Technology Stocks | PVAT


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To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (192)4/14/2002 1:35:44 AM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
Updated information on PVAT, including corrections to my previous information on the status of the Israeli contract, and including long range revenue growth forecasts:
messages.yahoo.com 
messages.yahoo.com 

Carl

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To: Neal Guttenberg who wrote (180)5/9/2002 11:55:14 PM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
PVAT posts another solid quarter. This stock continues to perform well in an ugly market.

Carl

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To: TATRADER who wrote (196)5/15/2002 11:09:14 AM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
A comparison of MILT and PVAT:

MILT used to be a huge company back in the 80s, with sales in the $500 million a year range. They also used to be profitable. In the 90's they shrunk by about 90% and lost enough money to wipe out all prior profits and build up a sizeable negative retained earnings. By contrast PVAT was minuscule 10 years ago and has grown considerably during the period, and has consistently been profitable. Both have debt, but PVAT got theirs by acquiring other companies.

They companies do compete some, but aren't usually direct competitors. PVAT competes in a higher price segment with value added features such as micro-miniaturized components. Examples are their specialized flightline computers which they sell to Lockheed and Raytheon, or their battlefield internet computers designed to enhance situational awareness during combat. By contrast MILT competes in more general ruggedized computers, and they are more susceptible to competition from a Dell or IBM product that is somewhat ruggedized. As a result, MILT typically has much narrower margins.

The turnaround at MILT appears to be from cost-controls as opposed to increased sales. Perhaps that is sustainable, perhaps not. Sometimes cutting costs puts companies into a death spiral by decreasing R&D and sales expense, resulting in later decreases in revenues. In any caseI don't feel any compulsion to be in every stock that goes up, and while MILT may go up, I'll skip it. I do know PVAT, and they have the best products, the best margins, a history of growth, a history of profit, a strong cash flow, strong management, and a very reasonable PE.

Carl

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To: Carl R. who wrote (199)5/16/2002 11:39:10 AM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
A comparison of MILT and PVAT: - CORRECTION

I made an error confusing annual sales with quarterly sales and multiplied MILT's old sales by 4. Their peak sales came in 1992 and were $114 million for a year.

Carl

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To: Carl R. who wrote (199)5/16/2002 3:24:46 PM
From: TATRADER   of 236
 
PVAT had a couple of million share volume days to tip us off early of the move....I didn't look too far back,but does MILT have some million share volume days in recent past?

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To: TATRADER who wrote (201)5/18/2002 12:33:44 PM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
MILT has average volume of only 15,000 a day. They did have a 178,000 share day on April 10.
table.finance.yahoo.com 

Carl

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To: Carl R. who wrote (202)5/20/2002 9:42:30 PM
From: David Alan Cook   of 236
 
PVAT Report available. Send email to dcpress@bellsouth.net

My three reasons for buying:

1) Large Backlog of orders

2) Favorable Chart Pattern

3) Revenue and Earnings Growth Outlook

DC
dcpress@bellsouth.net

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To: ST Trader who wrote (183)5/25/2002 2:43:47 PM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
Knowing your trading style, I assume you sold when the surge ended. We seem to be building up for a repeat when it breaks 4. When it breaks 4, will you play it for awhile?

Carl

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To: Carl R. who wrote (204)5/30/2002 12:57:29 PM
From: ST Trader   of 236
 
you know me too well!!<G> I have a buy-stop in around 4.06 I believe!! It should run here pretty soon I hope<G>

Scott

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To: ST Trader who wrote (205)6/3/2002 10:30:53 AM
From: Carl R.   of 236
 
Hard to say, Scott. It may be soon, or it may take awhile. Probably what will precipitate it is if PVAT get the award for the helicopter portion of the battlefield internet. I have no idea when that award it due out, though.

Carl

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