>>this is an investment board, so I hope my question don't offend anyone.. Does everyone read Apple earning report or all of us just talk through our wag??? I thought they layout their sales by region and I copy them on my previous couple posts. Does anyone even bother to look at those number? It look to be Europe, Japan and US add up to about 2/3 of Apple income in 4Q11. Can someone enlighten me as to when will China and other developing countries will overtake US/Europe/Japan sales and by how much??<<
I read all the reports, listen to the conference calls, and generally try to keep up. I know that a lot of the other people here do the same. But we are individuals, and our priorities differ.
I'd like to know when China and other fast-developing nations will overtake the western world in sales, too, but that would require seeing the future. A lot of analysts make projections, but they can only look at past and present trends, make adjustments based on assumptions, and create forecasts based on that. You've done the same thing with your analysis of the smartphone market for the next few years.
If your assumptions are close to being correct, you have a better chance of predicting the future correctly. But there are always unforeseen events along the way,so you never know.I have no problem with the logic you have applied in your analysis. I have only quibbled with some of your assumptions.
PS: As RoyBatty said, of course nobody is offended by your questions regarding whether we read the earnings reports. You seem to be sincerely seeking information. |
