Technology Stocks | Netcom


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To: Curtis Gruber who wrote (1782)9/10/1997 7:25:00 PM
From: Richard Makowiec   of 2601
 
Yeah I know...I probably phrased that one incorrectly. By hitting his desk I actually meant the telephone ringing. I don't claim to know alot about the internal affairs over there, I speculate alot (and know nothing). I would be willing to wager a bunch of my dollars that the phone has rang several times though.

Also, if anybody thinks that companies like Worldcom and AT&T havn't sent the feelers out to Garrison -via- phone or a scout on a Golf course think again. I can't even imagine a company like Worldcom not exploring the price for NETC before buying CSRV. More than likely they had to do it just as a matter of getting a "Comparable" quote for the final decision...high probability this happened. Doesn't mean that they were interested in Netcom at any point in time (who knows though they may have been until they got the sticker shock).

As far as notifying shareholders of offers, well as I understand it they only have to do that if it is indeed a bonified and formal offer.
That's because it's documented and hiding all that paper can be difficult...really no choice here you have to announce it. I have seen other companies announce verbal offers or intents but that usually is part of a hype campaign and is dangerous if it lacks any truth. Nope, far as I know the phone can ring all day long with offers and we would never know. The safety for DG is how do you prove it?

Anyway, this sector heated up quick...unfortunately NETC is odd-man-out again. Wish this thing would get a hostile attempt for a takeover. The best candidate for this may be @home (IMHO..they have the means...alot of equity over there in the shares). How many companies do you know that have cable? Plucking NETC sure would help them expand that @work division quick...real quick I might add. C'mon Hutchison, convince the brass over there to take your ole buddy DG out on a hostile...I'm sure you will receive alot of satisfaction from that one:):):)

Pure speculation on my part (above) and I wouldn't waste a dime investing in Netcom for that possibility alone!

Curtis, you still watching ESST? I'm looking for a pop on that one soon(1-3 weeks).

Rich

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To: bill who wrote (1785)9/10/1997 9:20:00 PM
From: Curtis Gruber   of 2601
 
I hear you bill, but that is the part that kinda troubles me, we can make statements that he is only looking out for himself(I am guilty too), but when I think about it, I am not basing that type of statement on any evidence I have. The frustration of a languishing stock price and hearing little from the company can make shareholders assume that management is only looking out for themselves. And, hey, maybe they are, I have no idea...and maybe they are not...only they know this, and you can bet they're not telling.

Where's that bug we were gonna plant? Didn't we volunteer you to do that, Bill? I can't remember...lol...guess we need a phone tap.

regards,
cg

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To: Richard Makowiec who wrote (1786)9/10/1997 9:26:00 PM
From: Curtis Gruber   of 2601
 
Yeah, Rich, I'm sure you're right....WCOM and T, even AOL have to shop around and compare prices, I'm sure lots of invitations for golf or lunches took place. Is D.G. thinking of himself? Of course. Is D.G. thinking of shareholders? Of course. But how balanced is it...70/30...or 50/50...or 20/80....hmmm, wish we could read minds.

@home? Yup, join the list of viable suitors. I could write a book report on how many companies should be interested in NETC, IMHO. Why has no one extended a formal offer?or hostile bid? NETC buyout is chump change compared to BBN, CSRV or what PSIX is worth now and/or what they would be asking.

Soon, I hope, the sector is heating up, doesn't mean that NETC is being looked at more closely...of course we won't know till it happens....

regards,
cg(keeping one eye on ESST for entrance pt)

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To: Richard Makowiec who wrote (1786)9/10/1997 9:51:00 PM
From: Michael Kim   of 2601
 
OK, we've got the volume, now we just need price movement. Heads up boys, that's quite a lot of shares to trade ALL OF A SUDDEN, and the price didn't crash. Tells me that there are still some out there who have the cash to keep this baby propped up. Seems that this may be similar to the activity we saw as we moved up from 9-10 range. Are we poised for another breakout? That's the only conclusion I can come up with, how else could over 500k shares trade without causing a crash in the price? Someone's setting themselves up for a pop.

Re: Offers on the desk. I concur, only bona fide offers will be made public. Remember IBM and Apple had some serious discussions about a buyout way back when, but both companies also denied it as the rumor spread.

I do think that DG has been gradually getting the company dressed for a sale. Witness emphasis on reducing the losses, cash burn, bringing in high-profile (??) telco player Yost. These are all good moves, but the market obviously needs more to become believers again. I think ISDEX made a comment about NETC's one-time flight up to 90 as holding the stock back. Makes some sense to me, a lot of people got burned in the fall, now they're gun-shy. The Street still is saying "show me".

Still, at a buck over book value, I would think that now would be the time to strike for the raiders. Why not bid now and get it cheap, better than waiting for it to hit 30 and then making an offer. So, I'm sure DG has rejected all the "low-ballers", and maybe the word's out that the company is "priced to keep", and that keeps it out of play.

Well, now I'm rambling...

Regards,

MK

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To: Curtis Gruber who wrote (1788)9/10/1997 9:57:00 PM
From: Richard Makowiec   of 2601
 
<<< NETC buyout is chump change compared to BBN,CSRV or what PSIX is worth now and/or what they would be asking>>>

Totally agree here. With our luck the next one that gets nailed will be PSIX...or worse yet what if CNCX or OZEMY get taken out? They are already trading hire than NETC (share price, as is ELNK and MSPG). If one of those lightweights gets absorbed before NETC it will surely mean DG isn't interested is selling.

Maybe NETC got overlooked when compared to BBN or DIGX...but if get's overlooked compared to OZEMY or CNCX...nah, couldn't be, must mean the DG is hanging the phone up when anything comes around. Maybe he's to worried about that new mansion he's building and finds comfort in knowing his palace will be there the next morning, paying no attention as to whether Netcom will be!

I dunno anymore, strictly a value play for me again. Kinda getting tired of it like the rest of the thread, but oh well...one more window for me. Maybe a new CFO appointment will juice things up a bit (if the street welcomes the selection).

It's times like this that I am thankful for learning early to not jump in full force in any stock. Time multiple entries and you will usually do better. I don't think NETC could base in single digits for a substantial period of time, but I do think it could be driven there again. If so, perhaps spreading out the entries again will give me a nice average price so if the dog never gets bought I will probably still be able to exit on tiny little gains as it creeps back.

I really have to be careful on the option plays for this one since they will "EAT YOU ALIVE". One good score can make up for alot of losers...problem is if he(DG) doesn't sell, the big spike may never come. Sure he could turn the company profitable and the share price will go up...but the boys will make sure the ascend is slow moving and options will make no big money as it trades upward. Only holding shares long will benefit from that trend up, if it can even happen.

I sure hope I didn't jinx Netcom at the beginning of this post by mentioning CNCX and OZEMY, it truly would be a nightmare if they got absorbed first:(:(:(

Have a nice night,
Rich

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To: Michael Kim who wrote (1789)9/10/1997 10:20:00 PM
From: Richard Makowiec   of 2601
 
<<< ...how else could over 500k shares trade without causing a crash in the price?>>>

Yep MK I seen that one too and was wondering. Sometimes it indicates the boys (houses who make a market in NETC) are paddling shares across the tape to eachother, thus they protect the price movement. I know, I know...there I go again with my conspiracy theory. Well, it does happen and they do it for whatever reason they want. From the stock guru's I've talked with during my investing career it seems this does happen more than we think. I've been told they can make this paddling "visible" and "invisible". If this is what happened today clearly it is visible since it was done in large blocks -vrs- small 5-10k ones.

Thought about it being some program "sells" on the block too. Just had a hard time understanding who would have sizable chunks like that up there and so close to the trading open price (easy pickins for the MM's or a house if they want them). I figure about 9-10 mil shares are not easily shaken at this point (thus no big block sells with limits), Instead, that 2 mill "true" float may be getting some manipulation here and probably wasn't a program trade or a major holder bailing out...just an opinion.

Might be other reasons for the move also, but I pretty much believe in the one I stated above the most. Not sure what the motive here was though...probably a simple tranfer or payoff of an "IOU".

I sure wish I knew who bought and sold the approx. $ 60,000 in Jan/98
12 1/2's today?

Rich

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To: Richard Makowiec who wrote (1790)9/10/1997 10:25:00 PM
From: Michael Kim   of 2601
 
Most definitely NETC is "chump change" compared to other ISPs. Only play for an acquirer is HOSTILE - put it to the shareholders!

DG must've hung up on so many people by now that the word is "If you want Netcom, you're going to have to pay $50/share." HA! I don't think you have say this too many times before your phone STOPS ringing.

I say it's gotta be hostile.

MK

P.S. I like the possibility of ATHM giving it a shot.

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To: Richard Makowiec who wrote (1790)9/11/1997 12:04:00 AM
From: Curtis Gruber   of 2601
 
Oh dear, if that happens Rich, you are officially banned from the thread(regarding OZEMY or CNCX)....lol..hope it doesn't happen....what is funny(not really) is that ELNK and MSPG trade higher, yet not even comparing revenues, just look at the cash position and how much NETC is holding compared to the pennies the other two have left.

I fear the same. If the lightweights get taken out before NETC, then it may be better for us to take our little profits/losses and head over to ESST or SVGI, or really any company for that matter cuz this pup is comatose.

regards,
cg

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To: Michael Kim who wrote (1789)9/11/1997 12:04:00 AM
From: Curtis Gruber   of 2601
 
<<<The Street still is saying "show me".>>>

How long I ask ? How long will the Street say "show me the profitibility"....how long will I hear mention from ISDEX or Joe Kernan about the 'run to 90'.

If the street is still distrusting of NETC because of this then I don't know what to say. I vote for the manipulation theory. The moves up to $17 and the strength we saw recently is not a lack of faith, it is manipulation, as is the run back down to $12.50.

I don't know what these holders of those 10 million shares of NETC want, and I don't know if they are making a profit, but I wish they would clue us in on what's happening.

g'night,
cg

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To: Michael Kim who wrote (1792)9/11/1997 12:04:00 AM
From: Curtis Gruber   of 2601
 
<<< pay $50/share." >> Lol..even D.G. couldn't be that dillusional(sp)..that would be very close to BBN range...I wish we could somehow find out, but I would bet that D.G. hasn't got an offer over 325 million.

We'll never know, but fun to speculate, unless you're us of course, sitting on dead money.(grimace)

cheerio,
cg

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