Technology Stocks | Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?


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To: IceMan who wrote (1726)6/17/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe   of 6974
 
>> There aren't any fast growing software companies that don't write these kind of contigencies into contracts!

What's the point of this statement? What kind of contingency are you talking about. I assume you mean writing contingencies into contracts at the prospects insistence not the vendor's but I still don't get the point.

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (1724)6/17/1998 5:17:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe   of 6974
 
Michelle, I totally agree with you about the difficulty in recruiting in the Bay Area. But here's a question.....do you know how many people have actually left sebl from engineering? It seems to me that this whole discussion started because of some statement Farber made about people leaving based on the fact that he met one.

With respect to losing high level individuals from other areas that's just a fact of life in a merger. You don't need two VP's of everything and unless you can offer these people something comparable with a comparable title/compensation they're going to leave. There is a tremendous amount of redundancy created in any merger so some of this turnover is in the best interests of the company, IMHO.

If the technical staff is bailing then that's another issue completely. Maybe someone out there has some info they can share with respect to this. I just hate to see conclusions reached based on comments from one individual who has an axe to grind anyway.
Melissa
P.S. Though it's breaking my heart, you can have Shege. But don't trust him. I think he has many others out there.:-) You're probably not the only one he's secretly meting with. Maybe we can start a thread called Shege's Fan Club and get all the others to join in. ( I would have said all the other women but I didn't want to exclude Steve Farber since you know they've dated also. ) What do you think??

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To: seth thomas who wrote (1714)6/17/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe   of 6974
 
>> For a 25 year DEC employee, that would be true. But, first of all, there are no 25 year SCOP or SEBL employees. there's not that much ingrained.

I'm surprised you would make a statement like this. It doesn't take all that long to adapt to a new culture/company. And these companies have been around long enough for many things to have become ingrained by now.

>> People left at all levels. It's very hard to find talent in the Valley - it's not good at all if people leave.

Every company has turnover. Is sebl's turnover higher than other comparable companies, higher than before the merger,etc.? How much of this turnover was voluntary vs. involuntary. There had to be some amount of layoffs due to the redundancy created by the merger. All turnover is not bad and I'm sure you know that given your experience. Often times a position is critical but having the wrong person in it can do more harm than not having anyone at all. There are many reasons why the person can be the wrong person for the position but in a merger one of the key issues, particularly at high levels, is the ability/willingness to embrace the new company/culture.

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To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1729)6/17/1998 7:42:00 PM
From: IceMan   of 6974
 
What's the point...

The point is that fast growing software companies are often aggressive, even too aggressive with accounting practices when they are young and have enormous pressure to exceed quarterly estimates. In being aggressive, they might write contracts with more delivery contingencies in them. If they should miss those deliverables, then booked revenue can disappear, forcing re-statment of earnings. Ever heard of MediaVision, Informix, ...?

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To: mike jolley who wrote (1727)6/17/1998 8:02:00 PM
From: Reginald Middleton   of 6974
 
Sal works for a buyside investment firm now as a sumemr intern. He seems to be learning a lot there and is probably too busy to post to SI.

For those of you that may be interested, there is a market value analysis of several market sectors at rcmfinancial.com  . There are individual companies' analysis to the right and sector analysis toward the top. These studies compare the market value of sectors and companies to the popular measures that are conventionally used to value them. Contrary to popular belief, earnings are one of the worst proxies for market value. I am interested in discussing this topic with anybody who is interested.

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To: Ed Schultz who wrote (1723)6/17/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: seth thomas   of 6974
 
The customer database? Give me a break. First of all, they have maybe 300 or 400 customers. Most of those are listed in publicly available documents, like sales brochures, press releases, SEC filings, etc. You could probably come up with 90% of the customers with 3 hours of research, and another 9% by hiring one sales admin.
Once you have the company names, you hire a telemarketing firm at $12/hour to get the contact name.

Total cost to acquire so-called customer database - maybe $10,000? And then, what do you do with this list? They already have an implemented solution that cost them hundreds of thousands, maybe millions. You're not selling mail order clothing here. If the SCOP customer was unhappy, they know where to call.

I don't know what kind of company you worked for, but it's hard to believe a 200 person company could chop all management and 50% of the rest in a merger and still function. It must have been a pretty poorly run company. most of the high end software companies are not run like that. They would really hurt if 10% of the company left one day.

>> A few key engineers
Why on earth would you spend $400MM to get "a few key engineers"? you could give each of the few, say 5, a $500K signing bonus and another $500,000 when the job is done, and they have transferred their knowledge. Total cost $5,010,000.

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To: IceMan who wrote (1732)6/17/1998 8:29:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe   of 6974
 
Ice Man, If the contract has contingencies, the revenue shouldn't be booked so there shouldn't be any booked revenue to disappear. The only revenue that should disappear would be deferred revenue which hasn't been booked in the first place.

The kind of contingency you are talking about typically occurs when a company wants to license a new product/new release which isn't yet available. If the product is deliverable the contingency isn't an issue.

The only positive out of a contingent contract is that you take one prospect off the street. Maybe you get some cash up front. But no revenue booked. Obviously unless there is also some part of the agreement which is bookable. But I don't think very likely in this type of scenario. BTW, I am very familiar w/ifmx and it's not the same type of situation.
Melissa

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To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1730)6/17/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor   of 6974
 
Melissa, yes you are correct I don't actually know how many people from Scopus left. My entire source of information there was a recruiter I was working with 2 mos ago in Pleasanton, she recruits for Peoplesoft. She said she had placed 2 Scopus people at Psft, and that she had plenty of resumes from Scopus. I personally saw 4 Scopus engineering resumes. I assumed the turnover was because the Scopus people were immediately vested at the buyout, but I dont know that for sure.

Also Siebel has hired a few engr people from Orcl who worked under Mark Barrenchia?? (something) and since he came from Scopus there is a common architecture base. So Siebel may feel they can do without the Scopus people should they choose to leave.

I would like to know if the Scopus people were immediately vested, that would make a difference (I have an ex-friend who was a VP of a company that was bought it seems immediate vesting is common).

Michelle

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (1736)6/17/1998 11:06:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe   of 6974
 
Michelle, With respect to being immediately vested....I think this was discussed on one of these threads a while ago. If I'm not mistaken I believe the conclusion was that immediate vesting is more likely a possible scenario when the company being acquired isn't public. So, though I don't know for certain, I doubt that the scop employees were immediately vested.
Melissa

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To: Reginald Middleton who wrote (1733)6/17/1998 11:28:00 PM
From: mike jolley   of 6974
 
Reginald,

>Sal works for a buyside investment firm now as a sumemr intern. He >seems to be learning a lot there and is probably too busy to post to >SI.

Cool. I hope Sal has a hell of a summer. Do you have his current email address? If he doesn't want it passed around, let him know Jolley said to say hello. Thanks. Mike

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