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 Technology Stocks | Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?


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To: chojiro who wrote (6389)10/1/2002 11:53:55 AM
From: alburk   of 6974
 
Because you get the business for free. And because SEBL has a future.

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To: alburk who wrote (6391)10/1/2002 12:11:37 PM
From: ynot   of 6974
 
sebl may go up, after a hefty reverse split, imho
by the way
the 'bear' has nothing to do with sebl 'poor' performance
that honour is reserved for...
sebl
regards,
ynot :)

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To: ynot who wrote (6392)10/1/2002 12:16:49 PM
From: alburk   of 6974
 
<<the 'bear' has nothing to do with sebl 'poor' performance
that honour is reserved for...>>

The first part of you sentence is ridiculous but the second part is underappreciated by SEBL bulls.

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To: alburk who wrote (6393)10/1/2002 12:32:22 PM
From: ynot   of 6974
 
SI put this message directly into my TRASH folder...
lol...
regards,
ynot :)

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To: alburk who wrote (6391)10/1/2002 3:03:05 PM
From: puborectalis   of 6974
 
Can PeopleSoft Derail Siebel?
Tue Oct 1, 1:27 PM ET
Erika Morphy, www.CRMDaily.com

Can PeopleSoft ( Nasdaq: PSFT - news) overtake Siebel ( Nasdaq: SEBL - news) in the CRM market? It is an interesting question -- one that might seem like the wrong question to those waiting to see whether SAP ( NYSE: SAP - news) is developing enough muscle to knock Siebel off its throne.



• Look Who's Buying CRM
• Keys to the CRM Kingdom
• CRM's Next Metamorphosis



It is true that PeopleSoft has been quietly positioning itself to dominate a unique market space, Forrester Research analyst Bruce Temkin told CRMDaily.com. "Can PeopleSoft cut into Siebel's dominance? The answer is absolutely yes," he said.

To be sure, PeopleSoft has infused new energy, not to mention money, into its CRM division over the last two years. Brad Wilson, PeopleSoft's vice president of marketing and recent E.piphany ( Nasdaq: EPNY - news) veteran, told CRMDaily that the ERP (enterprise resource planning) vendor has been investing heavily "in the platform, in the overall architecture of the underlying application suite, in the actual CRM applications and in the people."

In fact, Wilson said, PeopleSoft just poached four new staff members from E.piphany and Oracle ( Nasdaq: ORCL - news).

Siebel Still Dominates

Even so, dislodging Siebel will not be easy for any vendor. For all the troubles besetting the company -- and there are many these days: plunging profits, layoffs, an eroding customer base, a recent research report that showed many Siebel customers are unhappy with their application, and a number of other vendors nipping at its heels, to name just a few -- Siebel's early grab for market share, rich feature set and aggressive vertical strategy still leave it firmly lodged in the number one position.

"Last year, Siebel reported US$2.2 billion in revenues," AMR Research analyst Kevin Scott told CRMDaily. "The vendor that came closest to touching that was SAP (NYSE: SAP), whose CRM revenues we estimated to be just under $1 billion. That is a hard gap to make up."

In certain areas, it is unlikely that PeopleSoft -- or SAP, for that matter -- will overtake Siebel. PeopleSoft's industry-specific apps (basically, templates that keep the horizontal code intact, according to a Forrester report) do not stand a chance against Siebel's detailed vertical apps -- except perhaps in e-government, an area in which PeopleSoft has a very large installed base already.

Where PeopleSoft Excels

In other areas, PeopleSoft makes a good case as an alternative, though. Its sales force automation (SFA) module easily goes head to head with Siebel, Scott said, "because that is where PeopleSoft grew up."

Or, consider its contact center application. Until recently, Siebel was unsurpassed in its ability to handle large-scale call centers, Temkin said. "PeopleSoft will make inroads there, especially with its new release and the release planned for later this year."

There are other functions that PeopleSoft handles well, Temkin added, including campaign management. However, "people are spending a lot of money in the call center space right now, and Siebel has dominated this space for the most part. So the call center is an important competitive ground."

Trying To Be Friendly

Then there is CEO Craig Conway's focus on making PeopleSoft CRM much more user-friendly. Reportedly, CRM 8.8, scheduled for release in the fourth quarter of 2002, dramatically improves the user interface. In general, CRM applications are not user-friendly, and Siebel is no exception. To be fair, Siebel addressed this issue in its 7.5 release by linking together once-disparate functions, Siebel vice president and general manager Kevin Nix told CRMDaily.

For example, the sales forecasting process was once a series of separate steps that a user had to know how to knit together, he said.

But 8.8 is looking pretty competitive as far as user-friendly interfaces go, Temkin noted. "According to Conway, users will be able to create a new customer record with just three mouse clicks" compared with seven or more in other applications.

Back-Office Integration

PeopleSoft's biggest advantage is its integration into back-office processes. "PeopleSoft CRM is a better fit for situations where the information that resides in back-office systems is critical to a customer service operation," Scott said.

This argument resonates especially well with PeopleSoft's installed base, which the vendor has been aggressively mining. Last quarter, the company said it added 75 new CRM customers –- half of which came from existing clients, including such companies as Manugistics, Sybase, Crestone International and Norstan.

"There is a growing compelling argument that the cost of ownership for a CRM application can be dramatically lower if a company stays with the same vendor that supplied its back-office system," Temkin said. In fact, this is the main reason why SAP poses a bigger competitive threat than PeopleSoft, he added.

Trend Toward Small Projects

Then there is the fact that the other half of PeopleSoft's new client wins did not use any of its other applications.

The trend in CRM these days is toward smaller projects with near-term results, which is not where Siebel excels, Wilson said. "But they still want to select a vendor with enterprise vision."

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To: alburk who wrote (6391)10/1/2002 3:29:46 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor   of 6974
 
I know the employees think siebel is going to collapse in a few months. Just a real disaster scenario but pretty typical in software... psft was like that in 98 timeframe.

So I don't see how sentiment can get any worse than it currently is.
Lizzie

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (6396)10/1/2002 4:43:51 PM
From: chaz   of 6974
 
Lizzie...

I'm sure there are many here who would like you to say more about this. When did you begin hearing that employees expect the company to collapse, what are the reasons given, has the company offered itself for sale...

chaz

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To: chaz who wrote (6397)10/1/2002 4:54:42 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor   of 6974
 
3 mos ago chaz... its nothing new. All software the same, no capex, everybody hurting. Don't believe the articles posted here about psft or orcl "taking" sebl's share. The only way they get CRM business is to give it away... this does have an effect on sebl of course but those guys would rather have money too.

Software is better than servers like Sunw or HPQ sells but still in the middle of this capex catastrophe.

All I was trying to convey in my post is the sentiment is so low now its hard to believe it could be worse. Never say never, I guess!
L

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (6396)10/1/2002 8:48:20 PM
From: rkral   of 6974
 
"I know the employees think siebel is going to collapse in a few months."

Is that documented somewhere? Or do you personally know some Siebel employees who have made that known to you?

Ron

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To: rkral who wrote (6399)10/1/2002 9:48:41 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor   of 6974
 
Is that documented somewhere? Or do you personally know some Siebel employees who have made that known to you?


Oh... no ... sorry- I looked at the tone of my post again and I should have stated it differently.

I know people at Siebel, maybe 5-10 total. The highest level is director in one of the engineering depts so these are just workers, not management. They are all unhappy... as has been said on this thread before sebl is not the best atmosphere even when times are good... but anyway people are unhappy and feel the industry and siebel is imploding. The industry woes are documented, the problem with sebl in particular is all the layoffs are adding to the mess.... large reorgs and all that.

This is not new, a few mos old.

BTW wrt the departure of the sales VP, what I heard was (paraphrasing from memory)... the "sales VP" job at sebl is somewhat of a paper tiger. The regional DMs (the guys that actually get the commission) have all the power. Right now Tom and upper mgmt are riding all the sales heads and leaving this sales VP guy out of the loop... some feel he would have been out of a job soon anyway... so he bailed for SAP. They are happy to get him if only for his contacts and knowledge of sebl weaknesses. The stock dropped a point on this news, seems like an overreation based on what I hear.

So thats it, just trying to clarify... doom and gloom and no end in sight. Having said that, buying in times like these companies with strong management has worked out well for me in the past.

Hey- the Sun thread has deteriorated into politics. Can't we get an options expensing debate going on over there... :-)

Lizzie

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