Buy it! 4. Loser that will keep losing -...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287320742/18/2013 1:11:08 AMShane M3. Before I buy an new stock I try to determine a-priori if I will average up or average down on a stock. For value stocks I generally commit to average down on a small starting position. This has provided me with satisfactory results. Agree. I now try to buy in either 2 or 3 stages as I work into a full positio...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287320492/17/2013 11:58:40 PMShane MOK, can we find a way to deal with this? Clearly "hold winners, sell losers" is not a solution either - that's pure momentum investing and it does not work (at least it does not work for me). It seems to me, we have to find a way to distinguish 4 situations: 1. Winner that will keep winning - Hold it! (or buy it) 2. ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287320442/17/2013 11:51:27 PMJurgis BekepurisPaul, I think we've covered our differences before, but just to recap: Greenblatt doesn't go far enough. He has a stock picking selection process for stocks that imo are basically in the top quadrant for high roic and low p/e. What I want and use are selection process for the other quadrants too. I am willing...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287311692/17/2013 11:49:54 AMJurgis BekepurisCommon thread: high ROE, low valuation, somewhat longish positive earnings and good ROE history. Constraints are somewhat soft though. Valuation is mostly Discounted Earnings but really in most situations this is almost the same as good P/E, or good E/EV, etc, so really using one vs another is largely academic. DCF ma...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287311472/17/2013 11:27:27 AMPaul SeniorI'll briefly repeat some of my ideas which might be related to current discussion. 1. Greenblatt doesn't go far enough. He has a stock picking selection process for stocks that imo are basically in the top quadrant for high roic and low p/e. What I want and use are selection process for the other quadrants too....http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287309302/17/2013 2:32:50 AMPaul SeniorThx for the list. I'll check 'em out. Is there a common thread I should be seeing? Looks like low p/e.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287309122/17/2013 1:49:32 AMJurgis BekepurisHere's a list of stocks that are interesting to me (not necessarily Buffettology, but possibly) and are buys at this time: GAME, AAPL, PMGLF, STO, CYOU, STX, CJES, XLS, AGXKF, WDC, COP, ATK, PWRD, NICK, CF, DRAGF, GA, LMCA, TOT The following stocks are close to buy price: FN, ADVC, EAC, MAUXF, JOY, HLF, CVX, NUS, CSTR...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287308812/17/2013 12:27:23 AMJurgis BekepurisThe majority of professional managers regularly underperform the indexes, so the type of discussion from that article fits well w. my prevailing paradigm, and maybe I accept this line of thinking too easily, even though it's hard for me to accept because I'd like to think I can do better. ;-) forbes.com  I believe...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287308582/16/2013 11:34:35 PMShane MIf you know your performance over the past few years - you're doing better than most. Most people couldn't tell you how they've done. It's actually kindof complicated to do unless you carefully keep track of your inputs/outflows from your accounts. I can understand some folks that are more naturally immune to the th...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287307462/16/2013 9:10:12 PMJurgis BekepurisBRK holdings update. Most changes are most likely not Buffett, except IBM/JNJ/WFC and perhaps Kraft/MDLZ/WMT. My percentages are eyeballed, look at cnbc.com  or similar for more precise numbers. - ADM - new position - DVA - increased ~30% - DTV - increased ~10% - GM - increased ~60% - IBM - increased ~1% - JNJ - decr...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287306832/16/2013 7:31:52 PMJurgis BekepurisAlthough I have underperformed the market in last two years, I disagree with the "The research on individual stock ownership is voluminous and overwhelmingly damning. ... individual stock pickers made every mistake in the book: underperforming index funds; Actually, if someone underperformed index funds over the...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287296532/16/2013 12:16:33 AMJurgis Bekepurislack of book value growth kindof turns me offI've only been looking at book value growth for insurance companies where it is one of the main criteria for good vs. bad companies. (Even there, I am a softie and sometimes buy or don't sell companies that don't grow book at good percentage for one-two years). I've only rec...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287296062/15/2013 11:31:26 PMShane MThought this had some interesting stats about the demise of individual stock investing with some good statistics that I was unaware of behind the rise of ETF investing. marketwatch.com  quote from article related to some recent discussions here: "The research on individual stock ownership is voluminous and overwhelm...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287292562/15/2013 8:03:48 PMShane MHNZ was not on my interest list either. I looked at some charts I have to see whats different from what I look for from a numeric standpoint. The lack of sales per share growth and lack of book value growth kindof turns me off, and the ROE had been falling for several years, but looks to be ticking up again recently. ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287273982/15/2013 3:19:08 AMJurgis BekepurisShane, Thanks for elaborating on your process. I certainly know where you are coming from, I'm in computer science myself and worked in data analysis area somewhat. Unlike you, I have not been very positive about elaborate screens or analytical models for investing. I have toyed with some ideas of automated analysis,...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287273382/15/2013 12:53:24 AMShane MJurgis, I'm certainly not advocating any approach over another. Everybody's got to find what they're comfortable with. I find it hard to stick to any one thing myself. I simply do what I do because it's where my strengths lie. For many years I spent nearly every working day of my life with databases and building m...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287272162/14/2013 10:18:33 PMShane Mhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287270342/14/2013 8:56:29 PMSr KA record closing price for BRKA, but intraday, it was higher in December 2007: Dec 12, 2007150,300.00150,300.00140,800.00144,000.0065,000144,000.00Dec 11, 2007150,000.00151,650.00148,800.00148,900.0059,000148,900.00 Yahoo Financehttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287265462/14/2013 4:53:39 PMJurgis BekepurisShane, On one hand, I understand the appeal of running a Magic Formula or Buffettology screener first and then getting screened companies into Excel for more detailed screening and for manual review. Certainly this guarantees that initial companies are not picked emotionally and satisfy all quantitative conditions. Si...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287253682/14/2013 9:51:12 AMShane MJurgis, OT: I've had good spells and bad spells. Recently not as good as in the past as I've been adapting my process to reach out for some new ideas. The Buffettology approach that worked very well for a long time just wasn't generating very many picks for me at all. I hope it comes back some and generates more ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287250562/14/2013 3:14:39 AMJurgis BekepurisShane, Honestly, I never liked screening/backtesting. Did not seem useful to me. However, it's quite possible that my results would be better if I only selected stocks from Magic Formula screen or something similar. :) If I remember correctly, you start with screens and narrow from there - and get better results than ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287249332/14/2013 12:11:27 AMShane MJurgis, if you like his approach you might check his website too he set up at portfolio123.com Seems like a pretty cool screener/backtester which includes historical fundamental data filters. I considered it but have not used it because I'd have to drop my other data source to fit into my budget for this kind of stu...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287246242/13/2013 9:11:41 PMJurgis BekepurisSome guy on SA presents his Buffettology picks: GMCR, MOG.A, NUS, PCP, SNN, VAR seekingalpha.com  I have no positions in these. Might look (or relook) at them.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287236092/13/2013 1:14:55 PM