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From: William F. Wager, Jr.10/11/2005 10:05:31 AM
   of 154012
 
Apple's Next Big Thing...

By Troy Wolverton
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
10/11/2005 7:12 AM EDT

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To: RX4PROFIT who wrote (47974)10/11/2005 10:31:02 AM
From: John Carragher   of 154012
 
dam i added just before close last night. we shall see what happens after earnings, qtr forecast and news on wed.

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To: RX4PROFIT who wrote (47974)10/11/2005 10:41:04 AM
From: William F. Wager, Jr.   of 154012
 
Apple's earnings/conference call should be interesting since
analysts polled by Thomson First Call are expecting the company to post earnings of 37 cents a share for the quarter on $3.73 billion in sales.

That projection is ahead of the company's own estimates and would mark a big gain over last year's results. In July, Apple executives predicted that the company would earn 32 cents a share on $3.5 billion in sales in its fourth quarter -- an outlook that, even at the time it was made, seemed conservative to many on the Street.

As usual, guidance going forward (if any) will be crucial. I will be downloading the podcast of the cc when it is available at apple.com 

Bill

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To: Cogito who wrote (47972)10/11/2005 11:16:05 AM
From: William F. Wager, Jr.   of 154012
 
Earnings Preview: Apple Computer...

Tuesday October 11, 10:52 am ET
Strong 4Q Earnings Seen From Apple on Surging IPod Demand


NEW YORK (AP) -- Apple Computer Inc. reports earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter after the closing bell Tuesday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.

EXPECTATIONS: In July, Apple forecast earnings of 32 cents per share and revenue of about $3.5 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for a profit of 37 cents per share on $3.74 billion in sales, up sharply from income of 14 cents and sales of $2.35 billion in the year-ago period.

ANALYST TAKE: Lifted by the early September debut of its newest iPod, Apple is expected to top Wall Street estimates as it continues dominating the digital music market. But analysts say investors are already looking ahead to Apple's December quarter and question whether the company will be able to meet lofty targets. "While Apple is positioned to dramatically exceed its guidance ... given strong early success of its iPod nano launch and robust notebook demand in the education quarter, the key remains Apple's ability to deliver enough upside to its results against a rising tide of investor expectations," Bear Stearns analyst Andrew Neff wrote in a research note.

QUARTER DEVELOPMENTS: Apple saw an explosive launch of the credit card-sized iPod Nano and continues seeing increased demand for its laptops, although its share of the computer market is still barely 3 percent. Last quarter also saw the delayed release of an iTunes-compatible cell phone from Motorola Inc. as the company strives to broaden its music-downloading service. The company has sold more than 500 million tracks on iTunes and some 22 million iPods to date.

COMPETITORS: Analysts estimate Apple's iTunes has about 80 percent of the online music market, with its rivals -- including RealNetworks Inc., Napster Inc., Yahoo Inc. and Microsoft Corp. -- battling for the remainder of the pie. Despite a range of cheaper Windows-based media devices hitting the market this year, the wildly popular iPod remains the clear leader.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: In the third quarter, Apple shares surged more than 45 percent. The stock is up 66.5 percent so far this year. Shares were recently up 50 cents at $50.87 on the Nasdaq.

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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (47968)10/11/2005 11:49:25 AM
From: Moominoid   of 154012
 
It's running up, now - lot of volatility - so maybe noone knows anything...

My reasoning is based on what William F Wager posted above. AAPL forecast 32 and the analysts said 37 so maybe this time they are right?

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To: Moominoid who wrote (47979)10/11/2005 11:59:47 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw   of 154012
 
To me, this looks like the first quarter where the consensus has converged on an Apple sandbag. I think that assumption will still be ok this quarter, which will then technically be a "meets expectations", and run into trouble next quarter.

Just a few more hours to see. I'm in que sera, sera mode.

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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (47980)10/11/2005 12:17:31 PM
From: OrionX   of 154012
 
WLD,

Next qtr, actually current one, is a Xmas qtr where IMO Apple will do extremely well. Unless expectations set are out of this world, Apple will no doubt beat, again.

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To: OrionX who wrote (47981)10/11/2005 12:39:53 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw   of 154012
 
Unless expectations set are out of this world...

Exactly what I'm hoping for.

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From: RX4PROFIT10/11/2005 12:42:41 PM
   of 154012
 
DJ HERB GREENBERG: Why I hate My iPod

By Herb Greenberg, A Dow Jones Column, 11 Oct 09:28

SAN DIEGO (Dow Jones)--It's hard not to be impressed with the turnaround at Apple Computer (AAPL), or the general beauty of the iPod and the overall marketing of the Mac.

But I have a gripe and something tells me I'm not alone: My iPod is terrible if I use it while running for any longer than 20 minutes or so. It doesn't really matter if I have it on an arm strap, as salespeople advised when I bought mine almost a year ago. There was certainly no reason to think the iPod would consistently freeze after 20 minutes, which isn't cool if you like to run for any period of time over 20 minutes, as I do - and like listening to music while you're doing it!

Despite having a finicky hard drive, iPod print ads show someone who appears to be dancing while holding an iPod. On its Web site, Apple says that "jogging along the beach" is one of the things you can do with an iPod. In an FAQ on the same Web site - in response to the question, "Can I use iPod while running or doing other activities?" - the company says the iPod "was designed for people with an active lifestyle" and boasts that it has "up to 20 minutes of skip protection." Interestingly enough, there is little consistency in company promotions about the amount of skip protection. A comparison chart of iPods on the Web site says the iPod has 17 minutes of skip protection. Yet among "iPod features," Apple boasts that you can "jog without fear - 25 minutes of skip protection."

What happens after 17, 20 or 25 minutes? The iPod doesn't skip - it just stops! And it's not easy to reset while you're running without stopping and giving the device a chance to settle down.

This wasn't a problem at first. The iPod worked beautifully during my normal 40- to 50-minute runs. But then the problems started, first sporadically with strange skipping. Now it's daily and occurs at almost the same spot on my running route.

Several trips to the "Genius Lab" at my local Apple store didn't help, other than to be reminded that the iPod wasn't really built for runners. (Well, then why do they say it was designed for "active" people and that I can "jog without fear"?) I was also told to update the software on my iPod. I did - didn't help.

I was also told to disable my Norton Anti-Virus while doing any updates; did that, too. (Funny, they don't tell windows users to do that before there's a problem.)

A quick check of message boards at iPod support on Apple's Web site shows plenty of other runners who use the iPod feel as cheated out of $249 as I do. As one person wrote, "There's truth, and then there's advertising."

I think Apple can do better, and this is my suggestion: For goodwill's sake, give current iPod users claiming exercise-related freezing one-time amnesty to swap their iPod for 50% off on an iPod Nano, which doesn't have a hard drive. (I don't care if the Nano scratches easily, as long as it works!)

It's not as if Apple hasn't had problems with its iPods before. Earlier this year the company agreed to settle a class-action lawsuit over batteries in early iPod models that lost their ability to hold a charge.

I hope Apple is listening, because this iPod experience is leaving me with a bitter taste. But I'm not holding my breath. After explaining the issues to Apple's public relations department - and after several days of waiting for a response - Apple declined comment.

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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (47980)10/11/2005 1:35:12 PM
From: Moominoid   of 154012
 
If AAPL fans think it will again beat expectations and it doesn't and just meets, then maybe the stock will be in trouble. I reduced my position. We will see soon!

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