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To: robert b furman who wrote (891)9/13/2001 11:33:23 PM
From: Sector Investor
   of 6947
 
It's been a while since I posted anywhere, but hey, what the heck. My heart goes out to the families of the victims.

I just posted on the Yahoo! KVHI thread about KVHI possibly benefiting from the $40 Billion terrorist bill that should pass Congress shortly. The United States is DEADLY SERIOUS about this being a WAR on terrorism.

Tactical Navigation in military vehicles is a MUST. The US and probably other western nations as well will have to beef up their military budgets, and TACNAV is included in many NATO forces as standard equipment for some kinds of vehicles. KVHI will benefit from this. They may even have existing order deliveries pushed up. I wish the trigger had been something else other than the horror of this week, but it is not to be.

post.messages.yahoo.com

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To: Sector Investor who wrote (892)9/17/2001 5:50:08 PM
From: Sector Investor
   of 6947
 
From Yahoo!

messages.yahoo.com

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To: Sector Investor who wrote (893)9/18/2001 10:12:52 AM
From: Roy F
   of 6947
 
Hi Sector,

Perhaps even more pertenent to KVH was you next Yahoo! post:

messages.yahoo.com

Regards,

Roy

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To: Roy F who wrote (894)9/18/2001 10:29:52 AM
From: Sector Investor
   of 6947
 
Thanks, Roy. I forgot to cross post that one.

I think that Americans will change their vacation strategies. We had (believe it or not) an October trip planned to Washington DC. Now we will DRIVE east, but maybe see Niagara Falls, Toronto, Gettysburg, and places like that.

I used to enjoy driving trips, but long hours in the car is hard on passengers. I think it will be less so, if TV and Internet are available. We took a nice trip out west one year. I might just repeat that - but first I will buy a 2003 model van with a KVH antenna on it. <g>

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To: Sector Investor who wrote (895)9/18/2001 10:49:05 AM
From: Roy F
   of 6947
 
I agree, Sector, as your Yahoo! post suggested. We we're vacationing in Southern California on Tuesday. Needless to say, the uncertainty of air travel did nothing to relieve the stress associated with the WTC attack.

It will be unlikely that I'll ever get my wife to fly again, in fact, when we finally found out our Thursday morning flight was canceled, we rented a car and drove the 1200 or so miles home. Brutal trip physically, but relatively stress free on a relationship basis.

The internet and television would have greatly enhanced the journey, to say the least. KVH's position has been greatly enhanced by recent developments... now let's get those products out there to give the public the options they need.

Roy

ps: I think they'll work in my new Durango.. sorry, Bob. gg

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To: Roy F who wrote (896)9/18/2001 11:17:00 AM
From: Sector Investor
   of 6947
 
<<we rented a car and drove the 1200 or so miles home. Brutal trip physically, but relatively stress free on a relationship basis.>>

Yes. But you were hurrying home. If that trip had been a leisurely vacation, stopping here and there, it would have been more pleasurable.

When KVH low profile antennas start appearing on vans next year, I think people will find it very appealing. If you had taken that trip NEXT YEAR, you might find your wife sitting in the back instead of next to you - and less eager to spell you at the wheel! <g>

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To: Sector Investor who wrote (897)10/7/2001 12:09:49 PM
From: Sector Investor
   of 6947
 
Recently, on Yahoo! someone asked this question.

<<Not bashing but being realistic. If the government announcing a huge increase in the defense budget doesn't do anything for this stock, what will?>>

I posted this reply.

messages.yahoo.com

Comments?

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To: Sector Investor who wrote (898)10/8/2001 8:40:25 AM
From: Roy F
   of 6947
 
Hi Sector,

I'll take a shot... first, I'll note that there have been no press releases from KVH, other that quarterly reporting and a personnel announcement, since July 18th. Clearly, there may be issues involving national security regarding some products.

Several things could happen at any time.

1) Announcement of the Current Sensor product shipping for revenue and the identity of their partner, who Martin said in the last CC is one of the top three electrical equipment providers in the world. Such an announcement is expected sometime in Q4. GMs for this new product were stated by Martin to be in the 50%-60% range in the last CC, and because all the sales are to one customer they don't have significant advertising/marketing expense, so this will be one of the highest profit products KVH has.


This is the kind of solid business needed in times like these... unspectacular, but solid. Given KVH's conservative nature, I expect this to become a large part of their business. Martin has a history of delivering on his promises in a timely manner, and I expect that will be the case this time. Sales of a new product take time to ramp up, but this is a good place to be, IMO.

2) Announcement that the new optical modulator is available and being tested. This is expected by Q1 2002.

Once again, the schedule announced. Who is the potential customer? ...that is, with whom can we affilliate KVH's future in this venture? KVH always talks with industry when developing a product, so I would certainly expect that to be the case this time. Who it is will likely be as important as the technology.

3) Announcement that the Mobile Broadband product is available. This is also supposed to happen by January. Per the CC, it should be in testing right now.

Defining the product and the market will be important. The initial release will likely be for minivans and SUVs. Child entertainment will be desireable during errands and trips. Road trips may become more prevalent.


4) Announcement that KVH is returning to profitability. This is expected by Q1 2002 or earlier.

No comment needed, although an early arrival of profitability would be a pleasant surprise.

5) Announcement of new significant military contracts. The Digital Battlefield Initiative contract has been awaited for some time now. They were apparently close to getting it, as Rep. Kennedy put out a P/R on it, but for some reason (probably Clinton military cutbacks) KVH hasen't received the contract yet.

The 9/11 tragedy and the increased funding, plus TacNav now being "designed in", plus recognition by the military that GPS can be blocked by an enemy, practically guarantees that KVH will get this contract. Rep. Kennedy's P/R valued the contracts at $95 million. Last year, military was only $12 million or so of their $30 revenue. A major contract like this could significantly change this for 2002. Here was the Rep. Kennedy P/R from 1999.

house.gov

Take your pick. Any one could move the stock, but ALL are expected to occur soon.


I, too, expect the military side of the business to pick up, but I expected that prior to the WTC attack. The military side of the business could take more of KVH's attention than anticipated, but shouldn't significantly delay any of their other initiatives.

My final comment will be a repeat of the first. If you notice, each of your 5 points start with Announcement. The reason the stock price is where it is, IMHO, is, at least partially, that we haven't heard anything from them in an entire quarter. I'm not suggesting that they put out PR just to say 'Hi', but a company that derives its stock price from future prospects, things in development and initiatives that are controlled by their secret partners, leave KVH investors in the dark. In a market like this, it's easy to lose one's patience with a dwindling stock price, regardless of the potential.

I'm not complaining, but lack of communication isn't helping our stock. Too bad there's nothing to say...

Long,

Roy

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To: Roy F who wrote (899)10/8/2001 9:23:52 AM
From: Sector Investor
   of 6947
 
<<If you notice, each of your 5 points start with Announcement. The reason the stock price is where it is, IMHO, is, at least partially, that we haven't heard anything from them in an entire quarter. >>

Exactly. Thanks for the reply.

<<Too bad there's nothing to say...>>

YET.

I'm sure they will have plenty to say before the end of the year. KVHI is priced as if all 5 of those items will never occur. The chance of that is extremely low. Any one moves the stock higher. All five (with as you say large customers) takes us much higher. The stock is priced for failure, but my analysis says they will succeed on at least most of these items - which is why I continue to buy.

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To: Sector Investor who wrote (900)10/9/2001 10:23:36 AM
From: Roy F
   of 6947
 
OT: Taliban claiming air war victory...

Nearly 100 Tomahawk sorties flown, none returned safely to base.

LOL

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