Thus, if one relies on fundamentals, the shares are reasonably priced at current levels.
Interesting take since you said overpriced in the 30's, drowning in debt, etc etc. At no time have you ever recommended buying the stock, but have continued with your various warnings and academic dissertations. Now, near the top, you find it reasonably priced. Yet somehow you think you've always been right.
Your track record here just hasn't been very good, and I think is further confirmation of the downturn ahead. Those who followed my advice 18 months ago, can follow it now and lock in a more than 100% profit.
The present price near $46 should be sustainable and, if economic conditions improve, could allow WDC shares to recover to the mid $50s, perhaps in the next six months. I doubt very much that some analyst predictions of price gains to $60 or more will materialize even in a year.
$500 was not wishful thinking. It was a reasonable long term target based on continuity of the business. Things have changed. You have a huge unrealized gain in place, based on listening to my calls, and appear to be upset that I now say the landscape is changed. Be happy for the gains, and not upset that I have changed direction.
Should things change, I will be back in. But I know better than to risk substantial gains on what is at this moment a roll of the dice. Yes, of course Bain wants to work with Western Digital, but it is not in Western Digital's interest to do so. Ignore my advice if you wish, but know that I have provided it.
You asked me privately last night what you should do, and I suggested you sell. I am truly sorry that you are not happy with my advice.
It helps to look at the fundamentals. They justify neither a price of $500 nor as low a price as $80. In fact, one might consider what might occur if WDC DOESN'T prevail at all. Earnings will continue to rise because of faster than expected growth in demand, especially for enterprise and cloud servers. And WDC will not be saddled with additional debt at a time when interest rates are beginning to rise. The issue that WDC can capitalize on, whether it owns or controls the rest of the joint venture, or whether that roughly half portion goes to a competitor, is the potential loss of its proprietary technology, most of which was developed by SanDisk. That issue may have to be resolved in court, and the threat to anyone buying Toshiba's half should be enough to make a generous deal with WDC more than just a wish.
Earnings will continue to rise because of faster than expected growth in demand,
And meaningless if you don't have the supply to meet the demand. All you need to do is go back to the SanDisk days and see what happened when they were supply constrained and couldn't meet demand. Rising earnings was not one of the things that happened.