|To: Softechie who wrote (57522)||3/1/2009 12:48:47 PM|
|From: Rande Is||3 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57583|
|Sorry to disappoint you, Softy. But I've been calling stocks downward and warning of the Dow being at the brink of the abyss now for a year or two...can't recall. I have stated many times that I have pulled out of U.S. equities completely, in favor of foreign ETF's, whose holdings have been extremely generous with and consistent with their dividend payouts...providing high ROI and even doubles with regularity...unlike their greedy U.S. issue counterparts. |
So the call is that after all these years of being out of U.S. equities, I am looking to consider being a bull once more. . .provided we drop under Dow 4000...where the downside risk is way more limited. I don't think we can hold 5,600, so I believe we will be seeing a nice long spell at 3700 or so. The problem with this is that I don't see a bounce. I think we essentially flatline between 4000 and 5000 for a good long time....perhaps with a trading range developing. So I am hardly talking about jumping with both feet in order to make a killing. I don't think there will be many doing that. Instead, I think the volume will be so weak that there will be very little movement until the people get their confidence restored once more, through extreme regulation. (See investor confidence history, circa 1932)
I don't know if the decline will last 2 1/2 years as it did back then, but I believe we are only about December of 1929 or perhaps January of 1930. So we have quite some way to go before becoming interested in U.S. equities once more. And that is contingent upon finding corporations that have restored integrity.
Capitalism without integrity permits greed to unravel it. When the little guy loses confidence, the whole system comes to a crashing halt. That's just the way it works.
So I'm sticking to sharp shooting high yield ETFs, especially when they are due for a payout. It is the only relatively safe and predictable game left, in my opinion.
Best wishes. . .