Copyright © 2013 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=10036Ok, how about a value investing thread? What we are looking for are value plays. Value plays in the Ben Graham tradition. We want to stay away from the obscenely high PE's and look at net working capital models, etc. Schooling in the art of fundamental analysis is also appropriate here. Good ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/images/Logo380x132.pnghttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=1003638013210SpekulatiusThe Fund is crap. I don't like the holdings in that fund much either at current prices, including FAF. FAF benefits from refinancing activity quite a bit, which would drastically slow down if interest rates were to rise. I also think that title insurance could become dramatically cheaper. On average title insurance o...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289083835/22/2013 2:30:35 AMJurgis BekepurisKSS does not seem cheap to me. Also my wife strongly prefers TJX, so that's what we have in her account, although it's even more expensive.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289083585/22/2013 1:21:17 AMBrian SullivanI own both WDC and KSS. I also own STX as both of these disk drive companies are trading as if Hard drives are no longer necessary. But there always will be a high demand for the lowest cost / highest density storagehttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289083505/22/2013 1:08:52 AMJurgis Bekepuris Anyone see any good value bets in the top 10 of this value fund?I own WDC. IMHO, it's still cheap (maybe). I own tiny position in AHL. I prefer other insurance companies, but AHL is cheap (too). I thought that CSTR was interesting but Q1 results were pretty bad. So unless you have an in-depth insight, probably avoid....http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289083315/22/2013 12:37:15 AMresearch1234http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289076815/21/2013 5:49:50 PMJurgis BekepurisI think I mostly agree with you Paul. Sells should be valuation based mostly. So it does not matter if stock is up 100% or down 50% if the valuation is bad - sell, if it is good - hold or buy. OTOH, for some companies - dinky companies mostly - the100% gain based on unclear reasons might be a good place to take mone...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289075235/21/2013 4:30:42 PMGrommitHi Paul, you wrote this: > I have always disliked the expression, "You can never go broke taking a profit". Here's why "selling half and letting the other half ride" can be very dangerous, if not stupid: Sorry. I thought that that was all there was to it, and did not figure out that you were against the policy...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289074395/21/2013 3:53:49 PME_K_SWPX Energy, Inc. (WPX) - New all time high @ $20.29 +0.53 +2.68% Stock hit an all time high today up 25% since last discussed 6/2012. I will continue to hold my small position. This one was a spin off from WMB. I added a few shares in 6/2012 at $15.00/share. Company has good reserves and their NG reserves in part...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289073685/21/2013 3:18:24 PMPaul SeniorGrommit, I don't understand your reply to me. I'm saying about 5 or 6 people here seem to like or applaud the idea of selling 1/2 after 100% gain. Maybe letting the rest ride. And I disagree with that as a strategy or tactic. I'm saying the stock sale decision should not be "sell 1/2 after a double" a criter...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289069595/21/2013 1:03:14 PMJurgis BekepurisYeah, great presentation. Some comments: - Shiny new toy - yes, definitely happens to me. However, I usually buy small position and then add later. This negates the issue a bit. - Beer goggles - happening right now. Muuuussssssttttt ressssissssstttttt - Attack of the analysts - you really have to have strong convictio...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289066965/21/2013 11:50:03 AMGrommitFAF and FNF might not be such a deal... FAF finance.yahoo.com  FNF finance.yahoo.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289065245/21/2013 10:49:39 AMGrommitNice link. Thanks. They say that they are portfolio manager for TILDX. I see that FAF is a top holding in TILDX. They mentioned FAF/FNF in the link. Maybe worth looking at. Not impressive here: finance.yahoo.com  Anyone see any good value bets in the top 10 of this value fund? finance.yahoo.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289064365/21/2013 10:20:55 AMGrommitPaul, I have rarely seen you so confused. When one buys a stock he should have a good understanding of the value. This is a value thread. Clown-spek calls it intrinsic value. And you should generally have an idea of what full value looks like. You may not calculate it at the time, buy as the stock appreciates...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289062865/21/2013 9:17:46 AMgolfer72Good discussion here. I guess I look at it more from a traders perspective. I see people saying they havent lost until they sell and they hold onto stocks as they spiral downward. I have also seen many paper profits go poof very quickly.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289060825/21/2013 5:08:46 AMPaul SeniorI don't see where the person is actually buying stocks and selling them at 100% gain, so I can't see if that works or has worked for him. Let me then address the five people who recommended his post. Consider the case of a gal who comes on the thread and asks could you see life insurer NWLI a value buy for her at...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289060205/21/2013 2:17:50 AMSpekulatiusPretty good presentation from Zeke Ashton right along the line we have talked about: designs.valueinvestorinsight.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289060025/21/2013 1:45:56 AMJurgis BekepurisIt does depend on the market and valuation. Most buy-and-hold was dead through the lost decade, although there were exceptions. OTOH if you have a bull market decade, selling slightly overvalued stock in the beginning of bull run would lead to underperformance as stocks run away and you're stuck with cash. You say tha...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289059795/21/2013 1:00:55 AMSpekulatiusRe - Selling winners the Key phrase is "in a short period of time". He cites a couple of examples where selling those winners would have been a mistake, but did those stocks go up a lot "in a short period of time"? I don't really know? My take is that intrinsic value is a moving number but it's probably a slowly mov...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289059705/21/2013 12:43:12 AMWoody_NickelsI disagree. It takes a lot of 4% dividends to match a 100% cap gain, even after paying 15-20% cap gains tax. jmhohttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289059585/21/2013 12:34:21 AMJurgis BekepurisTSLA - Someone told me that TSLA is a value stock last year. I just laughed. Now they are laughing all the way to the bank (if they bought and held :)). I'll put it to the "too hard" bucket. Clearly they succeeded in round one of the race (haha). Not sure they will succeed in the next rounds.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289059545/21/2013 12:31:12 AMJurgis BekepurisI mostly agree with you. There are very few values left and the remaining ones are disappearing by day. Even the questionable values like WU or GLW are running up. I'm leery of selling since everything I sold so far is higher. So I mostly hold. In larger caps, I only see CF/YARIY, JPM/(BAC/C?), AAPL, STX/WDC, STO/TOT...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289059485/21/2013 12:24:47 AMresearch1234Depends on whether you are buying stock for cap appreciation or dividends. If the latter, its hard to come out ahead after selling, paying taxes on cap gains, and then missing dividends while waiting for a good reentry point.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289059045/20/2013 11:35:19 PMPaul SeniorSo Warren Buffett hasn't made a dime on WFC or KO because he hasn't sold any of these shares that he's collected over the years?http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289057815/20/2013 8:01:09 PMgolfer72Selling half of a stock that doubles is smart and calling it dangerous is absurd. Remember, you havent made a dime until you sell.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289057315/20/2013 7:19:02 PMPaul SeniorThis Seeking Alpha guy has written a pretty good argument against selling a stock just because it appreciates a certain amount or because it appreciated really quickly. I have always disliked the expression, "You can never go broke taking a profit". Here's why "selling half and letting the other half ride" can be...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289055155/20/2013 5:15:27 PMGrommitCNP. Sold all of 'em. More than fairly valued -- a utility with a PE of 20 & insiders selling. Owned them since mid january. Also -- ATO partial sale. finance.yahoo.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289050905/20/2013 2:48:48 PMPaul SeniorCSCO. I'll add a little bit more to my position. Stock has moved up on a good quarterly report. I don't see it falling back much... could though. A Graham fair-value at $15 buy now seems far away from current $23.67. If I base my view on reversion-to-mean consideration, then I'd say in good times (which ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289048935/20/2013 1:34:06 PMDennis 3<1999 dor that matter was very different, the bubble was in tech and internet stocks> S&P 500 was trading at ~30x times earnings in 1999. S&P 500 is not just tech/internet stocks. The point is this market is not overvalued. Here is why the market could go higher: 1. stocks not overvalued.(S&P avg) 2. The avg rate of...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289048825/20/2013 1:29:10 PMrichardredA very simple one- If that happens. Just think of all the US & world industries that will benefit. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289042715/20/2013 9:47:13 AMvaluedudehttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289042655/20/2013 9:43:50 AMvaluedudeAnyone here worried about the price of oil or commodities in general? I have read a lot of bearish reports on oil lately and it could see a sharp decline. I read that there is a lot of oil sitting in tankers in the ocean. Also, if the chinese real estate bubble collapses commodities will get killed. Check out this 60...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289042175/20/2013 9:00:28 AMSpekulatiusTHST - Truett Hurst winery IPO that will come to a market with an auction process (range 8.5$-11.5$ given in prospectus) looks seriously overpriced even after lowering the price target from 15$. Other negatives: -barely breaking even - B shares ensure that current owners stay in control , even if they were to own onl...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289040145/19/2013 11:52:37 PME_K_SThe Value Buy of the Century: Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) . . . or was it? APC for $0.01/share on Friday. NYSE Voids Penny Trades in Anadarko From Last Minute of Trading The New York Stock Exchange broke trades in Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) after the shares briefly plunged 99 percent in the final minute...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289037525/19/2013 7:41:35 PMSpekulatiusIf you think TSLA is worth 50$, while trading at 90$, the obvious play would be to buy a put, imo. At least I have been thinking along those lines. In any case, it's not a discussion for a value thread.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289036965/19/2013 7:05:22 PME_K_SRe: Electric Cars and the Value Proposition I think the value proposition lies in the "Decentralized Grid" where electricity is produced from several sources including solar, natural gas and even hydrogen. The cost of both Solar and NG are low compared to historical levels but the main problem lies in being able to ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289034605/19/2013 4:49:07 PMPaul Senior>Tesla. Already has a market cap greater than that of Fiat. (Fiat EV is twice that of Tesla's though.) >An acquaintance has the performance model. Nice car. When you buy the performance model (top of the line Tesla) your order goes to the head of the wait line, he says. >I am very close to buying an el...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289033435/19/2013 3:19:38 PMMr.GogoGuys, have you thought how the introduction of electric vehicles will affect oil companies. In the last few weeks I have been studying Tesla. The have really made it. The car is fully electric with a range of 500km per one charge. It is based on LiIon batteries. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the future of c...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289033125/19/2013 2:34:36 PME_K_SOmega Protein Corp. (NYSE: OME) - closed out position 40% gain SUPERVALU Inc. (NYSE: SVU) - Closed out my common stock position and booked a 23% gain Copper Mountain Mining Corporation (CPPMF) - upped position by 30% Abraxas Petroleum Corp. (NasdaqCM: AXAS) - Peeled off high priced shares for small loss Penn West Petro...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289031725/19/2013 1:05:23 PMSpekulatiusI looked at RDS in some detail and the problem that I see (and agree with S&P analyst) is the extremely high cost of adding reserves. I know for fact that RDS seems to be doing a lousy job in the Marcellus shale (just by the commentary from UPL's CC) and also their arctic oil venture seems to be along the same lines. ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289028275/19/2013 12:43:57 AMBrian SullivanI prefer RDS.B as the best value play in the multi-national big oils. It also will be a big player in exports of LNG from the USA. Royal Dutch Shell PLC ADR Class B Yield 4.97% TTM P/E 8.5 Forward P/E 8.2 P/B 1.2 P/S 0.5http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289027795/18/2013 10:49:17 PMSpekulatiusI agree with your idea to play for a long real estate recovery - the problem is that there are few values left . REIT's seem expensive and trade mostly above NAV. I did find some opportunities in illiquid stocks, where I was able to put ~12% of my portfolio in. I also buy crummy little banks located in crummy place....http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289024125/18/2013 4:58:12 PMSpekulatiusMy Buys and Sells are mainly focused on the dividend yield. I have been selling if/when the dividend yield falls below 4.5% but now I lowered that to 3.5%. I don't like to value stocks, based on dividend yields. I don't mind a high dividend yield either , if I think the dividend is sustainable. I own TOT to that point...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289024055/18/2013 4:46:32 PMDr_of_Microcaps Sanderson Farms, Inc. to Broadcast Its Second-Quarter 2013 Conference Call Live on the Internet [graphic]Press Release: Sanderson Farms, Inc. – Thu, May 16, 2013 11:30 AM EDT RELATED QUOTES SymbolPriceChangeSAFM64.65-0.06 [graphic] LAUREL, Miss.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Sanderson Farms, Inc. ( SAFM) to...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289017385/18/2013 2:00:19 AMDr_of_Microcaps SIFCO Industries, Inc. Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2013 Financial Results [graphic]Press Release: SIFCO Industries, Inc. – Fri, May 10, 2013 4:38 PM EDT 0 RELATED QUOTES SymbolPriceChangeSIF16.25+0.15 [graphic] CLEVELAND--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- SIFCO Industries, Inc. (NYSE MKT: SIF) today anno...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289017185/18/2013 1:31:19 AMPaul SeniorOT: I'm willing to commit a few dollars to stocks in this market that still look reasonably valued. Maybe they're not value stocks -- perhaps more growth-at-reasonable-price, or maybe just relatively less pricey than other stocks. Small tracking position for me today in British Sky Broadcasting. finance.yahoo.com...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289016825/18/2013 12:19:52 AMPaul SeniorFollowing richardred (his thread) with a tracking buy of IEC. Low p/e (under 8); relatively good roe; profitable 9 of past 10 years; rising stated bv. finance.yahoo.com  ======================================== Fwiw, I'm still also holding dink company IEHC. finance.yahoo.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289016685/18/2013 12:02:50 AMPaul SeniorI continue to add to positions: Today, more IONAF (INA.v) and CENJF. Also YARIY and LNCO. finance.yahoo.com http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289016315/17/2013 11:07:29 PMSpekulatius It's reasonably valued if you believe the forecasts. However, I believe the earnings forecast for 2012 isheavily backloaded and the 2914 forecasts are coming down. Generally speaking, the further out forecasts are, the more optimistic they tend to be and often come down, as time progresses. Yardeni has a very recent ...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289014425/17/2013 8:54:56 PMWoody_NickelsThe FED is not causing this? People are going into stocks, taking on more risk, because the FED has made interest income = 0. Man does not live by Soc. Security alone. When it all comes down, it will be a HUGE tragedy. jmho I am not chasing this market, but making due with the stocks I picked up in late '08 and ea...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289012045/17/2013 6:16:36 PMDennis 3<My equity allocation in my 401k is down to 50%> It sounds like you think the market is overvalued? About a month ago I was thinking a pull back(spring swoon?) would happen so I went 40% into cash. Because I had a outstanding past six months. When I say cash I mean 40% into AAPL. it was selling for about 375B, it h...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=289003975/17/2013 12:53:11 PM