Jefferies Raises EPS Estimates on Apple (AAPL), Comments on Japan Trip 6:52 am ET 11/22/2011 - Street Insider Jefferies reiterated their Buy rating and raised EPS estimates on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) following a recent visit to Japan.
Based on checks, analyst Peter Misek believes that Sharp is taking share in iPad 3, iPhone 5 LTE, and iTV displays. They also believe that the Samsung relationship continues to deteriorate.
The firm cut their calendar fourth quarter iPad shipment estimates from 17 million to 13 million, but is still above the Street consensus of 13 million. "We believe reports have overstated the iPad weakness as they have not accounted for inventory at Hon Hai, iPad 3 production starting in CQ4, and Sharp's share gain," Misek stated.
CQ4 revenues estimates were cut from $38.6B to $38.3B (consensus of $37.9B) but our EPS rises from $9.79 to $9.85 (consensus of $9.66). The firm sees FY2012 EPS of $35.50, up from $33.26 (consensus of $34.63).
Apple reserved about $600 million worth of revenues last quarter as they head back towards a greatly reduced version of subscription accounting. As deferred revenues grow over the next few quarters, that will eventually produce some bigger revenue comps next year.
Samsung getting ready to launch Google TV next year. Smart TV's will be a nice source of revenue growth for Apple next year if they can produce an all in one iOS TV. No reason for TV's not to have cameras, memory, internet access and all the other bells and whistles.
iPhone is a great opportunity for the US to cut back export dollars to Samsung and LG. The US is probably exporting $30 billion a year just for Samsung phones. If the iPhone sells 10 million units a quarter in the US, that keeps $24 billion a year from going to Samsung and other handset companies outside the US. It would be nice to see T Mobile join the pack next year. Always more room for growth with Apple's market share as they cover more segments of the market in the US, Japan, China, and elsewhere.
Apple and Sharp are getting it on! iPad 3 production from a new partner like Sharp would help reduce Apple's relationship with Samsung. I think it would improve distribution of Apple products in Japan too. I wonder if Sharp doesn't become a production partner for an iOS TV down the road. There is no way that Apple will want to have anything to do with Samsung when that product comes around. Better to find a producer in Japan. Samsung is way too cozy with Google, and they plan on rolling out Google TV next year - not that anyone has noticed Google TV since it rolled out last year.
I was playing with my Apple TV this weekend for the first time in a year. Not much to do with that platform. 2012 will be the year of the Smart TV rollout which is long overdue.
>>... I was playing with my Apple TV this weekend for the first time in a year. Not much to do with that platform. 2012 will be the year of the Smart TV rollout which is long overdue.
Not much to do? I'm not so sure about that. When I have guests, they seem to gravitate toward using the Apple TV over the Dish Network satellite feed. The have their own Netflix accounts and are used to watching movies. Oddly, they don't have their own Apple TV's though.
Then there's the music feed from iTunes. With two TVs and two computers in the house, I can feed the same iTunes playlist to four different locations at the same time. That's soon to be five after I get outdoor speakers set up with an Airport wifi. Each location has an independent volume control from the feeding iTunes, so it's possible to fill the house with any level of music for any sort of occasion. I use it when I'm house cleaning mostly.
My least used function, though still somewhat useful, is feeding home made movies from iTunes to the TV.
I have to admit though, the Apple TV is not something I use every day, or even every week for that matter.