Technology Stocks | Advanced Digital Information Corp. (ADIC)


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To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (1664)8/4/1999 9:20:00 PM
From: Daniel Holt   of 2283
 
When are the earnings being announced-eom

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To: Daniel Holt who wrote (1668)8/4/1999 11:27:00 PM
From: Scott H. Davis   of 2283
 
Last release was 5/16. Qtr ends 6/30 No previous earnings release on YAHOO. Scott

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To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (1669)8/6/1999 6:25:00 PM
From: David Evans   of 2283
 
ADIC files S3

Looks like adic is going to do a secondary offering of 2.5 million shares. They state the usual reasons: debt payback, working capital, potential acquisitions etc, but I'll bet the recent crazy market conditions in adic had a significant role. This looks to be very dilutive, around 27% according to my math. I would guess this caused the drop today, although with the volatility we have seen lately, never can know for sure.

freeedgar.com 

Dave

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To: David Evans who wrote (1670)8/6/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: Scott H. Davis   of 2283
 
If my memory is correct, before I bought in, ADIC did this once before. Took a long time to use the funds, then made a very strategic move, that the market did not understand, and the price dived, before the huge recovery.

Carmine, any recollection here?

Scott

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To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (1671)8/6/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: David Evans   of 2283
 
Scott, I looked back at edgar, it was 2-18-97 that the S3 was filed. They had planned on 1.7 million shares that time, ended up selling 1.5 million. The dilution that time around was quite a bit less however, under 20%. All of this, the split (and recent stock liquidity and volatility issues) and insider selling should make for an interesting conf call...

Dave

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To: David Evans who wrote (1672)8/6/1999 11:01:00 PM
From: James Hutton   of 2283
 
This is very disappointing. First, an announcement of a secondary after the close on a Friday will be perceived as a negative on Monday AM - i.e., the market will not forget over the weekend. Second, the dilution (over 25%) is very high. Third, all of the insider sales now make sense, and the insiders selling out before a secondary, IMO, casts the impression that management has no confidence in the company's future. Fourth, with the market in a funk, stocks are just looking for any reason to go down and here's another one. Thus, I would be surprised if secondary can take place at over 30. It seems as though they could have announced the secondary just after the May earnings (i'm sure this has been in the works for awhile), when optimism was high. I'm tempted to call management a bunch of idiots, but they are the ones with the money in their pocket, and I am holding their paper over the weekend, so I guess I'm the dummy.

Watch stock get absolutely crushed over the next week.

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To: James Hutton who wrote (1673)8/7/1999 12:23:00 AM
From: David Evans   of 2283
 
>>Third, all of the insider sales now make sense, and the insiders selling out before a secondary, IMO, casts the impression that management has no confidence in the company's future

I wouldn't say that it says they have no confidence, as I have listened to the past several conference calls and they certainly seem very upbeat and have pretty impressive projections. Don't forget they are projecting a billion in rev's in under 5 years, and they have only sold a portion of their holdings. The problem I see with this action is a legal one. Given how shareholder lawsuits pop up all the time now, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see one here. I wouldn't imagine a company would just whip up the idea of a secondary offering, they have to have been working on this for at least a month or two (or longer). If this had been a 5 or 10% deal, maybe nothing would happen, but selling out in the face of a 25+% dilution seems to be trading on significant material knowledge. I hope this won't happen, as I have quite a bit of confidence in adic and their potential, and am willing to weather this dilution. (and perhaps my own selfish interests regarding some covered calls ) Perhaps this does show that adic did think the stock was ahead of itself a bit, as they were selling personally, and viewed it as a good time to bring some cash into the company as well.

Dave

(Edit: also interesting how DLJ is the lead underwriter, and yet they don't cover adic, while H&Q does, and they are in the shadow)

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To: David Evans who wrote (1674)8/7/1999 11:35:00 AM
From: IAP   of 2283
 
To look at what might happen to ADIC's share price you can look at other fast growers who recently announced secondaries such as EMLX and HIFN.

EMLX announced their S3 registration on 04/06/99 when the stock was $34 5/8 - next day it closed at $36 1/8 and finally the deal was priced in May at $61. Now EMLX is at $104.

HIFN registered their S3 on 02/17/99 and the stock dropped from $29 to $26. The actual deal was priced at $33 and the stock is now $112.

Institutions have come to embrace secondaries as a way to buy stock in size - the companies just need to have explosive growth like ADIC.

The underwriters for EMLX who helped move the stock from $35 to $60 during the roadshow were Banc Boston, Dain Rauscher, Morgan Keegan and Needham. ADIC's underwriters are DLJ, H & Q, Bear Stearns and Needham. Needham appears on both lists but the other three ADIC underwriters are much more substantial than those used by EMLX.

Everyone should read the S3 - the drop from the high $40's to $36 was just due to H & Q and Needham backing off on the buy side as they were working on the secondary. Agreed, the 25% drop seems like a lot, but now with the secondary news "officially" out, they will all be back in buying.

Plus now you also have DLJ and Bear Stearns joining the party - looks like we will duplicate the EMLX and HIFN stories.

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To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (1671)8/7/1999 11:50:00 AM
From: Carmine Cammarosano   of 2283
 
You are exactly right!...

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To: IAP who wrote (1675)8/7/1999 9:46:00 PM
From: James Hutton   of 2283
 
My recent experience with secondaries is mixed. JAKK did a secondary at about 21, including significant inside sales as part of the secondary. It recently hit 35, but has backed off a bit now. ANAD and TFS announced secondaries with great earnings announcements. Both of them immediately went into the crapper. My guess is that ADIC will get smacked pretty hard Monday AM, and maybe stay down for awhile (depending on the market). What happens further down the road will largely depend on the next earnings; i.e., if the company announces "bad" earnings (anything less than or maybe even equal to "expectations"), when coupled with the secondary and the insider sales, then it will be ugly. If business appears to be on track with no surprises, then I think we will proceed higher.

Good luck.

Jon


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