|To: lee klitzke who wrote (14545)||10/4/2000 5:15:09 PM|
|From: lml||Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19011|
|Been in since '90 myself. 2/3 of my ORCL holdings were acquired in '90.|
It appears, IMHO, that the Robbie Stevens analyst is taking a lotta heat. Sounds quite defensive in response to likely disagreements from various corners of the room. Listen in at biz.yahoo.com
This mornings' price was literally a gift to many willing to step up to the plate. I pity not only the dumb asses who succumbed to fear and rush the gates at the open, only to relinquish their shares to the open hands of less gullible traders, but more so of the poor souls who were awaken this morning with a margin call from their broker.
Substantively, if you listen to what this moron has to say, its really nothing new. Someone here please tell me what he says in defense of his downgrade this morning following yesterday's conference that was not available to the market a month ago. Of course the company is undergoing a major product transition; of course the company is undergoing a major corporate restructuring; of course the stock is richly valued; of course the stock has had a tremendous run. But does that merit a downgrade? IMHO, not on its face. When it comes to providing any substance behind the downgrade, this analyst falls flat on his face. The poor guy is either extremely myopic, or more likely, he got the phone call from upstairs to issue negative comments on the stock because the firm's clients had sold or had no position, and now wanted to re-enter the stock but only at bargain prices.
The analyst's longer term comments belie his upfront comments implying that the stock is subject to undue risk and not meritorious of a lofty stock price. The way you make fortunes, not money, investing, is to hold a longer term view of the stock, but a near term eye on execution of corporate objectives. IMHO, ORCL has scored high grades in the execution of its stated objectives over the past year and one-half, which is why the stock until the last 2 days had done so well.
There is no such thing as true "perfection." Who's he kidding? There's no fine line that says this stock is priced to perfection, and this stock is priced just below perfection." There's no defined line; its a gradual spectrum. On a scale from 1 to 100, I would agree that ORCL wouldn't score a perfect 100; I would give a score a least above 90, perhaps a 95. But to say that a stock is priced for perfection, no matter "how you sliced it, how you dice it" is utter bull crap.
Any claim that the company is not performing to perfection does not necessarily lead to a haircut that takes 30% off the top. When one states that a stock is not performing to "perfection," IMHO, there has to be some materiality to the degree to which it fails to meet that standard in order for the stock to take the tumble that ORCL has taken the past two days. Again, referring to the analyst's comments on this call, would you think there is something materially unsatisfactory with how ORCL is performing & altering its core business and entering new high growth business. What I heard was a lame guy talking out of both sides of his mouth, trying to cover his butt because he's obviously taking a lot of heat not only from the firm's clients long this stock, but likely from ORCL management.
In sum, there is inherent risk and inherent IMperfection in ANY stock you purchase NO matter how lofty its price, particularly if it priced "for perfection." No stock is without risk. The question is the magnitude of the downside that the risk presents, not only its likelihood. Perhaps this guys should retake a course in probability & statistics.
So who's is this guy kidding when he says he downgrading because the stock is priced to perfection, and by his assessment ORCL is not performing up to that standard, particularly when the stock closed yesterday off about 25% from its recent highs.
I'd give this guy the benefit of the doubt if he came out with his downgrade when the stock traded north of 90. At least he'd have some cushion given his comments today in defense of his downgrade. But after the stock fell to below 70 yesterday, IMHO, his downgrade, and comments were completely uncalled for.
WHAT a moron!