Technology Stocks | PVAT


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To: Carl R. who wrote (207)7/28/2002 11:01:03 PM
From: Neal Guttenberg   of 236
 
Any reason for the recent price action of pvat or do people here feel it is just falling in sympathy with the market?

Neal

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To: Neal Guttenberg who wrote (208)7/29/2002 1:03:23 AM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
PVAT has neatly tracked the Nasdaq for the last 3-4 months, and only moved down faster than the market in the last several days:
quote.yahoo.com 
Most of the fall was on very low volume. My feeling is that, given the low volume, market makers didn't have any compelling reason to price the stock any differently than the overall market, so it moved in sympathy with it. At a couple critical junctures on the way down, PVAT encountered what appeared to be margin-related selling. People on margin will frequently sell non-marginable stocks in their portfolio first because they get 1:1 help on the margin call.

As for the upcoming conference call, my expectation is a very positive message. I think an increase in expectations for the year is possible. The current range is $.18-.22, and at the least I expect the range to be tightened to $.20-22. I actually think they will make $.24, and it appears that Craven likes to beat by $.02, so he may stick to the $.22 for now. FWIW the results for last quarter will be largely irrelevant since Craven refused to give guidance for it. The only question is what he will do with estimates for the full year.

The other thing I'm looking for in this call is for Craven to begin talking about FY03. They should have outstanding growth in FY03, and I am looking for a good jump in the bottom line as well as the top line. It will be interesting to see how high his expectations are.

Carl

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To: Carl R. who wrote (209)7/29/2002 11:16:22 AM
From: Neal Guttenberg   of 236
 
Thanks for the update.

Neal

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To: Neal Guttenberg who wrote (210)7/29/2002 7:46:56 PM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
Paravant moved up nicely today on a new contract win:
biz.yahoo.com 

Carl

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To: Neal Guttenberg who wrote (210)8/2/2002 10:49:45 AM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
A great quarter, a great conference call, and another new contract win announced in the call. This company has some definite momentum.

Great job, PVAT.

Carl

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To: Carl R. who wrote (212)8/2/2002 1:03:08 PM
From: Dale Baker   of 236
 
Agreed, Carl. Can't believe they let us buy more in low 2's not long ago, this company's potential was there for all to see.

I love the way they improved margins and paid down debt with their cash flow.

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (213)8/2/2002 3:01:42 PM
From: Jeff Jordan   of 236
 
I wasn't watching close enough last Wed. but I do remember seeing it around 2.25 was that the low?

Nice 16.5% gain today...volume pretty good, I didn't look at earnings...so I'm wondering if bump will last?

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To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (214)8/2/2002 4:04:39 PM
From: Dale Baker   of 236
 
The low was 2.20 on July 24 and 25. Go read the earnings report and the Yahoo thread with notes from the CC, you will be pleased. One of the few bright spots in a crappy market today.

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To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (214)8/2/2002 10:02:40 PM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
Yes, the bump will last for the following reasons:
1. They have beaten estimates by $.02 each quarter this year. Eventually they will beat for the year, probably coming in within the range $.22-.24.
2. Not only did they beat, they announced the second new contract in a week. They have some real momentum going.
3. With the contracts they have in hand already they will double over the next two years, unless, of course, some don't get funded. One contract alone, FBCB2, will account for over $50 million in sales in FY04, nearly their entire sales for FY02.
4. The only negative is their highly leveraged balance sheet which was nearly devoid of tangible book value just 6 quarters ago, thanks to doing several acquisitions for cash, and borrowing money to do it, plus a stock buyback program. They just put a huge dent in the debt, paying off over 1/4 of it. They will be completely out of debt within two years unless they do more acquisitions.

What's not to like about this company? I should add that management believes in the company, too. They have been buying shares for years, and never selling any.

Carl

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (213)8/2/2002 10:10:14 PM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
Welcome to the PVAT thread, Dale. Even though I have made probably 90% of the posts on it, others ARE welcome here. LOL Actually, I seriously have probably made close to half the posts here over the last couple years. Finally I went over to the dark side (i.e. Yahoo) so as to have someone to talk to. I've been watching your posts on the 50% thread, though, so I knew you found my gem, and you have been quite patient with its odd behavior recently, so you deserve your reward. Since this company's performance is unrelated to the economy, it really made no sense for it to track the Naz since March/April, so I figured it would break out sooner or later.

Carl

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