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To: Clam Clam who wrote ()9/7/1996 9:06:00 AM
From: seth thomas   of 1062
 
I follow this segment closely. Three questions:

did you know that clarify is actually a little older than Vantive? In fact it was a quarter ahead, and now is a quarter behind, so it has slipped two quarters.

On what do you base your statement, "going to beat earnings big time?"

On what do you base your statement, "A little more conservative?" (compared to Vantive).

I agree business is strong in this sector. What do you think about Scopus? What is your background/exposure in this area?

Thanks.

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To: seth thomas who wrote (1)9/7/1996 9:12:00 PM
From: Whoomi Tellalie   of 1062
 
Actually, Steven, my sources also tell me that Clarify is having a pretty good quarter. They seem to be beating out Scopus and Vantive in a number of sales. Wonder how much discounting is going on.

However, I'm not as optimistic in the long term about this stock as I am about Scopus. And (grudgingly) Vantive. A lot of Clarify's future depends on how well they integrate Metropolis into their product line. Anyone who's been in the software business knows how difficult it is to seamlessly integrate two different product lines.
Scopus and Vantive were designed to be "enterprise-wide" from the start.

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To: Whoomi Tellalie who wrote (2)9/8/1996 8:14:00 PM
From: seth thomas   of 1062
 
And of course, my sources who favor Scopus tell me that Scopus is kicking the pants off Vantive and Clarify, and the sources who favor Vantive tell me that are victorious more often than not.

My guess is that everyone is winning some and losing some. I don't think too much excessive discounting is going on - there's some, but it's built into the financial models.

Scopus had a nice move at end of last week. Maybe it will go up some more this week? I think Scopus has the most upside in the stock, simply because it is qualitatively underpriced compared to the other two. If Clarify & Vantive are in low 40's, then Scopus should be low 30's? Yes?

Agree about the product line integration issues.

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To: seth thomas who wrote (1)9/9/1996 12:56:00 AM
From: Clam Clam   of 1062
 
I only mean that Clarify seems to be recognizing their revenue more conservatively than Vantive. Vantive may be a quarter ahead but that is because it recognized revenue on a couple big orders it received in Q2. Clarify deferred recognition on at least one order and disclosed this on their conference call at the end of Q2. Vantive has most likely signed a few more "big" orders than Clarify but CLFY and if it signs up a few $1-2 million orders, it will "beat earnings big time". I'm not saying they are going to do it this quarter, I don't know. But I am saying the demand for such software is very good and the potential is there for them to do what VNTV did this last quarter. I own VNTV stock and I am looking to buy Clarify before they report earnings (in October).

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To: Clam Clam who wrote ()9/9/1996 1:11:00 AM
From: Clam Clam   of 1062
 
Regarding Scopus.
I think Scopus is benefitting from the overall demand but I think they are 3rd best in terms of management. Vantive has started a consulting division to serve as an in-road to customers high level "decision-makers". The numbers speak for themselves, look at SCOP sales growth vs Vantive. SCOP = mid double-digits VNTV = mid triple digits. Its clear who is kicking butt. On the other hand, should VNTV get the premium it currently has (market cap of $700 vs $240)??
I like to buy the leaders and Vantive said on their last conference call that the leaders are distancing themselves from the pack (directly saying that SCOP is not keeping up). I wouldn't pay attention to this as CEO's say that all the time except he gave credit to Clarify as the other leader. Scopus stock is definitely cheap relative to the group and should move up at some point but I like Clarify as a safer, 50% gainer (from $40).

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To: Clam Clam who wrote (4)9/9/1996 10:59:00 AM
From: seth thomas   of 1062
 
Most of the well managed public software companies recognize their revenue pretty conservatively. They use the FASB rules (financial accounting standards board) which is strongly encouraged by the SEC.

There are some pretty specific guidelines as to when to recognize revenue, and most companies don't screw around with this anymore, because the down side is too great.

The top reasons why companies defer revenue recognition is:

1) delivery of an order or services not complete
2) concern about collectability of payment (bad credit, or dispute)
3) sold something not yet able to ship - like new product or version
4) something like annual support, which is recognized ratably over the term of the maintenance agreement, generally 12 months.

In hardware, you have to manufacture the things and ship them. In industrial software, particularly software products such as CLFY, VNTV, etc., where you just have to make a tape and stick it in FedEx, the manufacturing aspect is generally not an issue. It usually comes down to some sort of special item, custom work, professional services not yet delivered, etc. If this were a retail software product, there could be some manufacturing/duplication issues, some holdbacks for retruns/exchanges, and so forth, but not an issue here.

Most likely, Clarify took an order involving lots of consulting, which will get delivered over time, or maybe they also took an order involving some sort of integration of the Metropolis software with theirs, and can't yet deliver.

Usually, when you announce a large deferred order, you are sort of apologizing, but it isn't really a bad thing. I bet every client-server application software company that also provides professional services has a huge backlog - which is in effect, a deferred order.

This AM, I see that VNTV is up about 2, CLFY up 1.5 and Scopus has been moving up steadily. PRobably the RMDY effect from end of last week.

I don't own any CLFY. Have block of SCOP @ 17 and VNTV averaging around $3 (used to work there), also have bought more at various times.

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To: Clam Clam who wrote (5)9/9/1996 11:11:00 AM
From: seth thomas   of 1062
 
Scopus gives Vantive more trouble than does Clarify. Clarify is starting to go after different types of deals - a lot more in the logistics area.

You generally give credit to the people who bother you less.

I personally think the Clarify product is the least best of the three - is much more involved to implement.

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To: seth thomas who wrote (7)9/9/1996 11:28:00 AM
From: Whoomi Tellalie   of 1062
 
Agree with your comments re Clarify implementation. It's a bear. Also agree with the logistics comment. They have functionality there that the others don't (I know of at least one deal where Scopus lost out to Clarify because of Logistics functionality, in spite of offering about 20 "free" consultant-days to customize what they already have). On the other hand, I know Scopus is close to coming out with their logistics module. DOn't know about Vantive--haven't looked in a while.

Re revenue rec: last time I checked, Clarify recognized revenue when the customer actually installed the software (as opposed to when Clarify deposited the check). This creates a revenue "overhang". FASB rules allow you to do this.

Lastly, my target for Scopus remains at $30 by the end of this year. It had better go up--I'm in in a big way at a DCA of $17.50.

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To: Whoomi Tellalie who wrote (8)9/11/1996 3:59:00 AM
From: Edwin Slonim   of 1062
 
The revenue discussion is interesting.

What do you think of ATEA (ASTEA) in the logistics area in particular where they are very strong?

ATEA also has the problem of integrating multiple product lines into one - with their recent acquisitions.

Edwin

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To: Edwin Slonim who wrote (9)9/12/1996 11:24:00 AM
From: Whoomi Tellalie   of 1062
 
My ATEA thoughts are in the ATEA thread, posted a couple of months ago. I don't like ATEA.

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