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To: Robohogs who wrote (6086)	11/24/2004 2:04:13 AM
From: AJ Berger	of 10345

"this is great news but 80-95% expected" ... but, it did happen at the earliest possible moment at a time where many expected the FDA to delay or water down the approval considering the FDA's own problems of late. The same kind of thing happened to DNA last year; huge float, small short, early approval, and the stock doubled the next morning and never looked back! I think a lot of long term players are interested in this stock for the next 2-3 years as it marches towards $100, and they may not want to risk waiting for lower prices as the positive press about this new drug attracts more and more new longs.

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To: AJ Berger who wrote (6096)	11/24/2004 2:38:26 AM
From: Robohogs	of 10345

I have to admit the press so far has been very good with the exception of a few comments in that one article from medical director of the MS group and the comment on side effects, which by the way are very light. There is also some sniping in a few articles about lack of long term data, but that has to be expected. The product goes out the door next week and they will announce pricing at that point. That is positive news as launch is 1 month early. Additionally, the label looks great, the combo therapy looks very solid, and the research analysts (have seen 6 reports so far) are generally positive although a few are expecting a sell the news reaction. This was the very best outcome that could have happened: immediate approval, immediate launch, favorable comments, great overall data and great combo data. Ireland opens in a few minutes and we shall see. Jon

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To: Robohogs who wrote (6097)	11/24/2004 2:44:46 AM
From: AJ Berger	of 10345

New Reason in Today's NYTimes to Wait before thinking about Selling any ELN stock; "The two companies said they would announce the price in a few days when they are ready to ship the drug. The delayed announcement appears in part to be a way to avoid having discussion of high prices included in news reports about the drug's approval. The companies have indicated Tysabri will be more expensive than the existing drugs, which cost $14,000 to $17,000 a year, and some analysts say the price will be much higher." Most analyst estimates on ELN were based on the therapy costing between $17-20k. It's likly ELN can charge 50% more than that for at least the first 2 years of it's availability, and Insurance companies WILL cover this (as per comments made after today's FDA announcement). After all, it's twice as effective as anything out there, and 25% of the half million MS community reacts poorly to existing medications, and/or avoids much needed therapy altogether. Because Neuro's will have to administer this monthly, they'll be pushing hard to sell it over simply writing 'scripts for the other 5 drugs available.

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