Bruce & Sleeper, some comments on your interesting discussion:
"...Pt and Pd do not appear to have the Central Bank and hedging/forward sales problems that gold has." The nature of the financing, for which the rumoured Swiss bank stash of Russian Pd is collateral, is unknown.
"Demand will always be high- supply rare." How about price? One view is mentioned by Neil Berhmann:
"...a recent Norilsk report contradicts Kotylar and is even more bearish about palladium than some Net Prophet panellists. Global supplies will increase and demand (at present high prices) will fall, so "there is consequently sufficient basis to assume that the price of palladium will fall to $9 per gramme ($280 an ounce)", says the report."
mips1.net 
Major's discussions give perception of equililbrium in PGM markets.- Norilsk's talk is not matched by results. Amplats must be taken seriously, but the time horizon is considerable.
"I'm looking for an equity vehicle to play with- it has to be a Pt/Pd producer.... The SAf miners like Impala and Anglo are hard to buy/sell without getting screwed by your broker. SWC is screwed up. PDL looks like the best bet, if they can get through their debt situation and expansion...."
This is right on. Amplats and Implats will not list in North America, to avoid reporting requirements and regulations. Stillwater appears to be a senior, but is really a mid-tier that acts like a junior. The other NAP shoe (and maybe a sock or two) has yet to drop. So what's an investor to do?
I'd buy shares in a heartbeat in the unlikely new company NapWater, run by Minty, listed in the US and Canada, with PDL's and SWC's current resources. Or less unlikely, in a new PGM-only royalty/fund company (PGMs R Us) trading in the US and Canada, holding equities, NSRs, metals futures and some other derivatives. (Watch the NAV and trade it like BEARX or CEF.)
Ptask |
