Gold/Mining/Energy | Yogen Fruz IT'S ALIVE, IT'S ALIVE


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To: fruzfreak who wrote (1769)7/30/1999 4:24:00 PM
From: telecomguy   of 2453
 
It's never easy to transform a company from a small little, successful domestic start-up in a niche market to a key player in the frozen dessert category on a global/multinational basis.

I think YF is a long-term play and too many people expected unrealistic short term results. The earnings focus is not healthy at this stage of YF developmemnt and we should all be positively bullish in the long term as long as YF is forging new markets and vertically moving up the ladder to control quality & margins.

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To: telecomguy who wrote (1770)7/30/1999 7:16:00 PM
From: fruzfreak   of 2453
 
Well said. You been on vacation?

My attention (and I hope management's)
is directed to the bottom line. Everyone
knows that earnings will steer the
share price in the long run. Like you,
I'll be patient as long as the
co-chairs seem to be taking the
appropriate steps to bring us
to that promised land (again).

Who among us hasn't made some
mistakes along the way? Some on
this thread have slagged the
Integrated merger, but I don't
see it as our biggest problem.
In fact without it this company
would have lost a ton 'o dough
over the past year.

Biggest problems were:
• weak offshore currencies
• lack of new Master Franchise Agreements
Look at any of the quarterly reports.

While the Integrated merger may not
have been as seamless as some would
have liked, it was a savior.
Serruya knows now whether we
can compete in the supermarkets
and I trust will make the
appropriate decision as to
whether or not to stay in
this competitive field.

Have a long weekend...

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To: fruzfreak who wrote (1771)7/30/1999 10:06:00 PM
From: telecomguy   of 2453
 
No, I forgot my password to Silicon Investor!

But haven't sold a single share despite earnings disappointment.

I like managers that take chances and tries to expand their company, going into new markets, new channels, and establishing a new type of company which YF is.

CEO's that collect fat salaries and undeserved options running into hundred million dollars ........that's what I have problems with.

Serruya's got good chance of pulling this off and while it's easy to be retrospective and blame them for poor results, I believe the big payoffs will come to those who understand the possibilities and stick to their game plan despite naysayers......not to put down people like Stocker who brings good balance to the bulls -- I guess I just haven't seen anything to make me run away. On the contrary, they are surviving the inevitable "curveball" that life throws at people and companies and seem to be surviving.

I am not sure if some of the people understand this but size and critical mass is so very important in the food business and YF simply cannot be solely targeting earnings if they want to become a big player at some point.

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To: telecomguy who wrote (1772)7/31/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: Stocker   of 2453
 
I very much understand what you're saying, but the argument that results "may" come in the future isn't to me a good reason to buy a stock. Hold if I already had some, maybe.....but not buy. For those who don't already own YF, it's better to wait and see if things start to look up and then pick up some shares. I am thinking many others are taking the same wait and see approach. If they are, it will take results to move buyers in off the sidelines and the results might just take some time in coming while management sorts the issues out. Again, for me it's more about opportunity cost - the gains missed in a hot market while waiting for YF to do their thing, which just might never happen at that.

Still waiting on the sidelines for an excuse to buy. Maybe the YF people read this thread and can provide one for me.

China deal does sound interesting. PR - how about some more facts and figures????? Oh, and what about Kmart too???

Good luck to you telecomguy .

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To: telecomguy who wrote (1772)7/31/1999 3:52:00 PM
From: Stocker   of 2453
 
Just received this, part of an email newsletter I get each week. Sort of applies to YF in a "reverse" way. Interesting nonetheless.

By the way, for anyone following small caps, I would highly recommend Perspectives. I am not in any way affiliated with them. The weekly emails are free of charge. Send an email to perspectives@sprint.ca to be added to their mailing list. Happy reading......


Perspectives Weekend Edition - July 30

Commentary
Is the market smarter than the people who run a public company?

A few weeks ago, I bought a position in a "real" company, that is, one that
had revenue and earnings. As always, I bought the stock for no other reason
than I liked what the market activity was telling me. The way it was
trading, I figured the market psychology on this oil service company was
turning and it could head higher.

The next day, by coincidence, a good friend of mine was supposed to meet
with the Chief Operating Officer of this company. So, I asked my friend to
get a synopsis from the COO on what the company was up to, what the outlook
was.

My cocky attitude expected that the report would come back very positive,
with phrases like, "We're turning around and the industry is looking up,
the stock is a great buy", or, "The stock is very cheap at these prices,
there are good things coming." After all, that is what my analysis from the
market was telling me.

My ego was bruised when the report came back much less optimistic.
Basically, the company has been beat up by the weak oil market and is in
rough shape. "We have some projects which could save us, but it is pretty
uncertain right now."

Uh oh.

My first reaction was to hit the eject button and move on, taking a small
loss. However, I returned to look at my trusted stock charts, which have so
often proved valuable in assessing opportunities in stocks. The market
activity told me that the stock was more likely to go up than down, so I
played the probability and hung on.

Guess what? The stock has only moved higher since.

So is the market smarter than the people that run the companies? I am not
sure; who can know more than the COO of a company?

However, just as the head honcho of a speculative Internet deal will
undoubtedly gush about his or her deal, I guess emotion can cloud the
vision of a COO who has been struggling to keep his company alive in a
lousy market. Sometimes it is hard to be optimistic when times are tough.
Some times it is hard to be pessimistic when the market is carrying you
along on euphoria.

Or maybe, the market is wrong. However, the market is the market, so it can
never be wrong.

As Gordon Gecko stated in the classic movie, Wall Street, "Don't get
emotional about stocks, it clouds the judgement. And if you need a friend,
get a dog."

I have a dog, do you?

Enough Said.

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To: Stocker who wrote (1774)7/31/1999 5:14:00 PM
From: Sleeperz   of 2453
 
Has anyone heard of Delicious Alternatives Dessert Inc.
They also sell yogurt. Looks like someone else is eating YFs
dessert.


""DAD manufactures under licence and distributes a prestigious portfolio of licensed brands including Ben & Jerry'sr super premium ice cream and frozen yogurt, Cadbury(TM) brand ice creams, Weight Watchers(TM) ice milks and novelties, Mr. Cookie Face(TM) ice cream sandwiches and Stoney Creekr brand ice creams.""

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To: Stocker who wrote (1773)7/31/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: telecomguy   of 2453
 
I think your next email about whether the market knows better than the CEO about the likely prospects of any given small cap can apply when answering some of the questions you have about YF.

Analyzing a company's fortunes is really difficult -- not the least because of the complexity and the dynamic nature of business. I own my own business and also manage virtually every aspect of my telecom business.......I live & breathe this business and have been for 20 years. Guess what, if somebody also asked me about my prospects for my company couple of years from now, I would be hard pressed to be able to forecast where we will be in that short time horizon. Externally, I have a good understanding of the market, our competitors, technology and internally, I of course know what is our strength, weakness, and capability to a very fine degree. But running this business, I always continually amazed how many times I've made a 180 degree turn or found that certain assumptions I made were completely wrong. On top of that, the external markets are constantly throwing new challenges, opportunities, and knives that cannot be anticipated from a day-to-day point of view........all I know is that as long as I continue to manage this businsess, there will be all kinds of weird and unanticipated opportunities and at the same time, many unforseen mines and danger which cannot be fully understood until it is staring right at me (and even then, sometimes you don't really know what has hit you until it is too late).

That's the nature of business --- especially Small Cap business where you have very little control over many key variables that affect your business.

So, yes, it's a leap of faith but unfortunately I don't have the time to micro-analyze and second guess every development that YF is going through and go in & out of the stock so I just make certain decisions about (1)Mgmt (2)Risk factors (3)Strategy of the company (4)overall market condition and then jump in and wait patiently for my return.

I invest in small caps with the certainty that 3 out of every 4 will probably fail but that 1 which succeeds will generate returns that will more than make up for the losses.

So this may not be suitable for people with short time horizon or momentum investors or day traders and certainly not for faint of heart with money they can't afford to lose but for me, it has generated good returns so far.

I do not think Integrated was a bad move......they got more products and new distribution channels and didn't go bankrupt in the process. The company today has much more broader scope, product line, mgmt depth and size than it was even a few years ago. The key is whether the mgmt will adapt, reformulate and leverage what they have acquired to go after bigger & better things.

It's easy to look back, second-guess, and demand return to short-term profitability but for me, I am looking for quadruple, or even 10 fold return on YF, not 30% return so I have no problem when Serruya takes risky moves because as I've said many times, without risking, you cannot build a world class company.

In the end,it always comes down to your belief in the management and all the other variables can be analyzed retrospectively or on a going forward basis but I feel that you can come up with 10 different scenarios -- none of it with any guarantees.

So, I cannot offer any "proof" or any enlightenment or even an "excuse" for you to buy YF unfortunately but I for one feel that YF is a reasonable bet considering the kind of return I am looking for.



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To: telecomguy who wrote (1776)8/1/1999 12:04:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper   of 2453
 
I recently sold all my shares on a recent up-bump in price. It was a relatively small part of my overall portfolio but it still galls to have lost a buck a share on a company I believed had the right stuff to return to strong profitability.

I did not sell because of the share price drop. When I invest, if the firm's business model appears strong and earnings are also strong, I care little if the share price drops. In fact, those drops are opportunities to pick up more. I did just that with another company I bought at about the same time I got into YF.A. For about six months the shares were 20% below my purchas price. Then they dropped some more--all along my analysis showed strong earnings and a good business model so I bought more. I have been profitably rewarded recently with a good bump up in prices, after almost a year. I believe I will happily hold this company for many years.

I bought YF.A because it was a franchiser. That's were the big bucks were. My error was in not understanding that it is a mixed company--its sales come from franchise fees and groceries. Even if the franchising revenue comes back as the Far East recovers, I do not reckon the previous earnings levels will return. The margins on groceries are just too thin.

I think the reason why the stock price remains low is a) revenues suck (by far the biggest reason for the bear market in this stock) and b) Mr. Market thinks this company is a grocery manufacturer and seller.

Least ways, that was my reasoning for taking losses and re-deploying my money elsewhere.

With all the best wishes,
David Todtman

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To: Sleeperz who wrote (1775)8/1/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: benny cooper   of 2453
 
Have you seen Delicious Alternative Desserts (DADS) results lately. I would hardly say "that they are eating YF's dessert". DADS is primarily a distributor, as a matter of fact they deliver for YF. DADS can't even make a profit, look at thier numbers, YF is making money now and I expect it to continue into the 4th quarter. YF has $40 million cash on hand, DADs is loaded up with debt. YF has a global business, DADS is only in Canada. You see where I'm going with this....I don't mean to slam DADS, but there is no way that anyone who knows the facts, can compare these 2 companies.

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To: benny cooper who wrote (1778)8/1/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: fruzfreak   of 2453
 
Just for the record, Coops,
I'd be real surprised if YF
has more than $20 million
cash left after buying Honey Hill
Farms and EPIE shares etc.

On a completely different note,
I'd like to commend all you
thread participants for making this
an interesting place to visit. Many
companies of much larger size
receive far fewer posts and the
conversation level there never rises
above, "This stock sucks."

Regarding the e-mail parable that
Stocker delivered (#1774), while I'm
not a big fan of charts, the story
about pessimism in tough times and
optimism during good times is instructive.

A browse through this very thread from
July to November 1998 was like watching
the early scenes from the movie Titanic.
You know in hindsight that something was
about to go terribly wrong and you want
to yell out, "No, don't go there!"
The posts were extremely bullish. Then
along came the 'accounting scandal',
a red herring obscuring the real reason
for the share price decline. And finally,
the 2 or 3-month late admission by
management that the bottom line was
being dealt severe body blows by
Asian/Latin American recessions and
of all things butterfat prices.

As it turned out of course, the moment
of ultimate optimism was the ideal time
to sell... when it seemed everything
was going right. Will now be the
ultimate pessimistic bottom point?
Nobody knows. I agree with Stocker
and telecom dude... it's at least worth
a hold and see. As Stocker says, there's
no reason to buy into a turnaround until
a company proves it is one.

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