Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 3:05:55 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803

Thanks for conducting the survey. I don't remember if we are to exclude LEAPS. In other words, are you lumping LEAPS in the category of options to be excluded?

For those who would want to get in a discussion about whether or not we should include LEAPS, I'd like to discourage that. I assume it's more important that this survey be consistent with past surveys in order to make valid conclusions we draw from the data.

--Mike Buckley

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 4:04:38 PM
From: Uncle Frank  Respond to of 54803
Thanks for hosting the Portfolio Parade, Apollo. It's my favorite show of the year <gg>.

qcom 27.1%
qqq 15.0%
sebl 13.6%
ntap 13.1%
csco 10.8%
cree 10.1%
gmst 6.6%
sunw 3.4%
cash 0.3%

Not listening to Aunt Nancy enough.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 5:22:25 PM
From: kumar rangan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
Portfolio Parade :

HWP : 24.28%
CSCO : 13.71
INTC : 11.44
QCOM : 11.00
TXN : 8.59
A : 8.09
MSFT : 4.55
C : 4.09
NTAP : 4.09
GMST : 3.00
ELON : 2.00

Cash : 5.16

Biggest Mistake : Used Margin in early Y2K. Out of it now.

cheers, kumar

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 5:55:14 PM
From: Sunny  Respond to of 54803

My portfolio is:

CREE 13.7%
GMST 11.7%
NTAP 12.2%
QCOM 12.3%
RMBS 2.2%
SDLI 7.3%
SEBL 20.1%
SNDK 2.4%
Cash 18.0

My biggest mistake was essentially a timing error, I sold 70% of my QCOM in early January and reinforced my winners with my QCOM profits in late Feb and early March instead of sitting on the cash. Hopefully, in the long run it will turn out to be just a lost opportunity to buy the shares at a lower level.

Thanks for taking the time to compile the thread surveys again.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 5:58:36 PM
From: BDR  Respond to of 54803
What do you own?

GLW 14%
NT 3%
QCOM 10%
SEBL 15%

Cash* 24%

*Real cash is 10%, other "Apollo Cash Equivalents" 14%

What was your single largest mistake in 2000, and why do you think it was a mistake?

Adding to several of the above positions in Jan-Mar at the same time I was telling myself that these prices were unprecedented. Blind exuberance.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 6:28:10 PM
From: JPitcairn  Respond to of 54803
G&K Thread Personal Portfolio Survey

1) My current portfolio:

GMST 8.1%
CSCO 7.4%
RMBS 6.7%
WIND 6.2%
QCOM 5.9%
JDSU 5.8%
SDLI 5.3%
AHAA 5.2%
AMAT 4.7%
NTAP 4.2%
CASH 40.6%

CASH position is actually mutual funds.

2) My biggest mistake this year was repeatedly trying to "catch a
falling knife" instead of being patient and waiting for solid signs
of recovery before committing capital. My two examples are buying
QCOM at $109 (down from $200) and NTAP at $90 (down from $145).
Patience, while a virtue, has never been my strength.

However, assuming I have found future gorillas and I hold them for at
least 3 years, then there is no "bad" entry point. The following
5 year chart of mature gorillas indicates that any purchase made
during 1996 or 1997 has appreciated significantly.

Of course, maybe I am just searching for some solace in this humbling market.

Thanks for your tremendous effort conducting this survey.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 7:38:33 PM
From: darbyc  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
G&K Thread Personal Portfolio Survey-darbyc

SEBL 21.73
QCOM 17.49
EMC 9.99
BRCD 9.16
INTC 9.09
JDSU 7.72
NTAP 7.67
CSCO 7.11
SUNW 6.27
GMST 3.77

My biggest mistake has been to wait until I'm 36 years old before educating myself on investing.

Thanks to all,

Stan (darbyc)

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 8:13:54 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 54803
Re: Annual Portfolio Survey

Eric L.'s Combined Portfolio November 26, 2000 (Nasdaq = 2904.38)

QCOM = 17.0%
CSCO = 15,9%
JDSU/SDLI = 14.8%
SEBL = 9.6%
_EMC = 8.3%
PMCS = 6.3%
ITWO = 5.7%
NTAP = 5.1%
INTC = 4.4%
GMST = 4.2%
ORCL = 3.6%
JNPR = 3.3%
CASH = 1.9%

My single biggest mistake of 2000?

Breaking my longest standing personal investing rule.

"Rebalance at year end and let no single equity exceed 20% of port after doing so."

I took QCOM down only 25% at year end to 36%.

Waited till March/April to bring it down to 20%.

- Eric -

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 8:22:55 PM
From: BirdDog  Respond to of 54803
Portfolio Survey


Biggest Mistake this year: Failing to do better valuation
DD on companies. The companies I thought were my best
investments, also have been my best stock performers. I
shouldn't be realizing this in a rear view mirror.

BTW: Last portfolio survey was under name of
changes have been made since then.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 9:33:50 PM
From: pompsander  Respond to of 54803
My survey response:

MSFT 20%
INTC 15%
CREE 14%
QCOM 12%
GMST 11%
CSCO 11%
EMC 9%
Miss. the rest

Biggest Mistake: I removed stops on one-half my MSFT last January in the 90 range due to a fear of a quick antitrust settlement and an explosive return to 115 and above. I had promised myself I would leave the stops in place and let the market resolve the sell question for me, but I didn't follow my own advice. Led to a solid year of holding Mr. Softy at...shall we say...depressed levels.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 9:41:50 PM
From: Brian K Crawford  Respond to of 54803
Portfolio Survey

1. Holdings:

QCOM 33%

2. Biggest Mistake:

Wasted some time, energy, and commissions chasing around some kings and princes.

Back on the gorilla track now.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 9:56:12 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54803

Your idea of including each of our mistakes is terrific. I hope it won't be too much trouble for you to eventually summarize those most commonly percieved. Such a summary would would surely be a great source of New Year's Resolutions for all of us to consider.

--Mike Buckley

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 10:07:12 PM
From: H Peterson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54803
G&K Thread Personal Portfolio Survey

What do you own?

SEBL 29.46 %
QCOM 24.68 %
AMCC 11.20 %
BRCD 9.22 %
JNPR 6.45 %
NTAP 6.12 %
CIEN 4.98 %
EMC 4.03 %
EXTR 3.86 %

What was your single largest mistake in 2000, and why do you think it was a mistake?

I have learned a lot since last years Survey I submitted. If you want to go back and look at what I was trying to accomplish, the link is here : Message 13727051 I bought my first share of QCOM on 12/29/99 for $611.20 (pre-split). I continued to buy more shares each week or two. If you go back and look at my last years portfolio I was sending money in to my on-line account weekly to duplicate the 401K I had pulled out of. When QCOM started to drop in the spring, I made the decision to keep buying on the down slope to average down. On 8/28/00 I decide after being 100 % invested in QCOM with 27 shares to sell and diversify into other G&K stocks and some Next Generation stocks. I took a loss of $1886.08 on those 27 shares and bought into other stocks I thought would have a better return than QCOM was going to give me. By the way, those 27 shares have increased 41.4 % since I sold them. I bought back some QCOM shares starting on 9/29/00 and now have 6 shares which have given me a return of 14.7 %. I feel good about having a more diversified portfolio at this time and wish I wouldn't have waited so long to sell my QCOM when it was tanking. I know what I did probably won't sit to good with some of you veteran's that believe you should hold through the dips for the LTB&H results.
Like many of you have said, each one of us has different circumstance that effect our decisions. Mine is I don't have as many years left until retirement to do the very LTB&H that some you have. I guess what I'm trying to figure out in my mind is, should I have been trying to average down on a stock that was in a deep decline or not. Anyway, I'm learning a lot from you veterans and thank all of you for unselfishly sharing of your knowledge.

H Peterson

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 10:52:15 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Respond to of 54803
Portfolio survey...

ADCT <1%
ADI <1%
ALTR <1%
AMAT <1%
ATML <1%
CNXT <1%
GX <1%
MDY 2%
NOK <1%
NT <1%
NUFO <1%
QCOM <1%
RNWK <1%
SSTI <1%
TXN <1%
VRTA <1%
XLNX <1%

CASH 78%
Covered calls sold on all equities.
Biggest mistake: Ever holding off a sell because of worries about the TAX HIT.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 10:53:32 PM
From: Jason W  Respond to of 54803
G&K Thread Personal Portfolio Survey
SNDK 15.3%
GLW 14.0
NTAP 11.5
CASH 11.2
PFE 9.8
WIND 7.1
BRKB 5.3
T 5.2
CMGI 3.9
BP 3.3
RMBS 2.7
KOPN 2.6
LU 2.6
UCL 2.4
DIS 2.1
CMRC 0.7

“What was your single largest mistake in 2000, and why do you think it was a mistake?
Not finding this thread sooner.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/26/2000 11:42:13 PM
From: 99Dan  Respond to of 54803
Portfolio Survey

QCOM 10.2%
CSCO 8.6
INTC 7.9
SEBL 7.9
SUNW 7.8
NTAP 5.7
EMC 3.5
JDSU 2.7
SNDK 2.5
GMST 2.4
SKYW 1.8
WIND 1.7
GE 1.4
CASH 35.5

(cash is 28% M.M. funds and 7.5% in a stock mutual fund)

Biggest mistake was to buy shares of several shiny pebbles during the year without doing enough D.D. Sold them later for a loss. Lessons for me: Stick with the G & K's. Don't believe all the great news releases and message board postings for a stock. Research the fundamentals much deeper if I get the urge to buy.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 12:02:28 AM
From: akoni-1  Respond to of 54803
G&K Thread Portfolio Survey:

Apollo, thank you for sponsoring the survey. As a long-time lurker and new SI member, I appreciate this thread immensely. It has become daily reading for me.

My portfolio:

AC = 7%
AVNX = 6%
BRCM = 5%
CREE = 13%
ELN = 2%
GMST = 2%
IMNX = 2%
NTAP = 10%
QCOM = 13%
Cash = 40%

My biggest mistake in 2000 was paying too much attention to relative valuations (e.g., buy on the dip) as opposed to being more mechanical (e.g., PEG ratio) on when to buy, hold, and trim. The bottom line is that I need to be more disciplined in buying great businesses at "attractive" prices.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 12:11:05 AM
From: tekboy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
Portfolio Survey

Here's the tekboy portfolio as of tonight:

QCOM 28.5%
GMST 15.8%
SEBL 14.5%
JDSU 12.3%
NTAP 11.3%
CREE 9.0%
ITWO 8.4%

Note 1: All positions except ITWO include options (GMST and CREE) or LEAPS (the others) in addition to common. Together all the options and LEAPS amount to about 20% of the portfolio total.

Note 2: Still carrying a rather heavy margin load, lower in absolute terms than in the past but higher in percentage terms.

As for the biggest mistake of the year, as Apollo noted that's a tough call for me, since I have made so many. For example, I was nodding along saying "been there, done that" to many of the answers given so far, especially those of Uncle Frank, JPitcairn, darbyc, compounder, 99DAN, and akoni-1. But if I had to pick one real doozy, I'd say it was loading up on too much margin when the market was too richly valued. This meant that when the downturn came I had to do precisely the opposite of what I wanted to be doing (that is, I had to sell rather than buy as all my stocks became cheaper). Other mistakes perhaps cost me more in dollar terms, but none were as stupid, as obvious, and as avoidable. In the future, given my own particular situation and risk tolerance, I've decided to try to take on some margin when the market is way down and get off it when the market is way up; next time around I hope to be in better synch with the cycle.

One last thought, for some perspective. I started investing seriously in the late summer of 1999, with X dollars. I was lucky enough to stumble into this thread soon afterward, and by mid-fall I was mostly G&K. After lots of begging, ET taught me some basic conservative rules for options trading, which I promptly violated once I started dabbling there around the turn of the year. The combination of an all-tech G&K portfolio, options, and generous use of margin in a bull market pushed my account to 6.5X by late March. The same combination in a bear market cut the account to 1.7X today. For obvious reasons, I prefer to view myself as up 70% over 16 months, which is not all that bad for a technomoron investing newbie. I still retain some of the "champagne wishes and caviar dreams" of the spring, however, and haven't despaired thanks largely to the excellent folk around here who have taught me so much while providing such excellent fellowship in times good and bad.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 12:22:58 AM
From: augustus_mccray  Respond to of 54803
G&K Thread Personal Portfolio Survey

1. My portfolio:

68.0% Cash
10.2% QCOM
8.6% GMST
8.6% JDSU
2.8% CREE
1.8% CMGI

2. My single greatest mistake of 2000:

Not having the maturity as an investor to get out of the CMGI burning house when I knew (and continue to know) very well it was time. The cost has been dear ($55K). What were my errors:

a. I was lazy in my DD (i.e., I piggy-backed the DD of others);

b. I let the glitter of fast money blind me (i.e., I played the momentum game instead of looking for reasoned value investing opportunities); and

c. I dragged others down with me even though I was simultaneously preaching the manual.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 12:39:58 AM
From: DaYooper  Respond to of 54803
qcom = 76 %
csco = 7
intc = 5
ntap = 5
orcl = 4
rnwk = 3

My biggest error was an extremely reckless use of margin, especially considering the historic highs the market was making early in the year. I'll be less greedy in the future. Rory

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 1:18:47 AM
From: tfrugal  Respond to of 54803
It feels funny posting my portfolio: pappy taught me to hide the cards....of coarse he let me wear real cool mirrored sunglasses while playing.
EXDS 25.5%
LSI 22.9%
MFNX 15.1%
RFMD 9.3%
CREE 7.7%
NTAP 7.4%
QCOM 6.3%
SNDK 3.7%
CMRC 1.0%
PUMA 1.0%
SCII .3%

I have been at this for a little better than 3 years: exds/mfnx/lsi show compounding in action. Cost on the QCOM is 62+, everything else is under water. SCII is my little reminder to never buy story stocks..
My worst mistake is generally confusing news articles and such as DD. Specifically buying RFMD thinking that everyone needs amps for cellphones then reading with horror that they sell TDMA amps....after buying some more on margin (only time using margin) at twice the current price. Still paying that margin interest.

Hey Tekboy, where can I sign up for technomoron classes? I've been studying!

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 2:23:39 AM
From: Dr. Id  Respond to of 54803
Id's portfolio...

NTAP 21% (it was A LOT more a few weeks ago!):-O
VTSS 17%
QCOM 15%
RMBS 13%
CSCO 10%
SEBL 8% (leaps)
AOL 5%

Biggest Mistake: OPTIONS!!! Selling puts on ELON, QCOM and GMST when they were considerably higher and having them put to me at high prices. Also, getting into the short term call game has been a bit disastrous the past two months (if I only had predicted that the election wouldn't have ended!DOH!)

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 3:11:38 AM
From: Dibbs  Respond to of 54803
My Portfolio

QCOM 28.4%
ORCL 25.6
NTAP 15.5
SEBL 10.3
SNDK 8.7
GMST 6.0
JDSU 5.5

My single biggest mistake of 2000?

I suppose my biggest mistake was something Sir Plutus has touched on in a recent message. I got over enthusiastic buying when prices where rising (NTAP at 140 and JDSU at 119). I'm trying to solve this by not following through on the second part of the mistake by selling low. I guess we'll see where these are over the next 5 years or so.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 3:35:13 AM
From: J F Allen  Respond to of 54803
Portfolio 11-26-00

INTC 29.5
QCOM 15.5
JDSU 10.0
EMC 8.0
TYC 7.5
CSCO 6.8
TXN 6.4
WIND 3.3
CREE 2.3
CMGI 1.3
Cash 9.4

Biggest Mistake: CMGI
both common sense and GG rules

Again my thanks to all of the thread leaders and participants.

Unsolicited comment, I am retired and supplement my income selling OTM covered calls against my core holdings.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 5:12:04 AM
From: EnricoPalazzo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
Portfolio Survey



The above assumes that 401(k) should be classified as cash. I only wish--the returns would have been far higher... Also assumes that employer stock options should be excluded altogether (not that it matters--they're all underwater)

Biggest Mistake?
Not investing a sufficiently high portion of my income. My goal is to invest from $1000-$2000 per month. I haven't even hit the bottom end of that range. Close second: building up a cruddy credit rating earlier this year, end result being that no brokerage will approve me for LEAPs purchases.

Note: in case 401(k) is to be excluded altogether, here's the port absent the 401(k) stuff:



And yes, I'll be diversifying into RMBS & NTAP next time I put some cash in. Not that the Q has hurt me much--I may be the only guy around who's way up on Q for the year.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 5:45:10 AM
From: NY Stew  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54803
“What do you own?”

33% GMST
05% MVSN
05% RMBS
03% CREE
03% LMGA
02% SNDK

“What was your single largest mistake in 2000, and why do you think it was a mistake?

Still in denial.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 7:31:11 AM
From: Hapiduffer  Respond to of 54803
Personal Portfolio:

QCOM 43%
EMC 12%
MDT 8%
SLR 2%
WMT 1%
LU 1%

Biggest Mistake(s): Not using the "Russian Army" approach to sell the pre-G&K stocks more aggressively.
That cash could have been put to good use a couple month ago, or maybe now.

Thanks Apollo, for compiling the survey.

And Finally:
Another word of thanks to the Uncle Frank, the other thread elders and many posters
who continue to provide an informed and congenial forum for discussion, sharing, and learning.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 8:52:16 AM
From: Yamakita  Respond to of 54803
Here's this lurker's port:

QCOM 24%
EMC 21%
JDSU 12%
GSTRF 2% (in 2003 leaps; started out as 10% . . . ugh)

Biggest mistake: lost a big pile on Softbank International (their arm in China), thinking that Mr. Son would do the same for China as he did for Japan. Never has blind trust been THAT blind . . . .

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 9:02:50 AM
From: Roland Ebringer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
G&K Thread Personal Portfolio survey

Apollo my holding is as follows

QCOM 44%
CSCO 37%
CREE 14%
EMC 3%

My biggest single mistake was bragging to some of my friends
about the share investments I had made and encouraging one of my friends to buy some QCOM in Feb before the techwreck.
I feel bad about this as I had been buying QCOM since the previous May and am still way out in front. Fortunately
she still likes the QCOM story and is hanging in for the
long haul.


I would like to add that I have been a SI follower for about
two years and an avid follower of this thread since its inception. The quality of the comments, analysis and wit is incredible. I have learnt much from all of the contributors and from your generosity in sharing your knowledge. There are many times that I wanted to come out of lurk mode but whenever I felt that I had a contribution to make there were others such as Lindybill or UF who were far more eloquent or pithy than myself. Perhaps one day I may get my chance. If any of you threadmunchers ever plan to visit my hometown of Melbourne AUSTRALIA please let me know. I promise you all a great welcome and I will "throw another shrimp on the barbie"

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 9:08:45 AM
From: LowProle  Respond to of 54803
Personal Portfolio:

QCOM 32%
WIND 22%
CREE 18%
GMST 17%
Cash 4%

Thanks to all on this thread for generously sharing their knowledge, time and efforts. My biggest mistake was not reading TFM and finding this group until late last year. My current biggest mistake may be putting too much of my portfolio in gorilla candidates as opposed to proven gorillas. This comes mostly from thinking I can make up more ground (from not investing enough earlier in my life) if I take more risk.
Hope to have the time and knowledge to contribute more to the group in 2001. Thanks again to Apollo for conducting this survey, and to all of the thread regulars.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 9:09:48 AM
From: Larry Grzemkowski  Respond to of 54803
Well it has been an interesting year. As of 11/27/2000 My G&K holdings are as follows:

My Portfolio

QCOM 19%
QQQ 12

What was my biggest mistake: Not reducing some positions when they become way overvalued.

What I have learned this year is that even though I believe in my holdings I do not feel good about holding full positions when they get so over valued. So that is why I am using AIM to control the risk. Everyone must develop their own risk tolerance and I respect those that have a different one than mine. I know UF I am not a true Gorilla Gamer (which appears to be to holding full positions LTB&H) but that’s OK because I do not have the stomach for watching all those gains go down the drain when it is obvious that they have gotten way beyond their fundamentals.. So I feel I have the best of both worlds and two great threads AIM and G&K Candidates.

Thanks to everyone for the great quality discussions.

Larry G

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 9:48:01 AM
From: Exacctnt  Respond to of 54803
I have been an observer of the thread since the first message was posted. Although technically I am not a pure Gorilla Gamer, since I have diversified holdings in Drugs and Biotech, the LTB&H strategy with Gorilla stocks has been the basis of my core holdings for years.

My portfolio:

MSFT 27%
QCOM 17%
GMST 12%
EMC 6%
MRK 4%
LLY 2%
PHA 2%
Cash (24%)

My single biggest mistake in the past year was my failure to apply the significance of the Fed raising interest rates and contracting the money supply. These two actions by the Fed were truly tech market killers. "Follow the Fed" must be factored in by all investors.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 10:37:29 AM
From: david barr  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
Lurker Portfolio

SNDK 26%
Cree 24%
WIND 23%
MRVC 12%
RMBS 12%

The glisten of shiny pebbles is too much for me to resist. I have decades still to invest so I lean toward a higher risk portfolio. One of the factors that always causes second thoughts when considering an INTC or CSCO purchase is the market cap. Held QCOM and NTAP but sold them because they seemed too richly valued.

My biggest mistake was to extend on margin during the October lows. All those bargains, I just couldn't resist... Had to sell ELON near its lows. Ouch...

Yess, yessss, yesss, we love shiny pebbles....

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 11:23:36 AM
From: mmbw  Respond to of 54803
First Apollo, Thank You for doing the survey. Understanding the positions of each participant is so helpful and informative to those of us that have only just begun our investing. After nearly two years of investing I can say that finding this thread has been the BEST investing experience I could of ever hoped for. Also reading the manual has been an eye opener. The open, honest and polite discussions makes it a pleasure for me to follow this thread even though some of it is way over my head. Because of the high caliber of discussion I still feel a bit inadequate contributing much. Please don't take this as a criticism but as a compliment.
QCOM 18.5%
CREE 14%
WIND 11%
NTAP 10%
EMC 9%
CASH 8.5%
CRA 7%

After giving this much thought I really have made two big mistakes this year and can't make up my mind which was worse. The first was selling sebl several times and making very nice profits only to see it run away from me and having to buy it back recently at a much higher price. But than when I look at my profits I have still done very well.
My second mistake was watching and trading too much during the summer. As a result I burned myself out at the end of August and became too nervous. Realizing this I decided not to adjust my portfolio and just let it run. I joined a gym, started running and swimming and now feel much better. My portfolio is considerable down since August but since I am up nearly 300% since starting two years ago I'm not complaining.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 12:00:40 PM
From: Bruce Brown  Respond to of 54803
G&K November Portfolio Survey

What do you own?

Cash = 10%

Qualcomm = 11.20%
Cisco Systems = 7.76%
i2 Technologies = 7.12%
Juniper Networks = 6.79%
JDS Uniphase/SDLI = 6.71%
EMC = 6.55%
Siebel Systems = 5.51%
Redback Networks = 4.87%
Intel = 4.08%
Brocade Communications = 2.99%
Network Appliance = 2.84%
Broadcom = 2.83%
Extreme Networks = 2.53%

Largest Technology holdings = 71.98%

*Other assets listed below = 18.02%

Bonds, REITs, Funds
Harley Davidson
General Electric
JP Morgan
Charles Schwab
Sycamore Networks
Bea Systems
Sun Microsystems
America Online

I went back to check on my April, 2000 comments for the April G&K Survey:

Message 13492785

At that time, a question was asked which pick we thought would 'double' in the next 12 months. I wrote at that time:

"One pick that I feel has a chance to loop to loop a double over the next 12 months - would come from my candidate list."

My candidate list at that time in April which I was thinking of was:

Candidates of Games - Gemstar, Redback, Foundry, Juniper, Sycamore, Brocade, Cree, Elon, *Aspect, Ariba, Lernout & Hauspie, Copper Mountain, Network Appliance

Although it has only been 7 months out of the 12 - I thought it was worth visiting what those candidates did in that time span. I would still consider a double candidate for the time period between April 25, 2000 to April 25, 2001 to come from one of those 'candidates' - be they royalty or gorilla game candidates.

Ticker 4/25 11/24 Double hit between April and November?

GMST $42.125 $46.375 Yes - September and Oct. - ($84 - 91)
RBAK $67.375 $78.7344 Yes - June/July/Aug/Sept - ($134 - $179)
FDRY $78 $51.516 No - ($135 in July)
JNPR $96.25 $131.75 Yes - Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov ($192 - $244)
SCMR $69.50 $58.575 Yes - July/Aug/Sept ($139 - $172)
BRCD $110.75 $189.4375 Yes - Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov ($222 - $267)
CREE $124.25 $88.50 No - ($173 in June)
ELON $33.9375 $26.375 Yes - May/June ($68 - $77)
ARBA $66.9375 $78.4375 Yes - July/Aug/Sep/Oct/Nov ($134 - $173)
CMTN $80.50 $7.5312 No - ($125 in July)
NTAP $68.75 $63 Yes - Sept/Oct ($137 - $148)

*Aspect = Acquired by i2 Technologies, Inc.

What was your single largest mistake in 2000, and why do you think it was a mistake?

In retrospect it's always easy to identify 'mistakes'. This is especially true in the kind of historic year which we have all been through. I would have to say that such a year pulled this tortoise's attention away from work, family and friends more than any other year has done in the past. That is something that I will be adjusting.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 12:00:42 PM
From: Pawhuska49  Respond to of 54803
Crazy Blanket-Ass Portfolio as of Close November 24

QCOM 14.5
EMC 9.6
NTAP 9.1
SEBL 7.9
CSCO 7.5
JDSU 6.7
CREE 6.6
BRCD 6.4
PMCS 4.7
JNPR 4.2
GMST 3.7
EXTR 3.5
BRCM 3.3
RBAK 2.7
YHOO 1.1
ORCL 1.0
CASH 7.4


NOT listening to tekboy (Post No. 29182 on this thread and subsequently a Cool Post), listening instead to FUD; becoming demoralized, selling INTC to diversify into BRCM, EXTR, JNPR, PMCS, RBAK, with a little YHOO and ORCL just because.

No way I can devote the attention to these seven little new guys -- and the other nine – to have the level of comfort I need. Especially since I know I should have bought some CIEN, SCMR and AMCC, and a little ARBA on the side (and maybe some ITWO since everybody else has some). Not to mention AVNX, which is the next really big sure thing if you want some turbocharged DWDM. And then there's RMBS, well ....

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 1:43:22 PM
From: Bob Bosco  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
G&K Portfolio Survey

QCOM 14.01%
CSCO 12.81%
QQQ 9.73%
INTC 6.80%
NTRS 6.74%
SEBL 4.78%
CREE 3.91%
NTAP 3.82%
SNDK 3.23%
SSTI 1.93%
AFCI 1.63%
EMC 1.37%
Cash/Mutual Funds 19.56%

Biggest Mistake

Not taking some profits in QCOM, NTAP & JDSU when valuation apparently got ahead of the fundamentals. Especially in an environment where the Fed was raising interest rates.

Thanks to the thread for all the knowledge and profits I have gained from reading it over the last 20 months.

Bob Bosco

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 5:31:02 PM
From: tbancroft  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803

This (mostly) lurker's portfolio is:

GMST 90%
Cash 10%

Biggest mistake: irrational exuberance with margin at beginning of year. I initially had been equally invested in QCOM, NTAP and GMST until the maintenance call(s) hit this last spring. Sadder now, but incrementally wiser, I've been working to get rid of margin, and build up some cash that will hopefully let me get re-invested when prices hit a good value point (strange that with the depressingly low -relatively speaking- prices, I haven't really identified any "good value" gorillas; I might also be a little gun shy right now.) I'm also fortunate that I have a reasonably steady income, and am not dependent on my (laughable)investment prowess. Also, I'm still hopeful that GMST's strategies will not further increase my cash percentages. <g>

I remain a true fan of this thread's great spirit; reading the thread has been (and continues to be) an incredible daily experience.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 7:15:55 PM
From: Marq Spencer  Respond to of 54803

Here's stuff from a lurker:

What Do I Own:

EMC 11.2%
MSFT 9.5%
AOL 8.2%
CSCO 8.1%
INTC 6.0%
SCMR 4.2%
MMM 3.9%
JPM 3.7%
LGTO 2.9%
EXDS 2.6%
CAT 2.4%
EK 2.3%
DD 2.1%
AMZN 1.5%
WCOM 1.3%
IFMX 1.1%
LU 0.9%
NCNT 0.8%


CASH 40.9%

My Biggest Mistake
This year I had two - the first was not believing in myself that the valuations were crazy and getting caught up in the hype/craze/bubble. I got into some stocks very late. That really hurt the performance this year.

The second mistake compounded the results of the first - not cutting losses early. This, I believe continues to be my real bugaboo. I know that I hang on to a position too long. The combination of these has led to tremendous paper losses on LU (down 75%), WCOM (down >60%), SCMR, EXDS, IFMX (down >50%) AMZN, and EK (down >40%).

- Marq.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 7:29:00 PM
From: nbfm  Respond to of 54803
What do you own

QCOM 40%
CREE 11%
EMC 3%
MRK 2%
CASH 11%

What was your single largest mistake in 2000, and why do you think it was a mistake?

Watching the market soooooo closely. For a LTB&H'er, there was really no reason to watch it sooooo closely -- and it was extremely detrimental for my mental health. <g> In the end (another 5 years), this year's volatility [gee, was there any volatility this year] will appear as a wavy line on the charts.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 9:36:42 PM
From: Judith Williams  Respond to of 54803
Ten days in Anguilla--with no turkey to baste, no FUD to get exercised about, and blissfully removed from the Dumb and Boring gamesmanship--and it's almost possible to face the G&K survey with equanimity.

What do you own?
jdsu 17%
qcom 6%
sebl 6%
ntap 5%
jnpr 4%
bios 30% (abgx, mlnm, mygn, hgsi, and some babies)
cash 32%

single biggest mistake in 2000
Kind of Apollo to spare us a complete litany, although winnowing is difficult. My biggest missteps were, perhaps, a marginless variant on Tekboy's cool post. I was too quick to buy "on the dip," refusing to believe that ntap could break 80 or jnpr 150 even in a market where "dip" was proving an elastic concept. On the flip side, I was too reluctant to trim an overweighted position (jdsu), thinking I could always sell a little more when it got back to 130. So I still have an overweighted position, just a lot fewer dollars.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 9:54:50 PM
From: gingersreisse  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803

AOL 2%
AMT 2%
WIND <1%
SNDK <1%

Cash about 64% (includes Van Wagoner and Janus Tech and Bio funds, with 35% in non-tech equity funds and some securities from a former employer)

Biggest Mistake: only partially rebalancing at the end of the March quarter. I try to do a modest rebalance quarterly in IRA, 401(k), and taxables.

Since 1980, I've kept a balance of 70% equities and 30% cash, home, and fixed income. The 70% equities have been divided into about 30% tech and 40% non-tech, but I'm not rigid on the mix, which has run to 40/30.

About half the total equity position is LTB&H (average duration 3 years), the other half is trading, on which I write calls if enthusiasm is excessive, or puts if the end of the world is at hand. No individual stock can be more than 8% of investable assets (which sold me out of some BRCD and NTAP) and I have sell triggers under some stocks when they drop to about 3x my purchase price (which sold my GMST trading two weeks ago, about 1/3 of my GMST position).

I may consider letting the equity run to 75/25, and may consider letting the max run to 9%, perhaps with "house money" only.

Although I have volatile stocks in the accounts, I ran the portfolio through and determined the beta is about 0.8.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 10:03:00 PM
From: Willie263  Respond to of 54803
qcom 78.9%
gmst 7.2%
cree 6.8%
jdsu 5.1%
sndk 1.9%

Not listening to Uncle Frank (enough).
Bought gmst & jdsu at the beginning of
the year on MARGIN.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/27/2000 11:00:16 PM
From: pheilman_  Respond to of 54803
Another lurker's portfolio

What do you own?
QCOM 82%
AMAT 5.4%
XLNX 5.7%
DIS 1%
cash 3%

Single biggest mistake:
Belief that success last year predicted future. I got caught up in the excitement on the threads. This meant I also held non-gorillas during their descent.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 7:26:23 AM
From: Todd Bishop  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54803
Thanks again Apollo for orchestrating this survey.

2000 portfolio:

QCOM 22.9%
CSCO 11.9%
GMST 10.5%
RMBS 9.0%
JDSU 8.9%
SEBL 7.8%
ITWO 7.7%
EMC 7.5%
NTAP 7.1%
JNPR 3.0%
PCTL 2.7%
CASH 1.1%

Biggest mistake:

Thanks to the guidance of this thread, I've ignored performance in the short term and have continued to dollar cost average throughout. If I had to pick one, I'd choose the purchase of Juniper because I still waffle on how I'd classify it. They've grabbed a portion of the network equipment market that Cisco never had a stronghold in. That market has been classified as a portion of the router market which is Cisco's bread and butter but it doesn't seem to touch the markets that Cisco has held strong in. Where Cisco has a product that meets the needs, it leads. In the high end service provider market, Cisco has never been very successful and Juniper has swallowed that market whole. They've succeeded because they went after a segment of the router market that Cisco hasn't ever really met the needs of. That segment of the router market seemingly has grown faster than the rest of the overall router market and Juniper is gaining market share as a result.

Many here are aware that this segment of the router market has been more about speed than it has been about quality or functionality or service, etc. Juniper has won over the segment by having all of the above including the required speed. The big question becomes, what happens if Juniper stumbles on speed and is leapfrogged like so many companies before them in this segment? I'm hopeful that the speed is good enough and that the functionality, quality and service will make their product more sticky than previous attempts which have typically missed on one or more of these qualities.

The next question is how do you classify them. Sounds like a hunt report but for the sake of making a point to my rambling, I'm considering whether this segment of the router market is so different from the overall router market that it should be considered a niche. And although I've never heard talk of a king of a niche, a more interesting classification to this thread has been the chimp in a niche market. Does Juniper meet this classification? I've had my doubts but I believe an argument could be made for it. They have an OS which better suits this segment than the IOS that has made Cisco a gorilla in the rest of the router market. They also have several of the people which made Cisco such a success.

I'm off to do some additional dd before I decide whether my mistake will pan.

Todd Bishop

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 7:30:18 AM
From: johnb  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
Another lurkers Portfolio Survey

EMC 18.2
SEBL 15.2
QQQ 11.2
CSCO 8.3
GLW 4.5
JDSU 4.1
SUNW 3.8
NTAP 2.7
NT 1.9
CASH 30.0 (actually 13.0 ROGSX, 8.6 MCOFX AND 8.4 JAOSX)

Largest Mistake Chasing the occasional CREE or ELON that pops into the radar screen.

Biggest Thank You to Mike Buckley for his February posts on margin. I'd had a margin account for a year and never used it but by February I began to think I knew what I was doing. Just as I was beginning to figure how to put it to work Mike made a number of posts that talked me out of it. Best investment advice I ever received. Thanks Mike!!!

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 9:02:49 AM
From: drew_m  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
Another lurkers Portfolio Survey

QCOM 29%
CASH 16% (WOGSX and $)
CREE 14%
GMST 13%

What was your single largest mistake in 2000, and why do you think it was a mistake?

I took control of my investments in December of 1999, so much of what I purchased is way underwater. It felt good and I got a big head in early March..... I learned a lesson that I will not soon forget.

Pride commeth before a fall.

Apollo, that you for taking time to do this. Seems that you have many more posts to tally up this go round. If you need me to judge the intent of some of the ports let me know.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 11:25:14 AM
From: FaultLine  Respond to of 54803
Thanks for your efforts Apollo.

QCOM 37%
CASH 46%

Biggest Mistake: Unskilled use of margin in March and April. Caught a lot of falling knives ("Oh boy, Redback and CommerceOne are really getting cheap! The market can't go much lower). Famous last words...

Biggest Success: Hanging around here gaining confidence and skill almost every day. This is the best and most civil thread that I have seen. Hats off to you King Arthur and your Knights of the Round Table, the aspiring Gorilla Hunter's real "Circle of Competence".


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 11:36:44 AM
From: phil  Respond to of 54803
My portfolio:
gblx .04%
wilif .12%
wgate .24%
sfe .33%
jdsu .33%
amsc .41%
ntap 1%
ms .51%
csco 1%
elon 1.2%
cree 1%
gmst 1%
sebl 2.5%
intl 3%
qualcom 4%

non gorrilas(hd, some biotech etc.. 10%)
cash ,mutual funds ( 70%)

Biggest mistakes: Investing in too many stocks that I do not have the time to follow, and not doing my due diligence. For example the lhsp. If I would have looked into the company and its management, I would not have invested in it , no matter how good their "story" seemed. I also have tried to set more time to reading this thread, which I was only skimming before.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 12:33:24 PM
From: rushnomore  Respond to of 54803
My portfolio as of close of business 11/27/00

QCOM 23.74%
SEBL 20.37%
SNDK 16.86%
MEDX 10.42%
NTAP 9.19%
JDSU 8.54%
CREE 5.17%
WIND 3.23%
speculative stocks 2.31%
Cash 0.15%

My biggest mistake? Well, I wish that I had taken some profits this spring, but how was I to know at that time what the future held. Continuing to hold some speculative stocks may be a mistake, but I still have hopes for one or two of them. Now that I think about it, I suppose that my biggest (investing) mistake may have been not doing enough DD before each buy and sell.

Apollo, if you want to know what speculative stocks I hold, I will tell you in a PM. Just ask.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 1:32:25 PM
From: Pirah Naman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803

QCOM 28%
EMC 27%
WIND 14%
Cash 11%
Other 13%

biggest mistake

Wasted too much time second guessing, and thus delaying actions, instead of simply executing the investing rules I have.

- Pirah

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 2:41:08 PM
From: Marq Spencer  Respond to of 54803

Made a huge mistake in my portfolio that left out
one really large holding (it happens to be in a different

What Do I Own:

CA .... 24.4%
EMC ... 8.4%
MSFT .. 7.1%
AOL ... 6.2%
CSCO .. 6.1%
INTC .. 4.6%
SCMR .. 3.2%
MMM ... 3.0%
JPM ... 2.9%
LGTO .. 2.2%
EXDS .. 2.0%
CAT ... 1.8%
EK .... 1.8%
DD .... 1.6%
AMZN .. 1.1%
WCOM .. 1.0%
IFMX .. 0.8%
LU .... 0.7%
NCNT .. 0.6%


CASH .. 30.9%

- Marq.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 7:12:04 PM
From: marketing1  Respond to of 54803
My portfolio as of 11/28/00


JDSU 17%
MOT 9%
ORCL 3.5%
Cash 70%

Cash disclosure: The above list of equities skews the reality of my portfolio since 70% of my portfolio is in Leaps. 75% of those leaps are QCOM

Biggest mistake: Not only do I not take profits at the top, I also have the bad habit of buying near the top which doesn’t work out so well in a correction of this magnitude.
However, that being said, I am now hoping to take full advantage of the current bear by buying for as long as this continues and my job keeps sending me decent size checks. <VBG>. Thanks to all of you for your much appreciated wisdom. I need to get back to lurking for a while.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 8:41:47 PM
From: Ken Carrillo  Respond to of 54803
G&K Thread Personal Portfolio Survey response

Portfolio as of 11/28/2000

22% QCOM
13% CSCO
12% INTC
11% MSFT
0.5% SFE

Mistake? Not keeping some cash out of the market for buying bargains in case of a tech wreck.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 10:33:42 PM
From: tekboy  Respond to of 54803
Apollo, I realized that there was a slight error in my portfolio survey response. My next post to you contains the revised, corrected version, which is updated to take into account recent events.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 10:34:19 PM
From: tekboy  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 54803

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 10:34:44 PM
From: JRH  Respond to of 54803


(1) Giving LU a second chance. And a third chance. And a fourth chance.
(2) Hitting the cancel button on my Etrade sell order for CSCO @ ~ $80 (to buy myself a car).

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 10:52:39 PM
From: StockHawk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
Portfolio Survey

QCOM 38%

Biggest Mistake: Not selling everything yesterday. I've now made that mistake 247 times this year. Seriously, my port is pretty similar to last year. I got out of a few positions, such as RFMD at relatively good points, but made a big mistake with SEBL. I got out because it looked too high and it has since doubled.


PS. I wonder what the SI record is for the largest number of responses to a post. Apollo could be famous.

PS2. Thanks Apollo, this survey was a great idea, and I'm sure it's lots of work. We owe you. (Not that you should expect to collect, of course. <g>)

PS3. I may not be posting much for a while, I'm off to Europe with the goal of tracking down an infamous opera star in Vienna. I plan to start with a few days in Venice and then sneek up on him slowly. I realize this is dangerous work. Wish me luck.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/28/2000 11:39:02 PM
From: freeus  Respond to of 54803
My Sad and Reduced Portfolio as of now:
40% cash
10% Qcom
20% Rmbs
10% QQQ
9% sndk
3% EMC
5% sunw
Little bit gmst(1%)
Little bit of csco via '02 leaps(3%)

Biggest mistake: Not getting enough out of the market after Qcom went up 156 in one day so that I had enough for life...and enough to not be too concerned about price of stocks I own.
After the market showed obvious signs of collapsing my next mistake was staying in, and trading to try to "get it back".

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/29/2000 12:10:26 AM
From: TheHaj  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
Greetings Apollo,

For your portfolio survey, here goes...

QCOM 17%
T.ITE* 4% (*A Canadian version of CMGI)
NT 3%
TRP 2%
PDG 1%
ALE 1% (Good Beer!)
BNS 1% (Cdn bank stock)
Cash 2%
Mutt Funds 58% (mostly RSP's, our version of 401K)

As you can see, I have a little tweaking to do to get the entire portfolio into G & K's. The market is doing this for me quite well, as these stocks are dwindling faster than the Gorilla/King holdings. GSTRF didn't even rank in % terms, as it has vanished into 0.11% of holdings currently.

My biggest mistake of 2000: Not pulling the "sell" trigger on non-Gorilla stocks earlier in the year when they had performed reasonably well Jan/Feb (and after I KNEW I wanted to streamline the port along hairier lines), but got annihilated in March/April and have never recovered. Many of these you won't see in the above port, as I finally gave up on them and sold for substantial loss to buy NTAP. I actually owned SEBL earlier in the year, but sold in August singing the old song of "pull up the flowers and leave the weeds".

The few non-gorilla stocks I have left are hardly worth selling, as the proceeds plus a buck might get me a cup of coffee. Oh least I avoided the margin trap.

Any future investments will be solidly along gorilla lines. Thanks again to everyone on this thread who has helped me re-jig my thinking over the past year! <large hug>


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/29/2000 5:41:45 AM
From: Pat W.  Respond to of 54803
My shrinking portfolio:

QCOM 38%
ORCL 11%
GLBL 10% (pre-TRFM LT hold)

BIGgest mistake: thinking that in 2000 I could be the same investing genius I was in 1999; notably keeping on buying QCOM all the way to the top, and on the way down every time "it could not go any lower".

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/29/2000 8:08:05 AM
From: incomep  Respond to of 54803
Portfolio Survey

NTAP 58 %
QQQ 11.5
SEBL 4.6
QCOM 4.5
CASH 17.4

Biggest Mistake:
Making a trading position a holding, and make a Gorrila holding position a trading.

To: Apollo who wrote (35281)11/30/2000 12:48:36 PM
From: cybermon  Respond to of 54803
What I own:

QCOM 27%
SUNW 22%
CSCO 19%
SEBL 13%
ORCL 12%
BBY 7%

Note: Best Buy is definitely not a GG holding. I own it for diversification. I did own quite a few other GG stocks until last week when I sold off approx. 1/2 of my portfolio to get off of margin.

My Biggest Mistake in 2000:

Having too much margin in my account. I averaged 40 - 50% margin since early 1999. I finally got discouraged in this seemingly endless and severe bear market and sold enough stocks to get off of margin.


To: Apollo who wrote (35281)12/1/2000 9:03:00 AM
From: chmang  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54803
G&K Thread Personal Portfolio Survey

Hi Apollo, That's what I own:
SEBL 12.4 %
NTAP 10.4 %
QCOM 9 %
ITWO 5.7 %
GMST 4.7 %
JDSU 4.1 %
CREE 3.3 %
BRCM 3 %
RMBS 2.9 %
BRCD 2.7 %
TMWD 2.6 %
RBAK 2.4 %
JNPR 1.9 %
ARBA 1.7 %
SNDK 1.2 %
EXTR 1.1 %
CTXS 1 %
ELON 1 %
OTHERS 28.9 % (cd's, bonds, non tech...)

BIGGEST MISTAKE : Relying on relative valuations . I spent the whole year chasing "bargains" and rushing to buy stocks that had just fallen 15 or 20 % .

Thank you Apollo for this very useful survey!


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