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To: Roy F who wrote (198)7/10/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: Roadkill
   of 6936
 
What are your thoughts on this press release, Roy?

When I first read it this morning, I dismissed it as (1) a rather weak way to support the stock, (2) a way to prepare us for crappy earnings, or (3) both.

Re-reading it this evening -- a little more carefully, I admit -- I saw for the first time the following:

"We believe the result of this positive response may be a ten-fold
increase in TACNAV sales to the U.S. military."

This is a serious statement. The use of "ten-fold", even under the SEC "Safe Harbor" guidelines, indicates dramatic possibilities. The $11 million sold to date has been spread over three years or so. Even spreading the possible $100 million over three years, with existing customer revenues this would create serious top-line growth. Considering that we currently trade at a trailing PSR of about 1, and considering that we would go to a PSR of at least 2 or 3 with any sort of consistent, growing revenue base, this statement implies serious growth in the stock price. It is notable that MKVH didn't say "double" or even "triple", but "ten-fold".

Does anyone out there have any insight into the FOG technology? Does it really add enough to KVH's existing products to stimulate this kind of demand? I'd be interested to hear some thoughts on this.

RK

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To: Roadkill who wrote (199)7/11/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: Roy F
   of 6936
 
RK: Thanks for making me look at the release more closely.

"We believe the result of this positive response may be a ten-fold
increase in TACNAV sales to the U.S. military."

Strong words indeed. KVH has suggested that the company's market would return to more historic growth rates later this year (second half), I believe. 10X seems a bit much, but if the TACNAV becomes the standard for the Coast Guard, could the Navy be far behind?

Even if they only get half of the 10X, there's money to be made.

JMHO,

Roy

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To: Roy F who wrote (195)7/12/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: Roy F
   of 6936
 
RK and thread: Excerpt from PR of 6/29...

KVH expects to release financial results of its 1998 second quarter on July 17. Write-offs related to the restructuring will be reflected in second-quarter results.

I did, however, receive a snail mail from KVH on Saturday that indicates the earnings release will be 7/21.

Seems like a helluva opportunity to get in at the bottom. I'm awaiting a response from the company regarding the press release and the potential 10X growth in TACNAV. Will post when and if I hear...

Any thoughts on an entry point? Before the release, if the TACNAV estimate is repeated in the announcement... or, should one wait till after the earnings and try to catch a dip?

Roy

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To: Roy F who wrote (201)7/12/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Roadkill
   of 6936
 
Thanks for the information, Roy.

Back to your previous post -- when you highlighted the word "may" in the 10x sales quote -- I agree with your analysis. The word "may" obviously is the key to that sentence. Nonetheless, I'm still a little taken aback by that press release. Although KVH has had trouble growing recurring revenues, one thing they do have is some management credibility, as well as a pretty impressive customer list. If I heard that "10x sale" quote from some CEO of a penny stock, I would blow it off. But MKVH has not shown himself to be loose with words or to over-promote. Again, the fact that he chose the term "ten-fold" rather than "substantial" or "double" or even "triple" really strikes me as odd. It's also odd that this crucial piece of info was buried in an otherwise uninspiring press release. Could it be that KVH is within a whisker of landing a huge order and wanted to let those (few) of us who follow the company closely get an early opportunity? I doubt it, but I can wish.

Anyway, back to your most recent post regarding a potential entry point. I already have a bundle with an average cost of 3. I won't buy any more until and unless the price moves through 4 with good volume. That will indicate to me renewed interest by the Street and, likely, the beginning of an upswing. Whether that happens next week or next year, I don't know. With such a thin float, it won't take much to make the price move if the conference call is good. With regard to bottom-fishing, your guess is as good as mine, although we do seem to have pretty firm support at 2 1/8 on the bid. That should translate into a 2 1/2 ask price once the greedy MMs are done with you. If I had money to blow (which I don't!), I might put in a buy order at 2 1/2 and see if anybody bites. Of course, we could always go to zero. That's what I call bottom-fishing! :o(

One final point -- we may still have a chance to load up after the conference call if the news is good. I've noticed that, over the last 6 or 12 months, there is a one-to-two day delay in the trading volume/market price following announcements by KVH. Probably because no one follows the company that closely -- currently only 1 analyst follows it, and probably not that carefully. That's why I'm going to wait until after the CC to consider buying more -- unless, of course, I get a move through 4 on volume beforehand.

Do you think there's any significance to KVH moving up the earnings release date?

It's nice to have someone to chat with here. Let us know what IR tells you about the 10x sales comment.

RK

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To: Roadkill who wrote (199)7/14/1998 9:58:00 AM
From: Dexter Enders
   of 6936
 
I don't have any insight into what KVHI is doing with FOG, but
when I heard about them integrating FOG with their products
the advantage I saw was to reduce interference. The military
is always looking for ways to shield their equipment. I
remember when computers had to have massive amounts of
shielding to protect them from outside interference.

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To: Roadkill who wrote (202)7/14/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: Roy F
   of 6936
 
Response from KVH...


Roy Fortier,

Thank you for your interest in KVH Industries and your question
regarding our recent press release. You inquired specifically about
our statement that TACNAV sales could increase ten-fold.

Our TACNAV systems have the advantage of offering a cost-effective
tactical navigation system with a record of reliability. This
reliability has been amply demonstrated both in the U.S., where we
continue to get new orders to expand the presence of TACNAVs, and
abroad. It is the Army's own experience and satisfaction with the
units that led to the recent expansion into National Guard
installations.

There is a rapidly growing recognition in the military and Congress
that all military fleets that operate off-road, including armored
personnel carriers, Hummers and trucks, need a tactical navigation
system to function effectively. Because TACNAV offers tactical
navigation capabilities at a cost far lower than competing inertial
systems, and since it has a documented record of successful operations
in Army applications, it has gained the attention of various military
departments and congressional representatives who are looking to
upgrade our military but who face Department of Defense budget
constraints. In addition, positive word-of-mouth from those with
TACNAV systems is creating a demand from those who do not have TACNAVs.

As a result, KVH has received strong indications that TACNAV could be
used to upgrade some major fleets in the U.S. military, which has an
estimated potential market overall of some 90,000 vehicles. Discussions
are ongoing regarding future TACNAV orders and we cannot predict at
this time when additional orders may be received. We believe, however,
that a ten-fold increase in our TACNAV sales to the U.S. military from
our current total is possible.

If you have any additional questions about KVH, please feel free to
contact me directly at aandrews@kvh.com or call me at 401-847-3327. I
am always interested in feedback from our investors and appreciate
your communicating with us.

Alice Andrews
Director,Corporate Communications


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To: Roy F who wrote (204)7/14/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: Roadkill
   of 6936
 
Fascinating e-mail. Notice that IR doesn't say "if" they receive more orders, but "when". Are you loading up or are you going to wait to hear the CC after earnings?

RK

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To: Roadkill who wrote (205)7/15/1998 7:57:00 AM
From: Roy F
   of 6936
 
I started pecking away yesterday... Roy

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To: Roadkill who wrote (205)7/15/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: Roy F
   of 6936
 
KVH Launch of TracVision 45 for EuropeExpands Reach of Mobile TV Product Line
July 15, 1998 10:06 AM


MIDDLETOWN, R.I.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 15, 1998--In its latest advance in mobile satellite television systems, KVH Industries, Inc. KVHI has begun shipping TracVision(R) 45 to mariners in European waters to enable broad television reception at sea. KVH developed TracVision 45 in response to demands from its European markets for a system that offers the same television reception capabilities as the company's popular TracVision II for North America.

With TracVision 45, the reception range for broadcasts from the ASTRA and HotBird satellites that service broad areas of Europe is up to 100 miles offshore in most European coastal and inland waterway regions. These areas, particularly Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium and France, are thickly honeycombed with waterways and heavily used by leisure and commercial vessels. The other countries covered by ASTRA and HotBird are the United Kingdom, Denmark, northern Italy, northern Spain, Switzerland and Luxembourg.

"Our growing revenue stream from TracVision II sales clearly indicates that this system is popular with mariners, and we are pleased to be able to meet the demand in Europe for this product," said Martin Kits van Heyningen, president and CEO. "KVH produced more fully stabilized marine antennas in 1997 than any other company in the world, and we anticipate that the broadened TracVision product line will further increase our presence in this growing market."

Like its North American counterpart, TracVision 45 offers consistent satellite tracking in a compact unit that is suitable for boats as small as 35 feet (10 meters). Measuring about 19 inches (49 cm) in diameter, TracVision 45 and TracVision II are the smallest fully stabilized marine television antennas available. Stabilization is critical to maintaining satellite contact in marine applications where the platform often is subjected to continual pitch, roll and yaw. KVH's TracVision products have demonstrated the ability to provide continual reception even in the roughest of seas.

In Europe as elsewhere, television has evolved as a primary and preferred source for news and entertainment. Consequently there is an increasing demand from both leisure and commercial mariners for access to programming while they are offshore. TracVision 45 delivers the range of news, sports, movies and music programming offered through ASTRA and HotBird channels to vessels at anchor or underway with near laser disc-quality video and CD-quality sound. In North America, where KVH's stabilized antennas deliver DIRECTV(R) programming, recent sales of TracVision II have exceeded company expectations. KVH's Tracphone(R) products also provide mariners with voice, fax and data transmission via the Inmarsat satellite network for worldwide use and via the American Mobile Satellite Corporation system for low-cost communications in North America.

"As part of an ongoing commitment to keep our communications products technologically current and competitive, KVH is integrating its fiber optic gyroscopes with TracVision II to exponentially improve stabilizing and pointing capabilities," said Kits van Heyningen. "This research is being supported by a Small Business Innovation Research Phase I grant of nearly $100,000 from the Army to develop antennas for high-bandwidth communications on the move. We believe the resulting antenna system will meet the needs of military and commercial sectors for the precision and minimal drift in satellite contact that is critical for successful high data rate digital communications."

TracVision 45 features a 3-axis digital gyro sensor that accurately measures vessel motion. The proprietary KVH software interfaces with a new pedestal design, moving the antenna to counteract roll, pitch and yaw and maintain satellite contact. A comprehensive network of more than 50 international distributors supports TracVision 45 and other KVH communications products.

KVH Industries utilizes its proprietary fiber optic, autocalibration and sensor technologies to produce navigation and mobile satellite communications systems for commercial, military and marine applications. The company has headquarters in Middletown, RI, (USA) with offices in Illinois, Florida and Denmark.

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To: Roy F who wrote (207)7/17/1998 3:21:00 PM
From: Roy F
   of 6936
 
10K buy at 14:59

quote.com

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