Technology Stocks | PANL Universal Display Corp


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To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (1183)12/14/2011 2:00:31 PM
From: A.J. Mullen   of 1926
 
I now have a copy of Pipers note. Also a note from Cowen which is very bullish.

Iyer (the Piper analyst) says he has modelled $44m licensing income from Samsung in 2012, up from $10m in 2011. Now he thinks there could be a 30-50% downside to that figure. He says Piper is now estimating Samsung's OLED growth rate at 70%, year on year. Compounding that figure would suggest the income from Samsung would double from one year to the next, to $20m - a bit more than 50% less than $44m.

I guess the reduction in estimates for Samsung's shipments of tablets and OLEDS are based in worries about the overall world economy. Such pessimism seems reasonable to me, although it wouldn't have come from a visit to Universal Display.

Iyer notes that "though there is optimism around LG AUO and Chimei joing the OLED bandwagon next year. We remain cautious.. given the turmoil in the LCD industry and the lack of profitability." I think the turmoil and lack of profitability of LCDs might work for OLEDS. LCDs can't get cheaper and OLEDS are better. The LCD manufacturers are already losing money. Now they have to face a better product. They 'll have to give up or buy into new technology.

Cowen points out Samsung can't challenge PANL's patents until 2017 at the earliest. They are hopeful that the new host materials might provide a large defensible opportunity, and they are bullish on OLEDS for TVs.

I am pessimistic on the world economy. My position in PANL is hedged with puts on the S&P 500. Piper's target PANL is $36. That's before modelling the reduced growth rate for Samsung OLEDs. I'm sure the target will be reduced soon. If there's a serious worldwide recession, then PANL's earnings will be affected. I'm not holding PANl for their earnings next year. If I were sure PANl's price would drop next year, I'd sell now and buy next year, but I'm not sure PANl's price will drop further.

Neither Piper nor Cowen seem bothered by patent challenges. PANl's largest revenue stream is immune until 2017. A successful challenge would destroy the potential for huge royalty revenue in a few years so they bother me. I'm invested in PANl because I think there is a significant chance of a very high return.

Ashley

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To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (1185)12/14/2011 2:02:47 PM
From: Brasco One   of 1926
 
<!>I'm invested in PANl because I think there is a significant chance of a very high return. <!>

can you please let us know what price you would sell??



we had $50s for a long time, so im assuming thats not good enough. just wondering what the panel bulls think as far as sell exit.

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To: Brasco One who wrote (1186)12/14/2011 2:22:53 PM
From: A.J. Mullen   of 1926
 
A price to sell? No. My price is dynamic, based on ensuring PANL doesn't exceed a given percentage in my portfolio. I sold 10% on November 16th at $53.8. I bought them back at $42.30. I shall sell again if and when PANL gets close to the percentage I regard as a maximum, or when I get information that changes my view of the company's prospects.

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To: Brasco One who wrote (1186)12/14/2011 2:34:51 PM
From: slacker711   of 1926
 
we had $50s for a long time, so im assuming thats not good enough. just wondering what the panel bulls think as far as sell exit.


The 50's more than discount PANL's current addressable market of handsets.


They do not remotely discount success in the television market. So the question of where I will sell depends on the possibility of success in that market. The current news out of Korea indicates that both Samsung and LG plan on investing heavily to ramp up the OLED television market. Success is not assured but it certainly seems that much of the LCD industry is now moving towards OLED investments.


We'll know more after CES and after Samsung announces their 2012 capex budget.


Slacker

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To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (1187)12/14/2011 3:11:59 PM
From: Brasco One   of 1926
 
10%? i have a feeling if you were given $50s again, you would sell all your shares and some.

there is nothing wrong with selling. some people think its a sin.


good luck anyway on the trade.

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To: Brasco One who wrote (1189)12/14/2011 6:47:13 PM
From: A.J. Mullen   of 1926
 
If you give credence to your feeling about my future behavior, you wasted your time and mine in asking me my plans. I have no interest in what you feel I would do. I doubt anyone else cares either.

Selling shares a sin? You have strange ideas about people.

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From: slacker71112/15/2011 10:28:07 AM
   of 1926
 
Notes (not from me) from the Gabelli call yesterday.

wsw.com 


investorvillage.com 

More on the Gabelli Call


1) Reiterated guidance for the upcoming Q, and for next year. The
Piper note this morning had said they were worried about achieving guidance,
so good to see management reiterate there view that they "were very
comfortable with rev guidance"
2) LG- have been renewing license agreements every 6 months, and the
license fee is build into the material sales price. PANL says they are "very
comfortable" with how this looks, but mentioned they are currently in
discussions and they "expect to sign a long term agreement, though not in
the next couple weeks". This seems to be hinting that the current agreement
(which expires at end of the year) will likely just be renewed while they
try and hammer out the long-term contract. But this is the first time they
ever stated that LG will likely sign a long term agreement similar to
Samsung. With these the two main OLED players, I think this is really
important data around their comfort level with the strength of their IP.
Other takeaways:
* 90-95% of OLED market is Samsung. Samsung looked at their IP prior
to signing a 7 year agreement. The agreement includes clause that Samsung
will NOT challenge any of their IP.
* LG has said they will display 55" OLED TVs at CES in Jan
* News source Displaybank has said that both LG and Samsung will
ship OLED TVs in the 2nd half of '12
* When asked about the recent patent concerns, they flagged that
their patents are around Phosphorescent OLEDs, not traditional OLEDs. (this
seems to be direct response to the StreetSweeper article that was rife with
inaccuracies)
* When asked about Sumitomo saying that they are building a factory
for polymer based materials, PANL says they have IP around polymer (not just
small molecule, which Samsung uses) materials and that Sumitomo will be
unable to make phosphorescent polymer materials.
* When asked about stock sales, he said that the bulk of them were
by employees that have been with the company since the beginning, and they
were 10 year options that expired this Fri and were in the money. Most were
part of a 10b plan that was filed in the beginning of the year. Says
everyone is "very committed to the company", and that the insider ownership
still is pretty constant at around 11%.
* When asked about the patent challenge and decisions in EU, said
that "we don't see these decisions affecting our ability to license our
technology". Also noted that all patents remain fully enforceable during
litigation/appeal process, and that these things normally take years.
* When asked about Apple not using OLEDs, they said that the only
supplier who can offer any size is Samsung, and they are competitors.
Directed the analyst to "ask Apple", but speculated that Samsung will keep
the OLED screens for themselves until "they have excess capacity".
* When asked about the cash on the balance sheet, said they would
not do buybacks, but instead they raised the cash as they were looking for
IP acquisitions that would "allow them to capture a bigger share of the OLED
market"; which they would do by enhancing the lifetime of their IP, or by
acquiring additional technologies w/in the OLED stack.
* When asked about OLED TV adoption, said there are some
manufacturing hurdles that need to be solved, but that they are confident
they will occur. Also said that going from a mobile to TV screen in a few
years is unheard of in the display world (said it took 25 years for LCDs to
make this hurdle), so feels like manufacturing progress is actually
incredibly fast right now.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (1191)12/15/2011 10:50:41 AM
From: DaYooper   of 1926
 
Notes appear to confirm fundamentals. Technically, I'm furthest from an expert, but seems this stock should be bouncing back upward. The pig farmer sold half his short position. So I just caught the falling knife at 33.76. Hope I don't shed too much blood. I'd like to hold this at least past CES.

Could all the selling pressure be caused by the "long term" employees finally able to sell their 10 year options?

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To: slacker711 who wrote (1191)12/15/2011 11:39:49 AM
From: A.J. Mullen   of 1926
 
Thanks for the report. Hard questions were asked and direct answers given. Much more informative than many calls with other companies.
Ashley

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To: DaYooper who wrote (1192)12/15/2011 1:14:31 PM
From: Brasco One   of 1926
 
<!>The pig farmer sold half his short position. <!>

thats funny. its not selling, but when you cover, you Buy to cover your sold short shares.

good luck on your trade. seems like your price was not bad. may want to sell if you can make decent profit fast.

good luck.

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