With every new $100 level increment in Apple‘s (AAPL) stock price, we hear a chorus of worrywarts on business TV saying it just can’t continue.
It’s unprecedented, they say. Apple’s now too big. Steve Jobs is gone. Everyone likes it. It’s a bubble.
Yet, no company this big before has ever had the opportunities and relatively low market share that Apple now has. And Steve’s greatness actually masked how good the rest of the team is.
We’re at $600 now, but I think Apple has much further to go from here. If things play out as I expect, Apple will hit $1,650 by the end of 2015. Here’s how.
This is the most ignored part of the Apple portfolio. It has consistently grown faster than the PC industry. Macs grew their revenues 26% Y/Y in the last quarter and 22% for the last fiscal year. Macs’ growth rate is actually increasing over time. The Apple halo effect is truly starting to take hold.
And PCs aren’t dead yet. The PC industry grew at 10% last year. As of today, Macs represent only 9% of the PC market.
If the growth rate continues, Macs could sell 55 million units in 2015 – up from 17 million last year.
It’s hard to believe this is a new category created from scratch 2 years ago and is now 20% of Apple’s revenues. (Remember most thought it was a dud 2 years ago and fixated on the “dumb” name? Jobs, himself, was depressed with the initial reaction.)