|To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (2899)||6/28/2001 9:02:49 AM|
|From: IngotWeTrust||Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3727|
|Picking up where we left off....I STILL do NOT believe LVLT has the capital, credit lines, cash equivalents, portfolio or contract announcements on the come to survive. There is that better?|
You see, Wayne, credit lines mysteriously have a way of turning from "assets" as long as a company doesn't ever draw on them into large red flags "they had to do what????" type of red investor flags when they DO reach for one and "get into that piggy pile." So THAT postulate by you doesn't hold any weight with me.
Ditto--cash equivalents...I've seen too many C/E turn into pennies on the dollar type actual moola a company in trouble can lay its hands on when it reaches for that "comforting lay aside" pile for a financial rainy day.
Thirdly, companies in trouble invariably do the convertible preferred, reach for the dilutive, offshore "crapital" route and dilute themselves into oblivion when rubber meets the road. I expect this one to go that route as well.
Fourthly, while Scott may look benevolent at this point, he's not going to forever back a losing horse, especially when WALL STREET gets his attention, and it has. The length of his patience will be best measured in hindsight...and that is after this turkey turns into wallpaper.
Now, a word about those "two" supposedly stock price propping announcements:
1) MSFT deal:
I've been around the block a time or two and I'll tell you one thing: the only person this announcement surprised is Sacred Bull slinger on this thread.
These type of announcements are non-events as the market has heartily noted...that is by the big yawn it was greeted with.
These announcements are just Publicity Timed Press Release events:
Analyst know about them
Bondholders know about them
everyone except the deaf dumb and blind momo's knew about the before it was "made public"...
you see in the world of corporate publicitiy, these kinds of things are held in abeyance while stocks are on the banana peel slide scenario...and are released when the hemorrhaging has become severe. It did what a whopping 5/8ths for LVLT's stock price...? AND it couldn't even hold that!!!!!
Then along comes yesterday's little "Guess what else we did announcement"...about "turning on Asia's terabytes"...what a joke.
2) Asia's so damn dead right now that Richard Li's embarrassed as well as daddy Wampoa for being caught overthere with their equity printing presses turned on full blast. Look Wayne, if the USA has caught pneumonia in the fiber optic space, then Asia is experiencing "Terminal Consumption"in the finest Pucinni operatic style. AND, the fat lady has already done 6 death scenes and is on oxygen for at least the next 1.6 years/7+ operatic acts.
And the real kicker that always tickles the hell outta me is this:
LVLT looooooves to trot out that old saw of "connecting 300 cities" in the USA or some such...well, I can string together empty straws like they have empty conduit and I guess claim the same thing. But as far as the actual cities MSFT is currently zinging along 3 outta 10 T's through? Well, how many fingers and toes you got, Wayne?
Betcha have a couple left over after you count what LVLT has actually lit up that ole softy can actually use.
I'm sorry, but any company can look good on "paper" and hell, they might even be able to find some smuck of a junk bond fund mgr who wants their 26% paper. But, IF LVLT survives this managed news, smoke and mirrors cash equivalents, convertible preferred shennigan predicted by me and others to be dead ahead phase PLUS this ANEMIC Asian announcement boondoggle, it will NOT be in the current shape and form, and probably NOT even with existing management brass nameplates in burnished positions still intact.
While your "defense" looks good...on paper, the street is looking at all that "paper" and seeing more what I'm seeing than noodling out what Walter Scott is going to do next and singing your chorus.
Just keep telling yourself that even ole Crowe says BY HIS ACTIONS LAST WEEK: that this LVLT is dead dead dead money for at least 1.6 years. If you can't find more creative ways to either park money for 1.6 years, or god forbid, LOSE money, then you, my man are in desparate need of a more lively National Association of Investment Club Koffee Klatch for either capital appreciation or dividend income ideas.
So, keep a WHOLE drawer full of sharp pencils, Wayne, because LVLT is going to wear them out, one by one, plumb down to nubbin's as you keep re-drawing your cash flow positive projections over and over and over and over and over and over again for the minimal NEXT 1.6 years. MINIMUM!