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To: spitsong who wrote (131037)4/16/2012 2:36:52 PM
From: Cogito1 Recommendation  Respond to of 154132
 
>>So my decision over the next few days, when I expect the current buying opp to improve (sorry, fellow AAPL bulls who are holding more than I right now, but my moves last month have shifted my perspective towards looking at the last few days as a less of a "loss" and more of a "buying opp"), is, do I place a buy order for $569, or hold off and hope that gap at $430 gets filled in the next few months.<<


The stock is now close to a ten percent pullback from its very recent high. I see no reason to believe it's going to drop much farther, especially with an earnings report coming up. You might get your order filled at 569, but unless we see some kind of black swan event, I wouldn't expect to see 430 anytime soon.

As always, I could be wrong. That does happen occasionally.



To: spitsong who wrote (131037)4/16/2012 10:04:18 PM
From: Edward BoghosianRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 154132
 
spitsong:

Not too long ago, I mentioned here about the gap at about 425 during January not being filled and the TA I read says Gaps are eventually filled. This was when Apple was about high 500s or 600, I don't remember. The limited consensus was fat chance that it's going to happen or don't hold your breath. These are not direct quotes but the meaning is the same and it is not necessary or it doesn't follow that Gaps are significant and have to be closed. Well, that may be and we'll see. I hope I'm wrong.

Anyway, as you stated, it will be a tremendous buying opportunity but at what point to buy in? That is the question.



To: spitsong who wrote (131037)4/23/2012 11:16:13 AM
From: spitsongRespond to of 154132
 
Well, I bought my shares back

Followed the gap-related strategy I hinted at last week and put in an order to buy back in at $569. Not sure of the exact price I paid to get back in as this morning's action was (and may still be) pretty wild, though it seems to be recovering at least for the moment.

All shares are in a Roth account for which I get very nice executions but not-very-timely notifications.

Probably not done trading yet, as the July $620 calls I wrote are still open, and I might open some sort of new position since this tank before strong expected earnings seems to be such an ... interesting opportunity.



To: spitsong who wrote (131037)1/29/2013 1:23:21 PM
From: spitsongRespond to of 154132
 
Gap from last January partially filled

From last April:

I see a couple prominent gap-ups that AAPL jumped on its rapid ascent from $365 starting last Thanksgiving:

$428 - $443 in late January
$568 - $575 in mid-March


Looks like we got down to $435 on Friday, about halfway through the gap from a year ago, and of course last year's mid-March gap got filled months ago.

I've noticed in past gap-filling drops that the entirety of the gap doesn't need to be filled, and with the positive action of the past two days, I'm thinking that for all intents and purposes, last January's gap has now been filled.

I bought calls aggressively.


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