Copyright © 2013 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=12382February 1, 2010 I have always been interested in predicting major market direction changes and how to benefit from them with option plays. The theme here is about predicting major changes... - what indicators may serve us to anticipate a major market trend change, and; - how can we tell the e...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/images/Logo380x132.pnghttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=1238238013210William H Hueblhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288821965/8/2013 11:44:13 AMWilliam H HueblMr. Market is never wrong... forget that at your own peril. I read an interesting statistic the other day - over 90% of investors don't make money in the markets! Something to ponder. BTW, one of the most successful investors I know personally uses a system of buying and selling utilities when the yields change. I...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288752885/4/2013 5:26:05 PMVitasThe move up Friday was not supposed to happen per previous sell signal patterns. I have to assume the signal is wrong. "As soon as you think you've got the key to the stock market, they change the lock." -- Joe Granvillehttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288749905/4/2013 1:51:52 PMGROUND ZERO™TO ALL POSTERS: PUT SOME FUN IN YOUR LIFE, BECOME A MARKET GURU AND BE THE ENVY OF YOUR FRIENDS... A NEW MARKET GURU CONTEST FOR MAY BEGINS THIS EVENING, TRY YOUR LUCK AND TEST YOUR GURU SKILLS... YOU'LL HAVE SOME LAUGHS AND A TON OF FUN, JOIN IN... WE EVEN HAVE A BOOBY PRIZE FO...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288658604/30/2013 6:03:49 AMWilliam H Hueblhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288639744/29/2013 7:35:09 AMVitasIntermediate correction, down. I wouldn't call a 7% correction, if that is all it is, a BK. The only issue that I see is that after the first move to 1550 or so it may want to try a third rally as it did in October 2012, back to around 1585. Maybe, maybe not. You tell me. IBM had a very negative response to their...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288634734/28/2013 6:22:14 PMWilliam H HueblI am not that the lone VI- breakout on SPX is a strong enough indicator to call for a BK! Yet?http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288634374/28/2013 5:48:56 PMWilliam H Hueblhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288634204/28/2013 5:41:47 PMVitasSPX Coppock Curve seems to be weakening, with lower peaks. RSI is a day or two of weakness from going back below its Nov - Feb uptrend line. stockcharts.com  I did not bet the farm on this one, just short SPX ETF's.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288630254/28/2013 11:52:16 AMVitasIBM Post-Earnings May Set U.S. Stock Direction: Chart of the Day 2013-04-19 04:00:15.0 GMT By David Wilson April 19 (Bloomberg) -- International Business Machines Corp.’s stock performance today will send a signal about where U.S. shares are headed through Memorial Day, according to Paul Hickey, co-founder of Be...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288629854/28/2013 11:20:26 AMVitas[graphic] How about IBM's weak earnings?http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288629814/28/2013 11:15:38 AMWilliam H HueblThe question is, IMHO, what would indicate weakness in the markets? Well the longer term directional indicators like VTX and DM/ADX would have to break down and they are not close to it yet. That is not to say we don't have weakness as a possibility in the short term. So like I say, don't bet the farm on it. BWDIK...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288626984/27/2013 11:19:47 PMVitashttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288611444/26/2013 5:07:30 PMWilliam H Hueblhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288601174/26/2013 9:19:04 AMVitasI referred to a possibility of a Thursday higher high which fails. It didn't fail, but it did fade. I hope that's it for the rally.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288589764/25/2013 4:52:10 PMWilliam H HueblThe doji (star) formed today shows indecision in the market so you could be right. And based on prior pullbacks in this move up, I would guess more like 10% pullback.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288568374/24/2013 5:06:50 PMVitasMy guess is that we are within a day of an intermediate term top. Theoretically we would get one more up day Wednesday, and possibly a higher intraday high Thursday which fails, but if it starts breaking down tomorrow then that may be it. Can't rule out one more attempt at this area next week, but I don't think it wi...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288550004/23/2013 8:53:47 PMWilliam H Hueblhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288527084/22/2013 9:45:09 PMWilliam H Hueblhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288491434/21/2013 12:48:19 AMWilliam H Hueblhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288491324/21/2013 12:37:33 AMVitasThe SPX intra day high on April 11 was 1597.35. 1597 is a number in the Fibonacci sequence - ..... 987, 1597, 2584.... Imagine if it turns out to be the mother of a SPX high? -g- I am waiting for my secondary indicator to trace out a pattern to trigger a sell point. If it does. It has already given the negative w...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288475834/19/2013 9:33:11 PMrobert b furmanhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288461974/19/2013 12:30:03 PMWilliam H HueblCool charts... thanks. Just remember (and never forget) that markets do not move in straight lines!http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288449954/18/2013 8:54:42 PMrobert b furmanHi Bill, Many stocks rolling over and the sound ones that every body knows are safe are particularly toxic. Never changes - the widely held are in weak hands and distribution has already been achieved. Two most toxic are the two safe havens: GLD : screencast.com  Damaged goods for a long time now. AAPL: screenc...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288431294/18/2013 10:21:03 AMWilliam H Hueblschaefferstradingfloor.com  "The market doesn't care what you think!" Margin debt is nearing an all time high! schaefferstradingfloor.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288430934/18/2013 10:13:50 AMWilliam H HueblSo far it looks like you are right about NK... and since even our own government is putting out "...time is getting short..." apparently Israel will act in concert with others soon. Now that may be a game changer. BTW, looks like we will soon see a resolution of the up or down signals from the markets - waiting for l...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288429774/18/2013 9:40:12 AMWilliam H HueblThe max. forecast from SPY based on P&F charts is 166 which is equivalent to 1,660 on SPX. Still have a way to go unless NK decides to do something...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288264474/10/2013 1:31:06 PMWilliam H HueblIt's a crap shoot as far as what happens first. Even Obama is saying that time is getting short for Iran. And the Chinese are telling NK to back off - their behavior is unacceptable. So you may well be right.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288217624/8/2013 8:25:20 AMrobert b furmanPast Performance suggests rhetoric is the only substance. I think Iran is the greater danger or what Israel will do too them with or with out us. Bobhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288215214/7/2013 10:36:32 PMWilliam H HueblThanks, Bob. We may well know next week. Let's see what happens April 10th! I shudder to think the NKs are nuts enough to start something. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288214174/7/2013 9:12:11 PMrobert b furmanHi Bill, screencast.com  minus DI is still very low and Macd may just be showing a very short term dip. I'm just guessing at this point to be honest. Bob Please make it clear.<smile>http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288207744/7/2013 12:39:12 PMWilliam H HueblRSI breakdown on SPY is near - probably next week if downtrend continues. I find that indicator is pretty conclusive but not absolute... no absolute indicators except Mr. Market. But MACD is fairly convincing now...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288200994/6/2013 5:08:15 PMVitasI am getting a mixed picture here. My primary intermediate sell signal has not triggered yet. However a secondary signal has delivered a strong warning signal, reaching a level of 63 last week. Over 48 is in the sell zone. In April 2010 it had reached 55, in February 2011 58, in March 2012 56, in September 2012 50....http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288198774/6/2013 2:40:05 PMWilliam H HueblNorth Korea may be beginning to weigh on the markets: beforeitsnews.com  The last paragraph of this article: "This is big and bad. This (embassy evacuations requests) rarely happens unless there is war. It happened in Syria, it happened in Iraq. Again, maybe this is all just a big bluff but I'm starting not to ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288190984/5/2013 11:05:47 PMWilliam H HueblHi Bob, Nice monthly chart.... what concerns me about price is that it is in a broadening formation with it's origin back sometime before the 90s and they never end well, being caused, typically, by investor emotions. If I am right, we are about at the peak now for this leg up. A shorter term chart below -bottom - s...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288090613/31/2013 10:17:28 PMWilliam H Hueblhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288090173/31/2013 9:17:36 PMGROUND ZERO™TO ALL POSTERS: PUT SOME FUN IN YOUR LIFE, BECOME A MARKET GURU AND BE THE ENVY OF YOUR FRIENDS... A NEW MARKET GURU CONTEST FOR APRIL BEGINS THIS EVENING, TRY YOUR LUCK AND TEST YOUR GURU SKILLS... YOU'LL HAVE SOME LAUGHS AND A TON OF FUN, JOIN IN... WE EVEN HAVE A BOOBY PRIZE F...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288088413/31/2013 6:43:35 PMVitashttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288083113/31/2013 10:38:57 AMrobert b furmanHi Bill, It seems we either go parabolic or roll over here to me. screencast.com  I prefer parabolic but am scared to even type it.LOL Bobhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288080833/30/2013 11:33:18 PMWilliam H Hueblhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=288080583/30/2013 11:12:27 PMWilliam H HueblHaving met 153 the spy P&F forecasters are now showing values as high as 200 on a weekly basis. That is 2,000 in spx terms.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287778583/14/2013 11:30:03 AMWilliam H HueblRight... the KST indicator is negative but could be turning positive also. If the markets are going to tank, it may be until mid-April before that happens. Unless someone pushes a button somewhere... BWDIK?http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287699073/9/2013 3:49:29 PMVitasLooks like the Coppock held the zero line and turned up. I don't have an intermediate sell signal yet. WSJ money flow has weakened to below its 50 day MA so this should be the start of a distribution phase lasting a month or more with somewhat higher prices to come. BWDIK.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287697373/9/2013 1:33:19 PMWilliam H HueblGaps usually do get filled... so we will have to wait and see. And markets rarely move in straight lines... as seen by yesterday's move.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287512992/28/2013 6:28:28 AMGary105Agree. But I think it will give the appearance of a rollover to continue investor complacency. Ultimately we go much lower. Long term unfilled S&P gap in the 905 area. BWDIKhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287468552/26/2013 3:04:39 AMWilliam H HueblHere is what I have and in a different chart, the adx D- has not broken out - meaning down: [graphic]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287467492/25/2013 11:43:42 PMVitasI'm looking at WSJ money flows. online.wsj.com  It took a hit today but is still generally in an uptrend since the November and December lows. That may change quickly with further weakness. New lows on the NYSE today were 26; if that starts going over 40 there would be a problem. The Sequester is probably overha...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287463982/25/2013 8:35:20 PMWilliam H HueblI don't know what you are looking at but neither CMI nor MFI did... most of what I am looking at shows a definite breakdown. Maybe you are looking at weekly charts? Maybe it is a sign that Israel is about to go on the move???http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287457152/25/2013 2:48:37 PMWilliam H HueblPeak for SPY is around 153 or 163, whichever P&F charts you want to believe. And the gallery view makes me thing it is more than a rollover... in slow motion.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287456852/25/2013 2:38:03 PMVitasWe need to consider whether the drop this week is the start of an intermediate correction as in February 2011 or simply a small blip in a strong uptrend as in February - March 2012. So far since money flow made a new high Friday for the move that started in November my guess is further up. BWDIKhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=287427432/23/2013 3:27:27 PM