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To: Davy Crockett who wrote (47850)5/1/2012 10:39:05 PM
From: Johnny Canuck   of 49914
 
Profitable Ideas Each Market Day

LAST UPDATE:05/01/12 04:43 PM ET Small caps provided another chunk of downside on Tuesday, with the Russell-2000 getting crushed in the afternoon and closing in the red. Unfortunately, this reversal flashes a major warning signal because it's taken place at the same price level as the February high. If you look at the daily chart, you'll see this raises the odds for a head and shoulders topping pattern, with support near 790.

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47851)5/1/2012 10:46:19 PM
From: Johnny Canuck   of 49914
 
ntel exec says fabless model 'collapsing' Rick Merritt 4/24/2012 1:10 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO – It’s the beginning of the end for the fabless model according to Mark Bohr, the man I think of as Mr. Process Technology at Intel.

Bohr claims TSMC’s recent announcement it will serve just one flavor of 20 nm process technology is an admission of failure. The Taiwan fab giant apparently cannot make at its next major node the kind of 3-D transistors needed mitigate leakage current, Bohr said.

“Qualcomm won’t be able to use that [20 nm] process,” Bohr told me in an impromptu discussion at yesterday’s press event where Intel announced its Ivy Bridge CPUs made in its tri-gate 22 nm process. “The foundry model is collapsing,” he told me.

Of course Intel would like the world to believe that only it can create the complex semiconductor technology the world needs. Not TSMC that serves competitors like Qualcomm or GlobalFoundries that makes chips for Intel’s archrival AMD.

Intel used the Ivy Bridge event to spin the tale of how part of the secret to its success is its close partnership between process and chip designers.

Kirk Skaugen, the new general manager of Intel’s client PC group, moderated a Q&A with Bohr and Brad Heaney, the Ivy Bridge program manager. In addition to working together on Intel’s first CPUs using 3-D transistors, the two collaborated on Intel’s first processors using high-K metal gate technology.

“Being an integrated device manufacturer really helps us solve the problems dealing with devices this small and complex,” Bohr said in the Q&A.

I don’t doubt that for a minute. Since the dawn of submicron design, EE Times has been writing about the need for ever closer collaboration between chip and process designers. An Nvidia physical design exec underlined the same point in a recent talk at Mentor Graphics’ annual user group meeting.

But Bohr stretches the point too far when he says the foundries and fabless companies won’t be able to follow where Intel is going. I have heard top TSMC and GlobalFoundries R&D managers make a good case that 3-D transistors won’t be needed until the 14 nm generation. For its part, TSMC said at 20 nm there is not enough wiggle room to create significant variations for high performance versus low power processes.

I neglected to ask Bohr whether Intel has separate high performance and low power processes in its 22 nm technology. (Anyone from Intel is welcome to chime in here.)

However, in an open Q&A, Bohr said Intel has completed work on an SoC-specific version of its process technology. It plans going forward to have an SoC variant a quarter or two after each main process is complete.

For its part, Qualcomm would not provide its opinions on TSMC’s 20 nm plans. The company did say in its recent quarterly earnings call it can’t get enough 28 nm technology from TSMC to meet product demand, so it is working to develop multiple new sources it expects will come online later this year.

That’s a big opportunity for a GlobalFoundries, UMC or other fabs to step up. Given the close sharing of design details required to make 28 nm SoCs, it’s more of a risk than an opportunity for Qualcomm to work with Samsung’s foundry folks, Bohr said, given Samsung has its own Exynos mobile SoCs.

I asked Bohr to whom Intel is providing access to its 22 nm process besides two announced partners—Achronix and Netronome. He only said that Intel does not want to be in the general foundry business, but it makes its technology available to a few strategic partners.

Intel has no monopoly on smart process technology engineers and designers. But it does have some brilliant ones, and it has learned to market them smartly. Bohr and Heaney even appeared yesterday in another one of Intel’s playful videos shrinking the two engineers so they could tour the insides of an Ivy Bridge chip.

Looking ahead, Bohr said Intel has finished characterizing its next-generation 14 nm process using immersion lithography. It even has “encouraging results” suggesting it will be able to use immersion litho for the 10 nm node that is still in early planning phase.

“We think we have a [10nm] solution using immersion lithography— we’d love to have extreme ultraviolet [EUV] lithography, but we are not counting on it,” said Bohr in the event Q&A.

As a follow up, I asked whether Intel has other new process tricks like 3-D transistors at 14 and 10 nm. His answer: “Yes!”

I love it when companies celebrate and provide access to their top engineers. But I hate it when they are so well trained by their PR departments.



[Johnny: It is also an indication of the cost of achieving the next generation of higher densities. There are not too many players left that have the deep pockets to fund new fabrication facilities and they take years to built and to get the yields up to acceptable levels.]

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47852)5/1/2012 11:17:03 PM
From: Johnny Canuck   of 49914
 
Despite the low reading in the VIX the lack of a consistent pattern in the market from day to day indicates a lack of conviction on the part of traders. The low VIX just indicates the intra-day and inter-day moves have not been extremely large on individual stocks.



On a day without significant economic news and company earnings news the market looks like it wants to go up. Keep in mind the employment report is Friday.




DOW finished at a new 42 week high. The volume picked up later in the day as conviction grew
in the move. There is still no new high in the DOW transport.





DOW transport still in a tight consolidation pattern.





Indecisive consolidation pattern on the COMPQ. No one is sure which way this will go.




Consolidation pattern on the financials.




Gold in a consolidation pattern.




Energy transitioning out of the sell signal.



Russell small cap index negated its sell signal a few days ago and is now in a consolidation pattern.
Traders are looking for direction and they are not finding it.



Nat gas generated a buy signal today as it confirmed the move on Friday. It looks like traders are anticipating the end of the shoulder season which is about 4 weeks away.



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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47853)5/2/2012 2:06:33 AM
From: Johnny Canuck   of 49914
 
Modified scan results 163 candidates.

Ticker
AAPL
ABV
ACAS
ACAT
ACN
ADP
ADSK
AE
AFL
AGN
AGU
ALGN
ALXN
AMOT
ARB
BBBY
BBRG
BIIB
BODY
CAMP
CBI
CEO
CF
CHD
CHRM
CLCT
CMG
CRYP
CVE
CVU
CVV
CYAN
CYBX
DHX
DKS
DLTR
DORM
DOX
DSW
DUSA
EBAY
EDU
EGHT
ESP
FDS
FEIC
FFIV
FHCO
FOSL
GA
GMAN
GORO
GPC
GPRC
GRA
GRMN
HCII
HCKT
HCSG
HIBB
HSIC
HUB-B
HXL
IMMU
IMO
INT
IPGP
IPHS
ISRG
JAZZ
JKHY
JOBS
KAI
KED
KINS
KRO
KWR
LCRY
LQDT
LULU
LZB
MANH
MCRS
MELI
MGIC
MIND
MNST
MR
MWIV
MYGN
NEU
NHI
NKE
NRCI
NRT
NTES
NTGR
NVO
ORBT
ORLY
PCLN
PCP
PCYC
PFBC
PII
PNRA
POZN
PSMT
PWRD
PZZA
QCOR
RAVN
RDA
RGR
ROSE
ROST
RUE
SAM
SAVE
SCL
SCLN
SHFL
SHOO
SIG
SKUL
SLB
STE
STMP
SWI
SXI
SYK
SYNT
SYRG
TARO
TCX
TDC
TDY
TGA
TGE
TJX
TKR
TNH
TPL
TRCR
TRR
TSCO
TSS
UA
UAN
UG
USNA
USPH
VASC
VCLK
VIVO
VLTR
VMI
VMW
VRTS
WD
WDFC
WLL
WSM
WX



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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47854)5/2/2012 2:25:48 AM
From: Johnny Canuck   of 49914
 
Energy sector


BNP.TO still in a down trend. Bouncing off a short term bottom. Resistance at $20 and $22.




Potential short term trend change.




Significant trend change in SU.TO. SU.TO is surrogate for the energy sector. OBV break indicated there is strength to this move.




ECA.TO indicates a significant trend changes has occurred. The acceleration in volume indicate the move has conviction. It has cleared the support level at $20. This is a strong support level.




XOM consolidating at a strong support level. New high on the OBV indicate strength in the move.




Similar OBV high on RDS.A Price crossing the 50 day SMA indicates a trend change is underway.




Small cap oil and gas stocks not leading this move.








On the other hand oil service stocks are still on the defensive and in negative or neutral trend.
















It looks like big cap oil and gas producers are moving first in a potential strong trend change for the sector.
I would expect these sectors to move first as they are safer bets for traders as opposed to the mid to small caps that may has cashflow problems as credit tightens are lenders take a risk off approach.


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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47855)5/2/2012 2:34:13 AM
From: Johnny Canuck   of 49914
 
CNQ.TO undergoing a trend change.



cos.to undergoing a trend change, but resistance is just above this level.



rpl.v in no man's land. No signal yet.





wfe.to at a strong support level. No idea which direction it will break in.




gte.to on a buy signal, but running into resistance.



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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47856)5/2/2012 12:18:48 PM
From: Johnny Canuck2 Recommendations   of 49914
 


Technical and Seasonal Sell Signals Are in Place: Hirsch



By Jeff Macke


Now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI) is back to 52-week highs, it's a great time to take profits or even think about getting short some stock, according to Jeff Hirsch, president and editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac. In part one of Breakout's conversation with Hirsch, he discusses the "Sell in May, Go Away" rule of thumb. Taking it one step further, Hirsch sees enough suffering ahead to suggest trying on some shorts. "The run from October until now has confirmed the seasonal trend view," offers Hirsch in the attached video. In addition, he sees an economic picture taking shape that includes the rolling over of a complicated technical formation called " Three Peaks and a Domed House."

If that's not enough, a momentum indicator known as the MACD gave Hirsch a sell signal back on April 3. All of which is a lot of technical jargon boiling down to his belief that it's time to take the other side of the rally by going bearish.

"One of our new favorites is the Adviser Shares Active Bear Fund ( HDGE) exchange traded fund," says Hirsch. "They use pretty active timing methods, shorting mid and small cap stocks."

Such a technique typically leads to more pronounced movements than the underlying market in both up and down tapes. (Hirsch discloses that he has long HDGE shares and has a "collegial" relationship with the fund manager.)

Hirsch has a dim view of "everything with a ticker," with exception of the above ETF and a couple of bond plays. He's "parking money" in iShares Barclays 7—10 year Treasury Bond Fund ( IEF), as well as the popular iShares Barclays 20 year Treasury Bond ETF ( TLT).

They're aggressive strategies ill-suited to those inclined to ride out the storm. If you're a gunslinger—or at least someone not opposed to incurring some fees in an attempt to capture the 10—15% move Hirsch sees coming—he thinks betting against small caps and parking in bonds is the short-term play of choice.

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47857)5/2/2012 6:57:32 PM
From: Johnny Canuck   of 49914
 
Vancouver housing slows to a crawl





Steve Ladurantaye, The Globe and Mail
4:12 PM, E.T. | May 2, 2012

The spring housing market has slowed to a crawl in Vancouver, with April seeing the fewest monthly sales in more than a decade and the number of unsold houses piling up.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Wednesday there were 2,799 sales in the region in April, down 13.2 percent from a year ago and 2.6-percent lower than a weaker-than-usual March. The spring market is key for buyers and sellers, as families try and arrange summer moves.

It was the lowest for April sales since 2001, and 16.9 percent below the 10-year average.

Market watchers have expressed concern that the city may be experiencing a bubble, as cheap credit helps push prices higher and families deeper into debt. While the concern is for markets across the country, there is particular worry about Vancouver and Toronto.

Despite the weak sales, prices continue to edge higher in the city. The index the board uses to track prices showed them up 3.7 per cent from a year ago, to $683,800.

The number of new listings increased 3.6 percent from March. The number of houses for sale is 6.7 percent above the region's 10-year average, as sellers look to cash out at what may be the top of the market. There are 16,538 houses for sale in the region, the board said, up 16 per cent from a year ago.

Toronto reports its numbers Thursday, and the Canadian Real Estate Association reports national figures on the 15th of each month.

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47858)5/2/2012 11:20:21 PM
From: robert b furman   of 49914
 
No Worries - it only takes 6-8 years of no sales and then the prices are @ 65 % 9f th4 current level.

I thought sub prime was the problem and Canada didn't do that???

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (47859)5/3/2012 12:32:42 AM
From: Johnny Canuck   of 49914
 
I think it is a illusion. that Canada is better off in all sectors then the USA. There is an article that suggested that the Bank of Canada lent 100 billions dollars to the Canadian banks during the crisis in 2008. The article suggest it would have been cheaper to buy the bank's stock on the open market and take them private instead of lending them the money. The banks are not as liquid and secure as the government and the banks would have you believe according to the article.

Keep in mind the centre for policy alternative is either a left leaning or right leaning think tank. I can't remember which way their research is biased.

policyalternatives.ca 


montrealgazette.com 

The reality is that the banking system is still broken. None of the loop holes that created the problems have been fixed and new loop wholes are being exploited.

The profits are some of the banks are an illusion also as they can borrow at new 0% and easily make 3 to 4 % be leaning it to other organization at low risk. What happens when interest rates rise and the loan portfolio is locked in at lower rates?

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