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 Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?



To: Clase Azul who wrote (95854)11/29/2007 2:21:32 PM
From: Archie MeetiesRespond to of 306827
 
Been looking at them for a few months and have stayed away. Foreclosure rates are going down, but the inventory overhang is still going up. A reversal in inventory will be a decent leading indicator. Mid '08 to see some reversal in inventory, meaning they homebuilders might be a buy in q1-q2 '08.



To: Clase Azul who wrote (95854)11/29/2007 2:31:27 PM
From: saveslivesbydayRespond to of 306827
 
"anyone nibbling yet on builders?" Yes - I nibble on puts



To: Clase Azul who wrote (95854)11/29/2007 2:32:08 PM
From: Travis_BickleRespond to of 306827
 
I keep my eye on NVR as a buy near 400 but lately it hasn't been tanking as much as the others.



To: Clase Azul who wrote (95854)11/29/2007 2:36:24 PM
From: Paul KernRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306827
 
anyone nibbling yet on builders? i'm thinking it may be time

Maybe in a couple of years. This mess will along time to play out. There is all that inventory and no demand and no mortgage money and the usual lying scum in the real estate business and the guys who said that its "contained" and ....

PS: The last real estate crash lasted from 1989-1996 unless you were in the New York metro area where is started in October, 1987.



To: Clase Azul who wrote (95854)11/30/2007 8:57:03 AM
From: ChanceIsRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306827
 
>>>anyone nibbling yet on builders? i'm thinking it may be time<<<

I bought a bunch of HOV yesterday sub $7.30 on a purely technical bounce play. I got out of half for about $0.05 - taking large position in penny stocks pays off when they move a nickel.

I put in a sell at $7.40 on the rest last night. Just canceled it. HOV is trading &7.77 in pre. I can guarantee you I will be out by 10:00 AM regardless.

Buying homies here for an investment??? No way. Technical trade, yes.

BTW. I don't mean to sound smart. My IB and insurer shorts may roast me by noon. I sold a lot of hedging puts, but probably not enough. Its good selling options here. Lots of time premium to be harvested.


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